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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bloomberg: Nintendo Traders Signal Switch Could Be Bigger Hit Than the Wii

Miyamotoo on 10 April 2017
Magnus said:
sethnintendo said:

You mean Xbox One and PS4.  The Wii U had better specs than the PS3 and 360.

If Wii U had better specs than PS3 and 360 they wouldn't have had any trouble porting 360 and PS3 games to Wii U. The reality is that the Wii U CPU was significantly weaker than the 360 or PS3 CPU so third-party ports ran worse on Wii U than on 360 or PS3.

Yes it has worse CPU but had better GPU and more RAM so it was stronger, and with optimisation in order that Wii U use more GPU and RAM Wii U is definitely more capable than PS3/Xbox360.

 

Magnus said:
zorg1000 said:

or you know, sales of the console and 3rd party software may have had a little bit to do with it.

Launch day ports ran worse on Wii U than on 360 and PS3. That is inexcusable.
Magnus said:
zorg1000 said:

lol you dont think devs having 6-7 years of experience working on those devices or games being rushed to make launch day have anything to do with that?

if third parties needed optimization to yield the same results on Wii U than on PS3 or 360 then the system was doomed, period.

You do realise that PS3/Xbox360 launch games looked much worse and run much worse then they did in 2012. when Wii U was launche!? Just compare some of 3rd party games from 2005/2006. with 2012. games on same platforms, we talking about night and day difrence. Every platform at launch has poorly optimised games that doesn't use nearly of max potential of hardware.

 

 

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Good, this means that either someone else already beat sense into you or you've come around to realize that by yourself. Because I did see you say that Wii U had a great launch only a few days ago.

The Wii U had a good first month, but it fell off a cliff after that because the Nintendo diehards bought it right away, but then there was nothing to draw in mainstream consumers.

Huge difference is that Wii U was launched in holiday season, and sales fail over a cliff right after Decembar in January (just after 1.5 month), while it seems that Switch will be strong even in second (most likly third also) month beacuse there is quite demand for it.



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curl-6 on 10 April 2017
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

The Wii U had a good first month, but it fell off a cliff after that because the Nintendo diehards bought it right away, but then there was nothing to draw in mainstream consumers.

Huge difference is that Wii U was launched in holiday season, and sales fail over a cliff right after Decembar in January (just after 1.5 month), while it seems that Switch will be strong even in second (most likly third also) month beacuse there is quite demand for it.

Hence May-July will be its first real test; the launch boost should have worn out by then and we'll get an idea of where its baseline is.



Miyamotoo on 10 April 2017
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Huge difference is that Wii U was launched in holiday season, and sales fail over a cliff right after Decembar in January (just after 1.5 month), while it seems that Switch will be strong even in second (most likly third also) month beacuse there is quite demand for it.

Hence May-July will be its first real test; the launch boost should have worn out by then and we'll get an idea of where its baseline is.

We will see, fact is that Wii U sales fall from cliff just after 1.5 month.



curl-6 on 10 April 2017
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

Hence May-July will be its first real test; the launch boost should have worn out by then and we'll get an idea of where its baseline is.

We will see, fact is that Wii U sales fall from cliff just after 1.5 month.

I never said otherwise. But it is too early to judge Switch's sales, early adoption never guarantees long term success.



Miyamotoo on 10 April 2017
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

We will see, fact is that Wii U sales fall from cliff just after 1.5 month.

I never said otherwise. But it is too early to judge Switch's sales, early adoption never guarantees long term success.

Of Course, I would say its best and wait sales numbers after holiday season, but Switch definitely right now shows much more positive things in any case compared to Wii U.



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bonzobanana on 10 April 2017
Pyro as Bill said:
bonzobanana said:

I would of thought sometime like June/July would give us a good indicator. Nintendo still haven't satisfied their core audience with stock yet we still need to see if it will appeal to a wider audience. I went into a CEX store and they had 3 Switch's all at inflated prices (one in the window, one in the instore cabinet docked and one undocked) so at least 3 people decided to get rid within the month and they looked used rather than pristine. I only mention it because sometimes when there is real huge demand people will pay these prices immediately. I can't remember exactly what the price was something like £310-330. Maybe they sold them because there was issues with them and they were less than perfect examples.

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

Limited range of poor performance games, lol. What does that even mean? I assume you mean the games actually run bad and not sales performance?

Are you still predicting 9m lifetime bonzo?

I predicted 9m for the original sku of Switch not further revisions but since then there was talk that Nintendo had authorised a 16m production run in total which again I assume is the original sku so if sales do decline badly they will have long term inventory of the existing model. I think a revised Switch will come sooner rather than later maybe early next year if they don't have an unsold stock situation like wii u. Same situation as DS vs DS lite. With regard the poor performance I mean the Switch has a very low technical performance level and will only be able to achieve low performance as a home console. PS4 and xbox one are moving into budget entry level purchases and these are both hugely more powerful than Switch with far better value games. I think later Switch's will focus more on portability than the home console functionality which is very low.

Again we need to see how Switch sells when their core audience has been satisfied. I see a slow down coming based on the mass audience not willing to pay such high retail prices in many markets. I also think the paid online around September will be very negative marketing just before Christmas which will be detrimental to sales.

Don't get me wrong though I see Switch being hugely more successful than wii u but I do think there will be a wii u effect to a lesser extent later on sales wise. 



curl-6 on 10 April 2017
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

I never said otherwise. But it is too early to judge Switch's sales, early adoption never guarantees long term success.

Of Course, I would say its best and wait sales numbers after holiday season, but Switch definitely right now shows much more positive things in any case compared to Wii U.

Better than Wii U is one thing; even the Gamecube did better than Wii U. But bigger than the Wii, the third highest selling console of all time? If Switch is over 13 million by 2018, then we can start talking about that.



Miyamotoo on 10 April 2017
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course, I would say its best and wait sales numbers after holiday season, but Switch definitely right now shows much more positive things in any case compared to Wii U.

Better than Wii U is one thing; even the Gamecube did better than Wii U. But bigger than the Wii, the third highest selling console of all time? If Switch is over 13 million by 2018, then we can start talking about that.

Agree, for such a prediction we need around 1 year of Switch on market.



AZWification on 10 April 2017

If the Switch sells 70m then considered me shocked!



                
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Magnus on 10 April 2017
Miyamotoo said:
Magnus said:

If Wii U had better specs than PS3 and 360 they wouldn't have had any trouble porting 360 and PS3 games to Wii U. The reality is that the Wii U CPU was significantly weaker than the 360 or PS3 CPU so third-party ports ran worse on Wii U than on 360 or PS3.

Yes it has worse CPU but had better GPU and more RAM so it was stronger, and with optimisation in order that Wii U use more GPU and RAM Wii U is definitely more capable than PS3/Xbox360.

Magnus said:

Launch day ports ran worse on Wii U than on 360 and PS3. That is inexcusable.
Magnus said:

if third parties needed optimization to yield the same results on Wii U than on PS3 or 360 then the system was doomed, period.

You do realise that PS3/Xbox360 launch games looked much worse and run much worse then they did in 2012. when Wii U was launche!? Just compare some of 3rd party games from 2005/2006. with 2012. games on same platforms, we talking about night and day difrence. Every platform at launch has poorly optimised games that doesn't use nearly of max potential of hardware.

Launch PS4 and XBox One titles didn't need optimization to look better than PS3 and 360 games. And even with optimization, the Wii U just couldn't handle open-world games well. Even Nintendo had trouble with open-world games: Xenoblade had several compromises and BotW has an awful framerate.