Yes, they (kinda) did. Two Metroid games sold over 2m and eight over 1m. Pikmin is a different case tho, all 3 main games sold between 1.2~1.6m. But I see your point, I believe Arms will be bigger than both as well.

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OT: 1m is basically guaranteed if you ask me. 2m is very likely and 3m+ is definitely possible. The only thing against Arms is the genre (fighting). But at the same time it's a strong point as well because there are not many fighting games releasing right now, let alone creative ones. And that's another good thing going for it: it's different, and easy to understand at the same time... kinda like Splatoon, which turned out to be a big success (5m+ on Wii fucking U). Also, Arms will be the first big new game Nintendo makes exclusively for Switch, and it will be the main focus of its month as well (June). Not to mention they will release a new Joy-Con color especially for it. Which brings us to the next point: they are promoting the game well and will likely continue pushing it even more as we get closer to the release.

I predict it will do 1m on the first month alone (shipped + digital). 

Yes, of course.

This is interesting, I have no idea lol. The thing about Splatoon is that it was it's own thing and felt like a full game. ARMS looks like a tech demo... If I'm wrong and it feels like a full game AND they support it sure. If not then it will have to be bundled with the Switch to sell that many.

In the end, we should all hope that ARMS will be successful. There have been complaints about lack of new IPs from Nintendo and this is something the producer of Mario Kart thought up with his team. It looks fun so far and there are hints for more.

It all depends on how strong the core gameplay is. I'm still not sold on it personally.

1M should be given, 3M might be possible over time. This game might have legs.

After Splatoon? I wouldn't bet against it.

I went from thinking this game is motion control gimmick trash to I'm most likey going to buy it! I just wanna see a little more before I decide that it's a guaranteed purchase.

Now that's bold! Well if you mean the first full month after release and not just June (roughly two weeks) then that's a lil less bold. :L

Yeah my first impressions of it were very negative also, and I think a big part of that is because it was unveiled alonside 1-2 Switch, so at the time it seemed like Nintendo was desperately trying to relive the Wii Sports/Wii Party days and that ARMS would be shallow gimmicky trash like 1-2 Switch. Its reveal trailer was pretty awful too.

Its Treehouse showing and the recent direct however shows that is has far more depth and polish than its reveal suggested, and while I wouldn't say I'm sold on it as fighting games just aren't my thing, I will say that it looks like a good game and I expect it to clear the million mark comfortably.

Heh, we're of the same mind on this, even down to fighting games not being our favorite style of gameplay. For me I'm turned off by them due to how much dedication it takes just to play the game. Gotta learn convoluted combos and when/where/how to use them before you can get even slightly competent at the game. ARMS however follows the good ol Nintendo trend of easy to play, hard to master. You can pick it up and get right into the fun. This level of accessibility, plus the game hopefully being great and Nintendo advertising it well of course, is why I'm confident ARMS can become a multi-million seller.