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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - DF Justifying the X1X Price Point

NobleTeam360 on 18 June 2017

I could have sworn MS said the Xbox One X was basically for the gaming enthusiast. So I feel like a lot of the comments in this thread are quite redundant/pointless.



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haxxiy on 18 June 2017
JRPGfan said:
haxxiy said:

10-12 TF is indeed very feasible for the power envelope of a console on 7 nm. However, I'm slightly concerned with profitability at $399 since the cost per mm2 on a chip is increasing with every die shrink. A 300 mm2 chip on 7 nm might cost as much as a 400 mm2 chip on 14 nm, and Zen-like cores are huge, about 11 mm2 on 14 nm versus ~3 mm2 for the Jaguars on the same node.

Of course, I'm sure the folks at Sony and AMD are very aware of that and might be coming up with smart solutions that doesn't involve scaling down their next generation console way too close to the XOX and even the PS4 Pro for comfort. Maybe even two smaller separate dies on the same lid - say, a 100 mm2 CPU and a 200 mm2 GPU - is going to be cheaper than a single 300 mm2 design. AMD already has a similar technology on Infinity Fabric to make it work like a single die.

 

http://techreport.com/news/31402/amd-touts-zen-die-size-advantage-at-isscc

4 Cores, 8 Threads = 44mm2

Its gonna be less than that at 7nm.

Thats all they need 8 threads, and they should be backwards compatabile if they want.

With the IPC increase from Jaguar -> Zen+, that should be a huge upgrade in cpu performance.

 

That along with some newer Navi chip? around 10 Tflops... is my guess of what Playstation 5 looks like.

Im guessing GDDR6 is used (its faster, uses less power than GDDR5/GDDR5x), supposedly releaseing in 2018, by 2020 it should be cheap.

Playstation 5: (my guess)

Zen+ 4core/8thread ~3ghz

Navi GPU tech (10-12 Tflops)

16GB GDDR6

1TB 7200 RPM HDD (maybe by then 10,000 rpm is cheap enough?)

399$  & releases in 2020.

4 large cores at 3 GHz will consume 40-50W even at a smaller node, it will be far more feasible to have 8 cores at 2 GHz and consume around 30 W. The lesser PSU / cooling requirement and greater computing power will likely strongly outweight a slight increase on the  APU, not to mention native backwards compatibility, maybe?

Otherwise I very much agree with you, except about the pricing of certain components  like RAM decreasing (take for instance DDR4, its price has gone up consistently on the last two years). It's the same reason I don't think the Switch will ever have a pricecut, it competes directly with a very demanding mobile industry for its components.



 

 

 

 

 

Landguy on 18 June 2017
VGPolyglot said:
When I'm thinking of buying a console though, I don't base its price from its power, I base its price compared to the price of other consoles. So, I see its price, and then I see the price of other consoles, and it's just too expensive!

Based on that ideal, just head out and get a PS3 or X360.  Clearly the best deal for you.  

If you are going to compare it to something, it would have to be a PS4pro if that.  Seeing as how the pro doesn't have UHD drive, it is not really a good comparison.

If you don't want a UHD player or 4k visuals, then get a base PS4, as the reason to get a PS4Pro should not exist either for you.



It is near the end of the end....

xl-klaudkil on 18 June 2017

Sony is definitely not going to make the ps5 5 or 600 in 2018 or 2019 i have said this many times 2020 ps5 release @ 400 base model en 500 or 600 " pro"model



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

Plerpy_ on 18 June 2017

I don't doubt it's worth it specs wise, but at $649 AUD it's just too expensive. And without a killer app I can't help but ask what the point of it is (so essentially what my questions about the Pro were).

At least with the Pro at the moment you can get the console, three games and remote control for $539.



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DonFerrari on 18 June 2017
Plerpy_ said:
I don't doubt it's worth it specs wise, but at $649 AUD it's just too expensive. And without a killer app I can't help but ask what the point of it is (so essentially what my questions about the Pro were).

At least with the Pro at the moment you can get the console, three games and remote control for $539.

And on PS4Pro you at least had exclusives that couldn't be played better anywhere else to try and convice you.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

monocle_layton on 18 June 2017
cmay227 said:

I'm guessing most people who can't justify spending $500 on a xbox-x only upgrade their phones every 4 to 6 yrs?
If a person has a PC that can do most of what a xbox-x can do, then no it's not geared towards you. Most people do not have a PC that can do what a xbox-x can do. $499 is cheap for what it does. There's always gonna be a cheaper option for everything from food to cars to entertainment. The market is there. This generation is a anomaly in consoles. PS4 is selling a insane amount compared to any other generation. xbox one is doing fine as well. just not astronomical numbers like the ps4. That does not mean it's a failure. It's stupid to even think that. I like the majority of consumers buy a new phone every 2 years with a average cost of around $700. $500 for a console every 4 to 6 yrs is a very easy decision for me. I honestly don't see the issue unless it's just another reason to try and hate on MS.

$700 phones every two years is just flatout wasteful. I'm pretty sure the average consumer doesn't spend that much



DonFerrari on 18 June 2017
monocle_layton said:
cmay227 said:

I'm guessing most people who can't justify spending $500 on a xbox-x only upgrade their phones every 4 to 6 yrs?
If a person has a PC that can do most of what a xbox-x can do, then no it's not geared towards you. Most people do not have a PC that can do what a xbox-x can do. $499 is cheap for what it does. There's always gonna be a cheaper option for everything from food to cars to entertainment. The market is there. This generation is a anomaly in consoles. PS4 is selling a insane amount compared to any other generation. xbox one is doing fine as well. just not astronomical numbers like the ps4. That does not mean it's a failure. It's stupid to even think that. I like the majority of consumers buy a new phone every 2 years with a average cost of around $700. $500 for a console every 4 to 6 yrs is a very easy decision for me. I honestly don't see the issue unless it's just another reason to try and hate on MS.

$700 phones every two years is just flatout wasteful. I'm pretty sure the average consumer doesn't spend that much

Don't bother... it's obvious that the market for phones and consoles is about the same and the only reason phones sell more is because everyone is changing their phones every 6 months.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

tripenfall on 18 June 2017

A lot of the people complaining about a 6 teraflop console for $499 are the same people who pay $700 for a new iPhone EVERY YEAR. 



thismeintiel on 18 June 2017
JRPGfan said:
haxxiy said:

10-12 TF is indeed very feasible for the power envelope of a console on 7 nm. However, I'm slightly concerned with profitability at $399 since the cost per mm2 on a chip is increasing with every die shrink. A 300 mm2 chip on 7 nm might cost as much as a 400 mm2 chip on 14 nm, and Zen-like cores are huge, about 11 mm2 on 14 nm versus ~3 mm2 for the Jaguars on the same node.

Of course, I'm sure the folks at Sony and AMD are very aware of that and might be coming up with smart solutions that doesn't involve scaling down their next generation console way too close to the XOX and even the PS4 Pro for comfort. Maybe even two smaller separate dies on the same lid - say, a 100 mm2 CPU and a 200 mm2 GPU - is going to be cheaper than a single 300 mm2 design. AMD already has a similar technology on Infinity Fabric to make it work like a single die.

 

http://techreport.com/news/31402/amd-touts-zen-die-size-advantage-at-isscc

4 Cores, 8 Threads = 44mm2

Its gonna be less than that at 7nm.

Thats all they need 8 threads, and they should be backwards compatabile if they want.

With the IPC increase from Jaguar -> Zen+, that should be a huge upgrade in cpu performance.

 

That along with some newer Navi chip? around 10 Tflops... is my guess of what Playstation 5 looks like.

Im guessing GDDR6 is used (its faster, uses less power than GDDR5/GDDR5x), supposedly releaseing in 2018, by 2020 it should be cheap.

 

Playstation 5: (my guess)

Zen+ 4core/8thread ~3ghz

Navi GPU tech (10-12 Tflops)

16GB GDDR6

1TB 7200 RPM HDD (maybe by then 10,000 rpm is cheap enough?)

399$  & releases in 2020.

I'm guessing 2019.  Still $399, though.  Sony has found that sweet spot and I think they are going to stick with it.  And remember, Sony is fine with selling at a slight loss, so BOM can be ~$415.

I see a 1700 being used, with a slight possibilty for Zen+ if it comes out in time and is cheap enough, coupled with giving enough of a leap over a 1700.  Keep in mind, a 1700 is quite the leap over these Jaguar cores as it is, so they may not feel the need to include something more advanced.  Either way, I think it will definitely be 8 cores, as I'm sure that would make B/C with the PS4 much easier.

For the GPU, I see a Vega 10, with a slight possibilty of using a Vega 20, again, if it is out in time and cheap enough.  The Vega 10 is 12.5 Tflops, while the 20 is 15.  So, a Navi would be a higher Tflops than the 10-12 you estimate.  The advantage I see of using a 10, though, is that AMD already has a 10X2 scheduled to be released later this year.  Something that could easily go into a PS5 Pro, which would be ~22-24 Tflops.  And the problem with the Navi is it's been postponed til 2019, so I don't think it'll be ready to go into a PS5, especially whe thinking of pricepoints, even if it launches in 2020.

I do think it will come standard with a 1TB HDD.  And 16GB of GDDR6 or HBM2/3 will be used for the RAM, whichever is cheaper.  And I think it was you in another post that said 4K60FPS will be the standard.  I doubt that.  4K definitely will be, but I'm sure devs will still have some games at 30FPS to push the graphics a little more.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some use 4KCB to push them even more.  However, I think the days of less than 4K something as a games resolution will have stopped.

@ OP

As I stated in another thread, $500 in Nov is definitely not going to be worth the price.  $400 for the Pro was already pushing it at launch.  But, at least this year it will be $299-$349.  This Xmas, I'm sure you could get a decent gaming rig, with a better CPU and a GPU on par with the XBX for $500.  If MS had gone with a better CPU, sure, it would most definitely been worth it.  And if every game actually was capable of 4K.