I'm all for Nintendo's success, but it seems like that number may be out of reach. We simply don't have enough information to know how the Switch is actually going to sell outside of its launch period, so I think they may have gone from a conservative estimate to an overly optimistic one. I plan to pick up a Switch sometime this year, anecdotally, but 18 million over its first 13 months is quite a lot, even more than PS4, and that exploded out of the gates. I'm not saying it's impossible, and more power to them if they do it, but I am a little skeptical. 

True but hear say is hear say until you hear it from  the horses mouth

I think the release schedule to hit this would have to be something along the lines of

May - ARMS
June - Nada
July - Splatoon 2
August - Super Smash Bros. Deluxe
September - Nada
October - Retro Game?
November - Super Mario Odyessy + price cut to $249.99
December - Pokemon Stars
January - Nada
February - Xenoblade 2
(early) March - Animal Crossing + New Switch Model

With Monster Hunter Switch and Dragon Quest XI also factoring in there somewhere.

It might make it if they focus on it as the 3DS successor alongside the home console aspect which is looking more and more so at this point. With heavy focus and the portability aspect(while looking pretty slick,) it might do very well in the future, and definitely better than the Wii U at the very least.

Idk about Stars in Dec. Most of Pokemon releases are October-November or (sometimes) the Spring

I'll give them a free pass until they get something wrong. But yes, technically only a rumor still

Don't forget a price cut, lol.

I take it you'll be suprised when it does it without Pokemon, Smash, Animal Crossing or a new model then?

edit: apologies, I missed November. Is that just Black Friday or permanent?

Disagree, there is no reason to gave price cut if they are satisfied with sales, Nintendo never gives price cut in its 1st year if they are satisfied with sales.

It's possible that we will have Pokemon Stars alongside Mario Odyssey for holiday season.

I don't think it's related to games. Even Pokemon doesn't double sales, and even if it did that would mean they just learned about a new Pokemon releasing in the next few weeks (you can't double the year sales with a end of the year release). It doesn't seem realistic at all.  

I think it's more related to "Our launch is close or even  better than the PS4 launch in several countries so we can achieve PS4 level sales numbers". And that thinking is wrong IMO (or at least it's way too soon for that), because a great launch was easily expected, but the rest of the year will be more complicated (once the Nintendo fans are equipped). 

Retro game is almost certain 2018. game. March is too early for new Switch model, only one year.