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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch's First Year Sales

15 million. The system keeps exceeding my expectations. So I don't want that to keep happening.



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The price is the biggest threat I see to the Switch's sales this year (pretty much everything else, IMO, has been on-point and executed well). Unless, Nintendo does a price drop (at least $50 but more ideally $70-$100; or perhaps both with the $250 coming bundled with something) I, personally, have a difficult time seeing it be competitive against XOne S and PS4 Slim come this Holiday season.

Until we get a more clear post-launch baseline, I am going to be super-conservative and say 5.5 million. I am pretty sure I will revise this later (hopefully significantly upwards), but I do not feel like launch data is the best source to make bold predictions, so I am going to play it safe for now.



10-12m is my guess for the first 12 months.



nemo37 said:
The price is the biggest threat I see to the Switch's sales this year (pretty much everything else, IMO, has been on-point and executed well). Unless, Nintendo does a price drop (at least $50 but more ideally $70-$100; or perhaps both with the $250 coming bundled with something) I, personally, have a difficult time seeing it be competitive against XOne S and PS4 Slim come this Holiday season.

Until we get a more clear post-launch baseline, I am going to be super-conservative and say 5.5 million. I am pretty sure I will revise this later (hopefully significantly upwards), but I do not feel like launch data is the best source to make bold predictions, so I am going to play it safe for now.

There is no any need for price cut in 1st year, Switch is very intresting and apeling console, it has huge system seller game like launch title and few other very strong titles like MK8D, Splatoon2 and Mario Odyssey in its 1st 9 monts, has great brending and marketing. Switch has own value like hybrid system compared to PS4/XB1 and has huge system seller games. I dont see any price cut this year, but I can see some bundle with MK8D for instance for same current price of $299 for holiday season.

Yes, that's super-supervative prediction, Switch will achive those numbers just from launch month and holiday season.

 

 

SpokenTruth said:
It is possible that it might sell Wii U lifetime total in just the first year.

Though I'll say a more conservative 11 million is likely.

Tottaly agree.



8.3 million.



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Between 10 and 17 million.

But it depends on how much Nintendo can produce.. and what games that will come later this year..

A pokemon game would do wonders.. but I think the big hit could be a game/app that uses the HD rumble perfect.. some all will try and talk about.

But this tread makes more sense after E3



If the can resolve supply issues and pokemon does not release 11 million, otherwise more or less. Depending on which of these are true.



nemo37 said:
The price is the biggest threat I see to the Switch's sales this year (pretty much everything else, IMO, has been on-point and executed well). Unless, Nintendo does a price drop (at least $50 but more ideally $70-$100; or perhaps both with the $250 coming bundled with something) I, personally, have a difficult time seeing it be competitive against XOne S and PS4 Slim come this Holiday season.

Until we get a more clear post-launch baseline, I am going to be super-conservative and say 5.5 million. I am pretty sure I will revise this later (hopefully significantly upwards), but I do not feel like launch data is the best source to make bold predictions, so I am going to play it safe for now.

5.5 million? it told 2-2.5m in the first month and is only going to sell another 3-3.5m in the following 11 months?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I was gonna say 6 mil, but perhaps that's way too low. 10 mil feels more between safe and optimistic? E3 could change the outcome of these numbers.



 

              

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Approximately 11,111,111 copies.