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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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VGPolyglot said:

I don't see it doing that well for that long.

Well, it's a prediction for 125m units.

Still, why wouldn't Switch be around for a long time? Are you falling into the same trap as many others and believe that processing power is a cause for concern?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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the_dengle said:
p0isonparadise said:

2017: 10 million

That's pretty conservative.

I don't think they will need a price cut or major remodel next year.

They'll have both anyway. 

Model revisions are simply good for business. No two ways around it. 

Next fiscal year they need to move 14-15 million Switch systems no questions asked at least if its going to have any shot at 100 mill within a reasonable time frame. 

There will be a new Switch model next year, maybe even two (ala New 3DS XL and New 3DS regular). 



RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:

I don't see it doing that well for that long.

Well, it's a prediction for 125m units.

Still, why wouldn't Switch be around for a long time? Are you falling into the same trap as many others and believe that processing power is a cause for concern?

No, I'm just taking a stab in the dark and thinking that 2024 seems too far into the future.



Switch is a very different product than even the Wii or DS ... it is not being driven by casual evergreen type fads, it will have a very different lifecycle IMO, it will be quite interesting.

It's the first Nintendo system to sell this well out of the gate mainly off well just regular software in a long, long time. 



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RAE_SHMURDA said:

Definitely overestimating it. The console will likely do horrible in foreign markets like the Wii U did, and will do alright in the U.S. I'm looking more at 60-75m lifetime

It will dominate Japan, spanking the PS4 around like a red headed step child, and do far better than the Wii U could ever dream of doing in Europe. 



the_dengle said:
p0isonparadise said:

2017: 10 million

That's pretty conservative.

Possibly, I just think Switch will have a more difficult time in Europe/Australia due to it's price.



p0isonparadise said:
VGPolyglot said:

So, that'd equal around 15.625m to 16.875m per year.

2017: 10 million
2018: 18 million (revision and/or price cut)
2019: 23 million *(23m in 1year? would that be a record? Seems high)
2020: 20 million *(Switch 2 releases)
2021: 19 million *(probably lower)
2022: 15 million *(probably lower)
2023: 12 million *(probably lower)
2024: 8 million *(probably lower)

in bold.



JRPGfan said:
p0isonparadise said:

2017: 10 million
2018: 18 million (revision and/or price cut)
2019: 23 million *(23m in 1year? would that be a record? Seems high)
2020: 20 million *(Switch 2 releases)
2021: 19 million *(probably lower)
2022: 15 million *(probably lower)
2023: 12 million *(probably lower)
2024: 8 million *(probably lower)

in bold.

No, 23m is not a record. Both the Wii and DS peaked higher.

Switch 2 launch in 2020?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
JRPGfan said:

in bold.

No, 23m is not a record. Both the Wii and DS peaked higher.

Switch 2 launch in 2020?

Yep, I think when Playstation 5 & Xbox Two launch, Nintendo does a Switch 2.

The technology will have advanced enough to warrent it by then, and they ll want to try and keep atleast somewhat up with the other 2.

So they can still get some 3rd party support.

 

2020 or 2021.