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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict Zelda: BotW Shipments for the Quarter [I predict 3.7mil, Yours?]

A bit under 3m maybe, if we ever get to know because they'll only mention the WiiU version if it beats 1m.



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Switch 1.9m
Wii-U 900k



ZhugeEX said:
RolStoppable said:

You don't have to worry about getting attacked for your numbers, because you are going to get attacked for what you've posted instead. You already can't do any worse.

Although given that you expect hate for your numbers, I find it more likely that people will laugh at you, not hate.

EDIT:

2m for Switch
0.8m for Wii U

Total - 3.6m

Is this that new style math? 

#alternativeMath
also 2,8M is my guess too



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Mnementh said:
I have a feeling you're overly optimistic. I say 1.5 million Switch and 400K WiiU, so just below 2M combined. Would be nice if it is more though.

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Why are people underestimating WiiU version sales so much? It has already 400k pre-orders in US alone.



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John2290 said:
LipeJJ said:

I don't know about Wii U, but your Switch prediction is already wrong.

See, Switch sold about at least 1.5m so far (according to current sales data + researches and some common sense) and the attach rate for Zelda in regions we already have data is simply impressive (ranging from 75% to 97%), and that's only physically. So I think it's pretty safe to say that Zelda already sold something around 1.2m so far, and the month is not even over yet, plus we're talking about shipments so numbers will be bigger, naturally.

 

Btw, my prediction:

- Switch: 2.2m

- Wii U: 800k

- Total: 3m

I'm talking sales.

Then assume 90% sell-through for the game plus a 5% digital ratio (both versions). Assume, as well, that Japan is the bellwether of the world (60% attach rate).  That would translate to at least 1.32 million retail shipments for the Switch version, and an extra 65k or so digital sales.

That is what I'm assuming is the best-case scenario to make you look good. In reality, I see a slightly lower sell-through raio, a higher attach rate, and a slightly lower digital ratio.



 
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PEEPer0nni said:
Why are people underestimating WiiU version sales so much? It has already 400k pre-orders in US alone.

Both Switch and Wii U preorders ran out on Amazon.  Interesting, to me at least.



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RolStoppable said:
ZhugeEX said:

Is this that new style math? 

It's only there to see how much attention the community pays. Results have been disappointing.

I thought you were going for a crazy digital ratio...



A lot of this will depend on what Switch shipments are. Assuming that the Wall Street Journal was accurate, Nintendo have actually shipped 2.5 million Switch units, then Zelda could be off to a very strong start. I will assume an attach rate of roughly 80%.

So, if Switch shipments hit 2.5 million, Zelda at 2 million on Switch.
If Switch shipments are at 2 million, Zelda at 1.6 million.

The Wii U version is interesting. Sales are at roughly 75k in Japan, and there were reports of 400k pre-orders in the States. European/Australasian shipments of Wii U are roughly 60% of North American shipments, so I'll use that to estimate Wii U shipments to 'Other' territories.

Based on these bits of information, I'd guess Wii U Zelda shipments are around 900k: 500k to the Americas, 300k to Europe and 100k to Japan.

So Zelda will be somewhere in the region of 2.5 to 2.9 million combined, is my guess.



considering a 80% attached rate
1.8 Switch

and 750 Wii U



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