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Forums - Nintendo - 80+ Million Switches Need to be Sold in 5 Years or it's a Failure

Pyro as Bill said:
potato_hamster said:

Well no. See you're looking at it from your perspective, not Nintendo's. See, the Switch in this case would not be a portable console, and the new handheld would replace the 3DS. So it would be one home console, and one portable console, both playing different games/cartridges - like how the Gameboy and Super Nintendo took different games/cartridges. This is not a hard concept.

Here you are thinking that Nintendo makes business decisions for reasons that make sense. If you're so confident that they do, please go ahead and direct me to the nearest big box store that has a entire display of NES Classics, complete with stacks of additional controllers for people to buy. I know people that refuse to buy a Switch because of how horribly Nintendo dropped the ball on the NES Classic.

There's underestimating the popularity of a stocking filler and then there's shooting yourself in the face. Not to say Nintendo aren't capable of shooting themselves.

Nintendo's won the portable console wars why would they release another system requiring it's own software to compete with 3ds and Switch?

Why is Nintendo no longer selling Gameboys? Your question is completely nonsensical.



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I remember posting on forums during the GCN -> Wii days, and it's the same thing. Nintendo was in it's most successful position ever, with both it's handheld and it's home console selling like absolute mad, in a market that wasn't in a sharp decline as it is today, and people will still come up with ways to try and make them appear like they are doomed.

In the Wii days, it was poor attach rate, now it's using the fact that it's a home console/handheld hybrid so it must sell double. This doesn't shine an attractive light on the OP.

Sorry.



RolStoppable said:
zippy said:
Eagerly awaiting Rols response.

This is already the second such thread in the last couple of days. Since Switch is on track to do much better than the VGC consensus expected (30-35m lifetime), some people start to be inclined to move the goalposts in order to paint a negative picture for Switch. This 80m hurdle is amusing, but given how good Switch is, there's no reason to worry that Switch won't clear this new bar for success.

Beyond that, raw unit sales of console hardware as measurement for success can be misleading. For example, a GameCube (21m) is preferable to a PS3 (85m+) from a financial perspective. Some people say that unit sales are important to judge the strength of a brand and its future fortunes, but when both the GC and PS3 were followed up by consoles that sold/will sell more than 100m units, then it needs to be asked how much that really matters. The Wii U's pathetic 13.5m aren't stopping Switch either and Switch is clearly perceived as a home gaming system that can be taken on the go; otherwise the prices for software would have led to an outrage, because from a pure handheld perspective there was a jump from $40 to $60.

Lastly, we can look at Nintendo's stock price to get an idea where Nintendo is going. The link should take you to a graph that spans the timeframe of one year. The June 2016 level represents the value of the Wii U and 3DS. July sees the Pokémon Go spike in combination with the realisation that Nintendo won't get the full amount of the profits. September shows the response to the announcement of Super Mario Run, then the stock dips and hits a valley after the Switch teaser (mid-November) before recovering a bit for the launch of Super Mario Run. The launch of Super Mario Run sees many investors selling their shares because they can't see it getting any better than that level. The latter half of December through February represents the confidence in Switch; there's no enthusiasm, only a wait and see stance.

The period from Switch launch until today represents what Switch truly means for Nintendo: The smartphone business isn't anywhere near as profitable as assumed by investors and analysts, but Nintendo's core business is getting in good shape again. Unlike Pokémon Go and Super Mario Run, there's no sudden spike here, but rather a steady increase over time. This is a clear thumbs up from investors and they are right. Switch's trajectory will be one of beating forecasts, not missing them like the 3DS and Wii U did all too often.

In summary, the people who believe that Switch could be less successful than 3DS and Wii U combined can be brushed off as clueless.

 

Absolutely spot on. Mostly what I wanted to say, but you word it so much better than myself.

potato_hamster said:
Pyro as Bill said:

There's underestimating the popularity of a stocking filler and then there's shooting yourself in the face. Not to say Nintendo aren't capable of shooting themselves.

Nintendo's won the portable console wars why would they release another system requiring it's own software to compete with 3ds and Switch?

Why is Nintendo no longer selling Gameboys? Your question is completely nonsensical.

They are, the latest model is called a Switch. The last one was called 3DS. Obviously they've been UPGRADED once or twice since the original.

So this new 3DS upgrade that's a downgrade from Switch, it'll get it's own Mario Kart and Pokemon? Do you think it'll be able to connect to the TV?



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Stage 3: Bargaining



potato_hamster said:
For your statement to have any merit, you need to prove the assumption that the Nintendo Switch is Nintendo's flagship handheld going forward. Because so far, Nintendo has directly contradicted that assumption every chance they have gotten.

So far, all we know is that the Switch has replaced the Wii U. They're still selling/making new 3DS/2DS models. It's entirely plausible that Nintendo will release another handheld system in the next year or so that does not play Switch cartridges, and that should surprise no one if they do.

What would such a system even be?

3DS = roughly a portable PS2/GameCube

Switch (undocked) = a portable PS3/Wii U

Something in between the two would be pointless and simply keep Nintendo's top games (ie: Splatoon, BoTW, Mario Odyessy) away from a big chunk of their audience. 

You might as well just take the Tegra X1, die shrink it to 16nm or 10nm and make a smaller 3DS XL size model if that's what you're dying to have. You'd actually have to pay more money to develop a new chip that's inferior for no reason. 



To the OP, no system that sells over 50 million in 5 years is a "failure" IMO.

Dreamcast, GameCube, Turbo Grafx 16, Saturn, 3DO, Neo Geo, Sega Nomad, 32X, Sega CD, Wii U ... those are failures.

If Switch "only" sells 65 million in 5 years, that's not a "failure". Mind you I think it's possible to hit 80 mill or more in that time span, though it will require good execution.



potato_hamster said:
For your statement to have any merit, you need to prove the assumption that the Nintendo Switch is Nintendo's flagship handheld going forward. Because so far, Nintendo has directly contradicted that assumption every chance they have gotten.

So far, all we know is that the Switch has replaced the Wii U. They're still selling/making new 3DS/2DS models. It's entirely plausible that Nintendo will release another handheld system in the next year or so that does not play Switch cartridges, and that should surprise no one if they do.

Well, let's go with that. The Switch will be a success, if it beats the sales of it's predecessor the WiiU. I hope Nintendo can pull that. We will see in five years.



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ArchangelMadzz said:
Mnementh said:

The missing dock will not bring down the price much. Attaching the controllers permanently to the console might be a cheaper mobile only option. We'll see.

It's not really about downing the price lots to compare it to handheld sales.

It's literally selling a unit as a handheld (without the dock) that's how you compare it to handheld sales. 

Yeah, well, Nintendo might see a market for that. We'll see.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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