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Soundwave on 13 May 2017
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RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

It's just a prediction (which is pretty much all this board is anyway). If I was doing full featured market analysis, someone damn well better be paying for that. 

I don't think the Switch is going to find an audience with that Just Dance/1,2 Switch crowd that Nintendo thinks, it's not another Wii, but they will find an added audience from older enthusiast gamers who like that the device fits their life style better than other consoles do. 

It also explains why something like Bomberman ... a property someone likely over the age of 30 would only really recoginize is doing well on Switch, whereas Just Dance doesn't appear to be. 

If they can get an extra 15-20 million from that older crowd that did not purchase a Wii U and add that to their 3DS base, well there's your 100 million right there. That's a small fraction of the general market too, it's not some lofty goal IMO. 

Are you willing to accept that the older crowd that is driving the current Switch sales doesn't typically buy Xbox or PlayStation? As of now, there's simply not enough overlap in the game library to justify such an explanation, because there are virtually no major Xbox/PS IPs on Switch. And it's also not like it's only a matter of time until those IPs arrive on Switch, because up till now there's almost nothing announced.

I've never believed these are "seperate crowds" to begin with. I know many, many people who had an NES to begin with and like Mario, but just have a Playstation now. They're not willing to give up every publisher on the planet just to play the 10 reeeally good games Nintendo would bring out over the course of 5 years or so. I don't fault people for that, I can understand their reasoning. 

Money is tight, realistically a lot of people only want/need 1 console, Sony or MS offered the widest variety of games, it was never anything personal against Nintendo. For their 20s/early 30s sure I can understand why a person, even a person who likes Mario/Zelda would abandon Nintendo consoles.

Zelda as a the killer app for Switch illustrates what the Switch can do for that older audience though, anyone who plays modern games can look at Zelda and see what it is (a giant open world RPG/adventure type game). You don't neccessarily need a FPS or a GTA game for them to look at the device and see the value in it.