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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Splatoon 2 Will Outsell Splatoon This Year Alone


Will it?

Yes! 81 47.93%
No! 38 22.49%
Maybe 50 29.59%

Depends on the stock of Splatoon and Switches.

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I wouldn't say it's too bold. The game is gonna do insane numbers in Japan, especially since MHXX is coming to the Switch this year too. It's already established, there's gonna be more marketing, plus holiday? And there's a bundle? Yes.

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Well it's possible but also depends on the stock situation.

If there is a dramatic surge in available Switch devices before the end of the year... maybe, but some how I can't see that happening as things stand.

Yeah, with stock issues still biting more than three months after launch, I think Splatoon 2's impact is going to be dampened somewhat by a lack of available hardware.

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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It's certainly possible. The Switch will have sold around 4.3m WW when ARMS launches barring glaring stock issues (this was calculated with a 150k global baseline and a stock boost for ARMS).
If Nintendo can maintain that it should be around 5m when Splatoon 2 launches. That is a big enough install base for a juggernout franchise to achieve 2m at launch, but I think the deciding factor will be japan (as well as stock).

Seeing how well it's tracking on COMG, and Rakuten it might do 1m or close to that on launch in japan alone. 1m for EU+US+RoW should be achievable for a big game launch.
MK8D did 1.2 WW for launch, with around 300k of that coming from japan. That puts the rest around 900k and this was for a port, not a brand new game like Splatoon 2.

In short 2m launch is feasable. The remaining 2.7m legs within this year is where things get tricky, because they depend so much on Nintendo providing enough supply, especially in japan where the game will probably have it's best legs.

Well, since Nintendo announced 3.6m for Splatoon 2, I guess this prediction will turn out to be true, won't it? It just needs to sell 1.2m this quarter (holidays) to match the first Splatoon.

Just looking at the first pages, it looked like most people doubted it, but the poll says otherwise. Weird. xD

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Congrats Lipe, this was a bold prediction and you are on pace to win it.

A bold prediction that should have little trouble validating itself.

Well done.

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Nicely done. This reminds me of that time when people thought Xenoblade X would outsell the OG Splatoon. The squid just keeps getting bigger and bigger, it seems.

You know it deserves the GOTY.

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