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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Macquarie ups its Switch sales views from 11M to 14.5M in FY3/18 !

Slownenberg said:
3DS did it because of a HUGE price cut. And I very much doubt Pokemon is coming in the next year. If pokemon does come then 14 million is easy. But I'd expect Pokemon for holiday 2018.

Now granted I think the Switch will sell at least 12 million by 3/18, but I'm assuming that number is based on them getting decent third party support by this fall. To do nearly 15 million is gonna take a couple more huge first party titles this year or some real good third party support to convince people that this Nintendo console will actually have more than just remakes, ports, and first party games.

    PS4 did the same, it was costing 300usd, the only thing it had was ps3 ports, knack,killzone(both mediocre games) and a ps3 remaster for over 6 months and still managed to sell purely on hype for months before actual ps4 games were released,ps4, the switch lineup the way it is right now is way superior to what ps4 had, i bought my ps4 on hype and i literally left it in the dust for almost a year after finishing the last of us and infamous.

    Switch will sell just fine with the current stream of games, it will prob reach 10m before december 31th, what they need to guarantee during E3 is that 2018 will be a healthy year to whoever is buying right now.



“On my business card, I am a corporate president. In my mind, I am a game developer. But in my heart, I am a gamer.” - Satoru Iwata

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If a new proper MH with updated graphics comes to the Switch, oh man, that's fucking day 1.



JRPGfan said:

Switch is still 50$ more expensive than PS4 & XB1.
I dont see it.... but maybe Im underestimateing the casuals & handheld users out there.

The point is that this is the Vita dream coming true, you are not looking at the same angle is all.



Slownenberg said:
They need some big third party games to come this year if they're gonna hit that number. Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Mario alone ain't gonna get to 14 million in one year.

3DS and Wii didn't had big third party games in its 1st years and they achieved that, Switch could do same.



That fits right into my own estimates...so obviously it's wrong :)



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JRPGfan said:

Switch is still 50$ more expensive than PS4 & XB1.
I dont see it.... but maybe Im underestimateing the casuals & handheld users out there.

And Nintendo fans probably, or family gamers, or you know any person that is interested in the Switch concept/games and already own a PC/PS4/X1 or don't give a crap for what is available in other systems



 

 

We reap what we sow

I don't really know or understand the Japanese and US markets but can see that the Switch should do well in Japan with such titles especially as they get a better Switch hardware prices I believe and portable systems are far more popular. I think the Vita was a poor seller in the US and that again was a powerful system with a ok but not stellar range of software. It also had a big pricing issue due to using proprietary memory cards. Switch seems similar, high pricing including online, weak range of fairly minor software and a high console price. It seems a similar situation except Switch has a single amazing software title and the home console functionality is much better the rubbish 2 system approach of Sony with Vita and Playstation tv. I think sales in Europe will drop off fairly soon but it looks like US sales will be more robust.

Many of these commercial predictions are based on the high launch numbers but I would of thought they need to see sales for 2-3 months before they can really have a chance of predicting what is going to happen.




Switch >>>>> Pizzas



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Hmm... I still just don't see Switch being that much of a success. It's lack of third party games just screams Wii U all over again. I'm sure it'll be more of a success, but i don't think it will hit Wii numbers like many are expecting. I'm predicting 55 - 60 million units, lifetime.



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

dahuman said:
JRPGfan said:

Switch is still 50$ more expensive than PS4 & XB1.
I dont see it.... but maybe Im underestimateing the casuals & handheld users out there.

The point is that this is the Vita dream coming true, you are not looking at the same angle is all.

 The Vita dream was console quality on a handheld device, which it arguable achieved. Problem there was (and this is the same problem the Switch is looking to have in the long term) is developer support. It's nice to believe Nintendo's franchises alone can sell hardware, but the reality is without games like Destiny 2, Overwatch, Battlefront, Battlefield, Red Dead 2, GTA, CoD and so on, the system won't sell very well. 



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon