Turkish said:
Soundwave said:
This just my feeling now having had the system since launch, and showing it to friends and seeing how they react to it. I think Switch can bring in a "new audience" (for Nintendo), but it's not going to be the typical audience we think of when talking about Nintendo this way, in fact I think it might even surprise Nintendo (just as the PS4's success has surprised Sony in many ways).
I think the "additive" new audience the Switch is actually going to tap into are older 28-40+ year old gamers people who typically would buy a Playstation or XBox. I'm not talking "lapsed gamers" either, I'm talking about people who can game just fine and have all their lives, they're just older now. The person who bought a Playstation at age 16 in 1996 would today be 36/37, life changes a lot in those 20 years.
So why Switch? Because the Switch I'm finding the real draw of its design is that it works well for people who love games but don't have the fucking time to game anymore. When you are past 26/27/28, you have a full time job now, are married usually or in a commited relationship that takes up time, you have kids or kids are coming, etc. etc. etc. You have 1000 things sitting on your PVR that you promised you would watch but haven't gotten around to and another 1000 things on Netflix you've been meaning to get around to.
You love games, but the fact is they are a time consuming and demanding hobby. Enter Switch. No it doesn't have the graphics of a PS4, buuuuut PS3/360 graphics still look decent and can still give you a decent enough game of Skyrim or Zelda or NBA2K or GTAV or MGS. It's such a flexible device that you can get in quick gaming sessions without having to revert back to the 3DS, which lets be honest feels like a toy in comparison to the Switch and doesn't allow for TV gaming (not that you'd want to anyway with that chipset).
I can actually see Nintendo getting 15-20+ million extra gamers from this category ... what typically would be Playstation or XBox territory, but as you get older, real life sets in and you just don't have the time. This audience has a large amount of disposal income and they do love games so there's no hoops Nintendo needs to jump through, what this audience doesn't have is time. They don' have the time to play games like they did when they were 19 years old. I have a PS4 and XB1 but I just don't have time to play them. It just feels like a chore to go down to the game room, start the system up (which usually entails a firmware update of several minutes) and then settle in, and by that time my fiance is usually yelling at me to check on something. Switch on the other hand, I find little pockets of 15-20 minutes where I can play, no problem (yes even on the toilet, I'm not ashamed to say).
You add that extra userbase to what the 3DS + Wii U sold (subtracting 9 million or so for people who bought both) and you are getting pretty close to that magic 100 million number a lot of people here are obsessed with, also consider every new gen brings in a new generation of kids.
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Nah, people come home after an exhausting day at work, they sit/lie on their sofa in front of their big tv either watching shows or playing games. They might as well get the PS4 which does both netflix and games in the highest definition possible. For games on the go their smart devices will do.
Playstation appeals to every age group. The 90s kids/teens who grew up with it are still with the brand. Mega hits from 1st and 3rd parties that appeal to kids ensure young blood continues flowing in to the ecosystem. The way we grew up with MGS, Tomb Raider and FF7, today's kids grow up with Uncharted, GTA V and CoD.
Nintendo otoh, seems to be stuck with an aging and shrinking demographic of hardcore fans who grew up in the 80s and 90s. Nintendo was unable to bind the huge pool of non-gamers and casuals they got with Wii/DS to their brand. From combined 250 million sold units to barely 80 million.
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Playstation has appeal to every group sure.
That doesn't mean there isn't a window there for Nintendo. Sure Sony will have 30-40 year olds too, but there also are more than than a few that I think are going to pass on a PS5.
When you get into your 30s-40s the amount of time, you don't have for a lot of people nearly as much time to game. Switch is something where you can scratch your gaming itch on the 20-25 minutes you have on your subway commute to work or that flight you have on a work conference, and still play a little on the TV when you're at home ... rather than the alternative which is basically quit gaming or just game on smart devices.
A dedicated home console like a PS5 is only really worth it if you play a lot. I'm seeing this already with a lot of my friends in this age range, they basically just bought a PS4 or XB1 out of habit (because they had the previous ones), but those systems get little use now that they're older and don't have the daily schedule they had at age 25. Honestly I think several of them will just pass on a PS5/XB2, not because Sony/MS are doing anything wrong, it's just not worth it anymore. All they want to do is play a little FIFA or NHL and a couple of other titles these days.
Most people don't even have time as they get older to watch their Netflix back catalog, let alone spend 60 hours+ on a single video game. That works when you are in your 20s, in your 30s that can get very complicated. Of course some do it, but just as many don't.
I'm not saying Nintendo needs to get everyone here, but say 15-20 million, that would be less than 10% of the combined XB + PS audience, that I think is doable. That's not an outrageous number. If the sales proposition a few years down the line is a Switch that's about on par with a PS4 (Tegra X3 chip) versus a PS5 with betterer 8k graphics or something, I think Nintendo has a decent shot to actually win a chunk of those gamers. Convienance is going to trump just shinier graphics at some point.