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thismeintiel on 18 June 2017
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JRPGfan said:
haxxiy said:

10-12 TF is indeed very feasible for the power envelope of a console on 7 nm. However, I'm slightly concerned with profitability at $399 since the cost per mm2 on a chip is increasing with every die shrink. A 300 mm2 chip on 7 nm might cost as much as a 400 mm2 chip on 14 nm, and Zen-like cores are huge, about 11 mm2 on 14 nm versus ~3 mm2 for the Jaguars on the same node.

Of course, I'm sure the folks at Sony and AMD are very aware of that and might be coming up with smart solutions that doesn't involve scaling down their next generation console way too close to the XOX and even the PS4 Pro for comfort. Maybe even two smaller separate dies on the same lid - say, a 100 mm2 CPU and a 200 mm2 GPU - is going to be cheaper than a single 300 mm2 design. AMD already has a similar technology on Infinity Fabric to make it work like a single die.

 

http://techreport.com/news/31402/amd-touts-zen-die-size-advantage-at-isscc

4 Cores, 8 Threads = 44mm2

Its gonna be less than that at 7nm.

Thats all they need 8 threads, and they should be backwards compatabile if they want.

With the IPC increase from Jaguar -> Zen+, that should be a huge upgrade in cpu performance.

 

That along with some newer Navi chip? around 10 Tflops... is my guess of what Playstation 5 looks like.

Im guessing GDDR6 is used (its faster, uses less power than GDDR5/GDDR5x), supposedly releaseing in 2018, by 2020 it should be cheap.

 

Playstation 5: (my guess)

Zen+ 4core/8thread ~3ghz

Navi GPU tech (10-12 Tflops)

16GB GDDR6

1TB 7200 RPM HDD (maybe by then 10,000 rpm is cheap enough?)

399$  & releases in 2020.

I'm guessing 2019.  Still $399, though.  Sony has found that sweet spot and I think they are going to stick with it.  And remember, Sony is fine with selling at a slight loss, so BOM can be ~$415.

I see a 1700 being used, with a slight possibilty for Zen+ if it comes out in time and is cheap enough, coupled with giving enough of a leap over a 1700.  Keep in mind, a 1700 is quite the leap over these Jaguar cores as it is, so they may not feel the need to include something more advanced.  Either way, I think it will definitely be 8 cores, as I'm sure that would make B/C with the PS4 much easier.

For the GPU, I see a Vega 10, with a slight possibilty of using a Vega 20, again, if it is out in time and cheap enough.  The Vega 10 is 12.5 Tflops, while the 20 is 15.  So, a Navi would be a higher Tflops than the 10-12 you estimate.  The advantage I see of using a 10, though, is that AMD already has a 10X2 scheduled to be released later this year.  Something that could easily go into a PS5 Pro, which would be ~22-24 Tflops.  And the problem with the Navi is it's been postponed til 2019, so I don't think it'll be ready to go into a PS5, especially whe thinking of pricepoints, even if it launches in 2020.

I do think it will come standard with a 1TB HDD.  And 16GB of GDDR6 or HBM2/3 will be used for the RAM, whichever is cheaper.  And I think it was you in another post that said 4K60FPS will be the standard.  I doubt that.  4K definitely will be, but I'm sure devs will still have some games at 30FPS to push the graphics a little more.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some use 4KCB to push them even more.  However, I think the days of less than 4K something as a games resolution will have stopped.

@ OP

As I stated in another thread, $500 in Nov is definitely not going to be worth the price.  $400 for the Pro was already pushing it at launch.  But, at least this year it will be $299-$349.  This Xmas, I'm sure you could get a decent gaming rig, with a better CPU and a GPU on par with the XBX for $500.  If MS had gone with a better CPU, sure, it would most definitely been worth it.  And if every game actually was capable of 4K.