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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will Sony ever surpass Nintendo's total hardware shipment?

Barkley on 19 April 2017
RolStoppable said:

And yes, Switch is going to sell more than 100m units.

I'm going to hold onto this until you are proven wrong. Or if the unthinkable happens I will brush it under the carpet and pretend it never happened, then find another prediction that I hope ends in embarrassment.

Though you're not as bold as Spemanig was - " Seeing the entire Switch platform do around 200m WW over the next 10 years wouldn't surprise me at all. Doing less than 150m would."

But that was pre spec-leak and January Event so can't be too harsh on him.



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outlawauron on 19 April 2017
RolStoppable said:
outlawauron said:

But 30m would be more than doubling Wii U. Reading that thread, I don't see how you would use it as a "told you so".

Using it's two month performance to declare 100m is certainly something. Not out of the question, but I don't think it's close to a certainity at all.

30m isn't much better than doubling Wii U sales (~27.5m). That's what I said and you know it's true.

I am not using Switch's current performance to declare 100m. I did not need sales for that, I knew it ahead of launch. I made a big response thread to the low predictions. That thread is going to come back and will tie everything together with an update. I listed common fallacies that were made when conceiving predictions. One of them was that Switch has a weak launch lineup; that fallacy will already be roasted and burned with the first update to my thread. People are going to claim in hindsight that everything was so obvious in regards to Switch, but I will document how bad people missed the mark.

I misunderstood you. I took it to mean that 30m is worse than doubling Wii U sales. 

Well, I'll look forward to your argument. Keeping up hype and momentum isn't always easy.



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Areym on 19 April 2017

Not anytime soon, specially if the Switch continues to sell on par with the PS4 with the 3DS still chugging along.



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StarOcean on 19 April 2017
SpokenTruth said:
StarOcean said:

Never claimed it'd be fast XD Also this is just going by Nintendo's strategy from 2011 forward. If Nintendo changes themselves (ei stop the fake shortages, youre doing this on purpose, Nintendo, and if not whoever is in charge of production is stupid). If they can fix themselves then I can see them coming back

Even if Nintendo stopped producing devices today and say Sony began selling 20 million per year (they currently are not), that would still take 10 years.

Consoles as we know them likely won't even exist by the time Sony starts to get near the crossover point.

...okay? I didn't disagree...



Robert_Downey_Jr. on 19 April 2017

The only reason they haven't already is because Nintendo had handhelds and consoles selling from 94-05 before Sony got into that market. With them both selling one now I could see Sony making up 50m+ per gen if not more.



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Soundwave on 19 April 2017

I think there's maybe only 3 hardware generations left past this one. Maybe even only 2.

Depends on how fast fiber optic and other extremely fast internet spreads and how fast mobile chips improve.

So it would be hard for Sony to make up if Nintendo can hold them at bay with their own sales. But I guess in the end neither company really cares about this stuff much.



Azuren on 19 April 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Azuren said:
Will Sony continue outselling Nintendo as a whole? Most likely.

Will they surpass Nintendo in 3 years? No.

5 years? No.

10 years? Possibly, but only if this downward trend for Nintendo and upward trend for Sony continues.

With a 200 million gap, 10 years would require a yearly lead of 20 million by Sony.  That's incredibly unlikely.  Last year was one of Nintendo's worst ever and one of PS4's best and that still didn't have a 20 million differential.

 

I don't think this is going to happen.  By the time Sony gets near, consoles probably won't even exist in the manner we have had them for the past 3 decades.

Like I said, it'll only happen if the downward and upward trends continue, implying the yearly gap between Sony and Nintendo gets bigger and bigger every year.



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fleischr on 19 April 2017

Watch as the moment they tie - they unite into one glorious gaming company :P



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

KLAMarine on 19 April 2017

I doubt it. Based on the math I'm seeing in this thread, I doubt it.



Robert_Downey_Jr. on 29 April 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
The only reason they haven't already is because Nintendo had handhelds and consoles selling from 94-05 before Sony got into that market. With them both selling one now I could see Sony making up 50m+ per gen if not more.

So that would take about 4 more generations (200 million gap at 50 million per generation).   Given a generation now lasts 6-7 years, you are looking at 24-28 years.  Do you really think we'll even have consoles as we know them at that point?

things move a lot slower than we think and the edges erode faster so Nintendo will disappear from consoles before Sony.



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