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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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thismeintiel on 25 May 2017

Nah. I'm guessing at best it'll be on par with the 3DS, so 60M-70M. Still damn good numbers. Even if the appeal of the Switch doesn't last for as long as we expect, I still think it's guaranteed to pass 20M.



 

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Azzanation on 25 May 2017

I dont believe the Switch will be on the market long enough to sell 100m



Azuren on 25 May 2017
zorg1000 said:
Azuren said:

Feel free to look it up.

If we were strictly talking about home consoles you may have a point but you said "Nintendo as a whole" so you can't just ignore the side of their business that has made up about 70% of their hardware sales in the last 20 years.

 

NES+G&W-104 million

SNES+GB-113 million

N64+GBC-87 million

GC+GBA-103 million

Wii+DS-255 million

Wii U+3DS-will finish over 85 million

 

I dont see a constant decline, i see relative stability (85-115 million) in 5/6 generations with one that did significantly better.

Oh, my bad, I forgot to include my number was in relation to home consoles, not full generations. Though it's my fault for not being specific. Switch by all means is an anomoly, like the Wii before it. But the Virtual Boy was an anomoly, too. I'm just waiting to see how this pans out before I give any solid predictions.



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fleischr on 25 May 2017

Will families buy multiple systems?
I think yes.
Will this be a handheld that appeals as much to adult gamers as children?
I think yes.
Will the third party relationships thrive and last better than previous Nintendo systems.
I think yes.
Will the system go through a prolonged dead period?
Not for a long time I think.
Does the quality/power of the hardware match the price point?
Yes. In fact better than recent previous Nintendo consoles.

100mil is aggressive, but not unreasonable.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Wright on 25 May 2017

Calm down there, argentinian Kimishima.



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TheWPCTraveler on 25 May 2017
Anfebious said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
I'm going to tag this just to remind myself that I forgot to give you a large repository of jazz arranges of Touhou music.

I do agree with the premise, though I anticipate that if the Switch is too successful, Sony will come out with a counter to it.

Still waiting on that one.

You can bet your ass that Sony will counter the Switch. But it won't come out at least until a couple of years down the road.

The one I was trying to finish downloading was a torrent on nyaa. Unfortunately, I found out two days ago that nyaa is down, forever. There is a replacement, but I'm still checking whether the seeders kept up their work.



 
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TheWPCTraveler on 25 May 2017
HokageTenshi said:
Soundwave said:

Why shouldn't other SKUs be included? Are PS4 Pro and PS4 Slim counted seperate from the original PS4?

then it might be possible because i think it will keep on releasing new SKU every 3 years

You're talking about Nintendo here.

DS:
2004 - DS
2006 - DS Lite
2008 - DSi
2009 - DSi XL

3DS:
2011 - 3DS
2012 - 3DS XL
2013 - 2DS
2014 - new 3DS/new 3DS XL
2017 - new 2DS XL



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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p0isonparadise on 25 May 2017
VGPolyglot said:
p0isonparadise said:
Back in March my prediction was 90-100 million, but in recent weeks I've been feeling pretty ballsy for the Switch.

I believe Switch will sell 125-135 million by the end of 2024.

So, that'd equal around 15.625m to 16.875m per year.


2017: 10 million
2018: 18 million (revision and/or price cut)
2019: 23 million 
2020: 20 million
2021: 19 million 
2022: 15 million 
2023: 12 million 
2024: 8 million 



VGPolyglot on 25 May 2017
p0isonparadise said:
VGPolyglot said:

So, that'd equal around 15.625m to 16.875m per year.


2017: 10 million
2018: 18 million (revision and/or price cut)
2019: 23 million 
2020: 20 million
2021: 19 million 
2022: 15 million 
2023: 12 million 
2024: 8 million 

I don't see it doing that well for that long.



Soundwave on 25 May 2017
TheWPCTraveler said:
HokageTenshi said:

then it might be possible because i think it will keep on releasing new SKU every 3 years

You're talking about Nintendo here.

DS:
2004 - DS
2006 - DS Lite
2008 - DSi
2009 - DSi XL

3DS:
2011 - 3DS
2012 - 3DS XL
2013 - 2DS
2014 - new 3DS/new 3DS XL
2017 - new 2DS XL

Agreed, Switch will probably have even more versions than the 3DS did (6 different models in 6 years), though I think Switch will be unique in that it will also have a large mid-gen revision that increases performance. My guess is a Tegra Xavier chip at 10nm that can run at 400 GFLOP undocked/1.2 TFLOP docked with RAM increased to 8GB and a 1080p screen.  

Older Switch will continue on, but serving the cheaper portion of the market, just as 3DS does right now. Nintendo will keep that higher cost/lower cost dynamic, it's effectively a good way to "cheat" and have two hardware pillars out of one ecosystem and still keep software development relatively streamlined.