I think Switch has appeal to that audience though. Every person over 30 I've shown the system really likes it, even people who aren't neccessarily died in the wool Nintendo fanatics. 

The functionality of the device and ability to play relatively modern games anywhere in such a nice form factor, but still with a pretty nice display and full traditional button layout is appealling to a lot of people. IMO, games like Skyrim and NBA2K, things that normally wouldn't do well on a Nintendo console, can find an audience on Switch. 

Nintendo doesn't need to get all PS4/XB1 owners, even just a small percentage would give them an added audience that pushes them close to the goals of the userbase they want. 

Lets assume they hold most of the 3DS base ... so about 70 million there. With the Wii U there was probably in the range of 5 million out of 14 million that were unique users (no 3DS), so lets say that base also joins in, small as it is. So you're up to 75 million now.

If Nintendo can get even 15-20 million PS4/XB1/PC owners to buy a Switch, that pushes them up to 90-95 million. Isn't that something? That can be the added audience they need.

If you really think about it too, the 19 year old kid who bought a PS2 in 2000 at launch is today 36-37 years old. We're looking at an audience that's getting older, and IMO Switch can appeal to a lot of that crowd. That crowd can still play video games, they don't need some simplified controller or gimmick to get them to play, what they need is a system that fits into the time demands of their life, I think Switch has appeal there. 

There is IMO a market of people who grew up with the NES/SNES/Playstation/PS2/360/etc. who can play virtually any type of game from years of experience of playing. But we are getting further and further away from the 90s/early 2000s every generation now. We're talking about the Playstation generation now heading into their 40s. 

For a lot of people in this age range, really smartphone games for convienance sake are basically what they mostly end up playing or they end up just retiring from gaming altogether. I know many people like this. Switch can give them the option of a real game console that can scratch the itch for a real game of FIFA or Skyrim or Zelda or Mario Kart with nearly the same convienace of a smartphone/tablet and super easy TV capability too.

all they need to do is keep repeating the following phrase - "Now you can play (insert game here) anywhere."

Now you can play Skyrim anywhere.

Now you can play Minecraft anywhere.

Now you can play Breath of the Wild anywhere.

You don't have to play any game on disc (or cartridge) today though if you don't want to. 

I don't really think that's the appeal. I went over to my buddy's house, he's 38, and this dude used to be a freaking hardcore of the hardcore gamers, played Unreal Tournament all night, multi-monitor PC setup, ripped through Gran Turismo, poured hours into GoldenEye on the N64 on a 12-inch black and white TV, spent every lunch hour eating for 5 minutes then the rest of the time would be taking on all challengers at the Street Fighter II and Mortal Kombat machines on the corner store. 

He has an XBox One, but doesn't use it for anything other than Netflix anymore. Doesn't have anything against the XBox (he bought it after all), it's not anything "wrong" Microsoft did, life is just a bitch and it changes a lot when you have real responsibilities. He just had his first child. I brought the Switch over and he was able to play on the TV, and then move into the baby's room to check on his kid while still playing. He was impressed with the system. 

I see this all the time. I see a lot of my friends too from college who were hardcore PS2 gamers who basically don't play at all anymore or play the odd war straategy game on their Android phone to work but that's it. When I was in Japan a year ago I met up with my friend and we went shopping for retro video games, and it was just .... sad, lol. He doesn't play any games anymore, he basically quit after he got married and had his first child, I remember in college he played Final Fantasy X one night literally 12 hours straight. 

It doesn't matter if switch as hardware is well-liked by older gamers because it's games are the most important factor in a gamer's decision. They don't give a rat's ass about gimmicks. They're less likely to buy anything that's expensive on impulse. It has to be pitched to older gamers by having having the same new 3rd party games as the other two, a few new 3rd exclusives and alot more 1st party games that are mature themed (not blood, gore and nudity) like the witcher 3 or dragon age story wise. Skyrim is really old. It's not worth bringing it up like it really adds anything of value for those older gamers to buy a switch.

Switch isn't really a gimmick though. It's a fundamental functional change in how video games can be enjoyed. 

When you get a little bit older into your late 30s, you give less of a fuck about graphics and all that too. It's not always about having the latest/greatest, it's about being able to enjoy the style of games you love within the schedule of your life. 

Don't get me wrong, that doesn't mean that like 3DS graphics are ok, you still want something relatively modern (shaders, AI, physics, poly models, etc.), but it doesn't have to be an exact thing. 

This is going to be a big audience too -- 100 million people bought a PSOne, 150 million a PS2 .... these people who were 16-20 years old then are today 35/36/37/38. Life changes big time. 

Well aside from the general statistic, if a PS2 owner was 19 (Sony's own self proclaimed target age) in 2000, they would be 37/38 today. I'm willing to bet life changes a fuck-ton from 19 to 37 for most people. It's very hard to play games the same way the older you get and the more responsibilities you have in life, I don't think that's something ancedontally unique to me. 

For people who don't understand this, you will understand it when you have a commited relationship, full-time job, etc. Forget just gaming, clubbing, partying, going out just to dick around at Denny's until 3 in the morning ... all that stuff sadly becomes more and more rare the older you get. 

But it's not like your skills, or ability as a gamer really go away. You do anything from age 5/6/7 for 20-30 years straight and have hundreds/thousands of hours of practice at it, odds are that ability to play never goes away and you are always going to be pretty good. 

I'd be willing to bet for at least a decent chunk (doesn't have to be a majority or even close, just a chunk) of these people who gamed in the 90s/early 2000s, a Switch or next revision Switch could be more attractive than a Playstation 5. Not because Sony has done anything wrong, just because their life style is so radically different in their 40s than than it was in their early 20s and Switch simply fits their gaming needs better.  

We're headed into an era in the 2020s where you're going to have a bunch of 40 year olds who can still play virtually any type of game, the question is more whether or not gaming fits into their lifestyle. 

It's just a prediction (which is pretty much all this board is anyway). If I was doing full featured market analysis, someone damn well better be paying for that. 

I don't think the Switch is going to find an audience with that Just Dance/1,2 Switch crowd that Nintendo thinks, it's not another Wii, but they will find an added audience from older enthusiast gamers who like that the device fits their life style better than other consoles do. 

It also explains why something like Bomberman ... a property someone likely over the age of 30 would only really recoginize, and a game that has virtually zero marketing, is doing well on Switch, whereas Just Dance doesn't appear to be. 

If they can get an extra 15-20 million from that older crowd that did not purchase a Wii U and add that to their 3DS base, well there's your 100 million right there. That's a small fraction of the general market too, it's not some lofty goal IMO. 

So what you wanted to talk about from what I said is "switch isn't really a gimmick" and "graphics"? Ugh. Nostalgia is not gonna bring them back to nintendo or it would of happened every gen already. The reason why the 30+ year olds aren't really into nintendo's games is because they changed from when they played it when they were teenagers or younger. They grew up and their tastes evolved. You really can't expect 30 somethings to buy an expensive console and games for nostalgia's sake when they can just open up a box and blow the dust off a old console. 

Think about it. What kind of shows and movies do you think 30 year olds watch?

I've never believed these are "seperate crowds" to begin with. I know many, many people who had an NES to begin with and like Mario, but just have a Playstation now. They're not willing to give up every publisher on the planet just to play the 10 reeeally good games Nintendo would bring out over the course of 5 years or so. I don't fault people for that, I can understand their reasoning. 

Money is tight, realistically a lot of people only want/need 1 console, Sony or MS offered the widest variety of games, it was never anything personal against Nintendo. For their 20s/early 30s sure I can understand why a person, even a person who likes Mario/Zelda would abandon Nintendo consoles.

Zelda as a the killer app for Switch illustrates what the Switch can do for that older audience though, anyone who plays modern games can look at Zelda and see what it is (a giant open world RPG/adventure type game). You don't neccessarily need a FPS or a GTA game for them to look at the device and see the value in it.