Hi everyone, i'm sure many people on VGChartz remember me. Some months ago i dropped this site, and in general many others internet site because i've got some things to do (real life things), and i still have something to do, so i'll still left this site, but i think in some months i can back withouth problem permanently.
That being said, i wanted to back even only for today for do something i really love to do: talk about my predictions. I'm a bit rusty, but modestly i stiill think i'm one of the best to do this, so here we go.
After bought a Switch and enjoyed it with Breath of the Wild, i'll write here my predictions for the platform.
01. Hardware sales:
The Nintendo Switch will ships over 16.5 million units in 2017 (sales something in the 15 million range), and will have a better first year than the 3DS. For the quarters shipments, i expect something like:
Q1 2017 - 2.7 million / NEW
Q2 2017 - 2.8 million / 5.5 million
Q3 2017 - 3.0 million / 8.5 million
Q4 2017 - 8.0 million / 16.5 million
Talking about sold through, i think we'll see something like 4.5 million in Japan and 5 million in USA, the rest will be sold in the rest of world.
Switch won't have a pricedrop before 2018, outside maybe an official 30€ pricedrop in some Europe countries, and will do similar performance to Wii worldwide. I was expect something like 80 million in January, now i would not be surprised if it sells like/more than Wii in the end, but for now i wanna be conservate and i just rise my prediction to 90 million.
02. Software sales:
Zelda: Breath of the wild will ship 4 million in the first quarter, 7 million in 2017, and 11 million lifetime. Expect something like 2 million on Wii U, 9 million on Switch.
Mario Odyssey will become the best selling Mario 3D game ever, outselling Super Mario Galaxy which has sold over 12.7 million units. I expect 15 million lifetime for Mario Odyssey, 5 million only in 2017. (ship+digital)
Splatoon 2 will sell similar to Mario Odyssey, about 15 million lifetime, but more sales in 2017 because of the release date (July VS holidays), and i expect almost 6 million in 2017.
Japan i think we'll see something like 2 million only in 2017, and at least 4 million lifetime (i would say 4.5-5 million).
Arms is the most hard to predict. I think it won't be that game that will sell the console, but the opposite, the game will sell because the success of the console. So far i expect something like 1.5 million in 2017 and 3 million lifetime, but well, this really depend on what Nintendo do with this IP.
Talking about others games will release after 2018:
Fire Emblem will continue to increase, mostly because the general series grown, the success of the Switch, and Fire Emblem Heroes, i think Fire Emblem Switch 2018 is gonna do 4+ million lifetime.
Smash Bros Switch, after the amazing perfromance of Smash 4 (slower start than Brawl, but then way better legs thanks a good world of mouth), will do amazing too, i think we'll see a similar launch to Brawl, with the difference it won't have bad legs, so overall, better lifetime sales, even in this case, best selling Smash Bros ever (+15 million)
Pokémon will continue to be Pokémon. I think the Pokémons on Switch should have similar performance to Sun/Moon, maybe slower launch but better legs (~20 million lifetime)
That's all. I'm basically back just for tell you what i think anyway, cause who rememb me know i like do those kind of predictions.
Bye guys, had good days.
