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bonzobanana on 10 April 2017
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Pyro as Bill said:
bonzobanana said:

I would of thought sometime like June/July would give us a good indicator. Nintendo still haven't satisfied their core audience with stock yet we still need to see if it will appeal to a wider audience. I went into a CEX store and they had 3 Switch's all at inflated prices (one in the window, one in the instore cabinet docked and one undocked) so at least 3 people decided to get rid within the month and they looked used rather than pristine. I only mention it because sometimes when there is real huge demand people will pay these prices immediately. I can't remember exactly what the price was something like £310-330. Maybe they sold them because there was issues with them and they were less than perfect examples.

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

Limited range of poor performance games, lol. What does that even mean? I assume you mean the games actually run bad and not sales performance?

Are you still predicting 9m lifetime bonzo?

I predicted 9m for the original sku of Switch not further revisions but since then there was talk that Nintendo had authorised a 16m production run in total which again I assume is the original sku so if sales do decline badly they will have long term inventory of the existing model. I think a revised Switch will come sooner rather than later maybe early next year if they don't have an unsold stock situation like wii u. Same situation as DS vs DS lite. With regard the poor performance I mean the Switch has a very low technical performance level and will only be able to achieve low performance as a home console. PS4 and xbox one are moving into budget entry level purchases and these are both hugely more powerful than Switch with far better value games. I think later Switch's will focus more on portability than the home console functionality which is very low.

Again we need to see how Switch sells when their core audience has been satisfied. I see a slow down coming based on the mass audience not willing to pay such high retail prices in many markets. I also think the paid online around September will be very negative marketing just before Christmas which will be detrimental to sales.

Don't get me wrong though I see Switch being hugely more successful than wii u but I do think there will be a wii u effect to a lesser extent later on sales wise.