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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Zelda BotW will do a Whopping 10mil Lifetime! Update 10mil Achieved

The replies on the first page of this thread are very funny.   I kind of wish I was on this forum back when this was posted.  I would have been a lot more bullish than 10m for Zelda.  The best I can do is this thread from March 2018.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=235151&page=1



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

The replies on the first page of this thread are very funny.   I kind of wish I was on this forum back when this was posted.  I would have been a lot more bullish than 10m for Zelda.  The best I can do is this thread from March 2018.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=235151&page=1

It was certainly underestimated I even had a prediction of 9m or so sales and that was seen as optimistic in comparison mainly due to people not fully realizing the change in role BOTW has initiated for Zelda, the franchise has gone from being the dedicated first party that is handled like a Triple A to now filling the GTA/RDR void in the first party line up it has specific role in the platform's library and momentum now. Even if someone hasn't been into the franchise before BOTW acts as a great alternative to the R* games which puts it into a powerful position in the library as now it can potentially rival or even as seen here surpass Mario in selling power as waiting for the next mainline Zelda game will possibly be equivalent to waiting for the next GTA/RDR now.



I also recall someone making a prediction that Breath of the Wild will surpass Super Mario Odyssey in sales.

At 14.52 million it has closed the gap from 2.2 million in January down to 840K. It's also fair to note that while Super Smash Bros passed Zelda in its first quarter, in 2019 it didn't do a lot to widen the gap as Smash sales are slowing down while Zelda sales are actually accelerating year over year.

Breath of the Wild will be the Switch's #2 game next year unless Pokemon sales do something insane.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Azzanation said:
And to think that Zelda has sold so well with barely if not any price drops, forced bundling and giveaways. Sony and Xbox should take note.

I dont think Sony or MS can do such.

Halo and gears, wouldnt sell Zelda numbers at full price.
The only PS4 game that *might* would be god of war, even at full price it would still sell insanely well because its basically a system seller.
(ei. if you own a PS4 you need that game, type deal, which is what BoTW is to switch)

Also Microsoft is trying to go the Freemium type mobil way, with getting the games into users hands as a cheap service, and then selling micro transactions to make profits. So their basically going the otherway around.

Also as a end consumer, I dont think we should be praiseing them for makeing more money off of us.
I rather get a good deal, and a cheaper sold game, if possible.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 26 November 2019

bring out the Crows *klonk*
bring out the Crows *klonk*
bring out the Crows *klonk*
bring out the Crows *klonk*

that is all..



3DS FC# 4553-9947-9017 NNID: Bajablo

Torn-City - MMO text based RPG, join me! :)

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Wow, the first page aged really well. I agree with Bajablo, crows must flood the site.

Like I get why some users thought the way they did. Going off of the past Zeldas at the time, specifically Skyward Sword, it would be easy to say it's going to sell like the last ones. But this was a different beast of a Zelda game.



JRPGfan said:

I dont think Sony or MS can do such.

Halo and gears, wouldnt sell Zelda numbers at full price.
The only PS4 game that *might* would be god of war, even at full price it would still sell insanely well because its basically a system seller.
(ei. if you own a PS4 you need that game, type deal, which is what BoTW is to switch)

Also Microsoft is trying to go the Freemium type mobil way, with getting the games into users hands as a cheap service, and then selling micro transactions to make profits. So their basically going the otherway around.

Also as a end consumer, I dont think we should be praiseing them for makeing more money off of us.
I rather get a good deal, and a cheaper sold game, if possible.

Both Sony and MS rely heavily on bundled sales to boost Nintendo like numbers, that doesnt mean they dont sell incredibly well however Zelda without the help of bundles and sales is legendary. Halo use to do similar numbers like current GoW however again, those franchises are heavily bundled with regular deals. Zelda still sells for $89aus digital and iv never seen it drop but you could correct me if i am wrong.

Also its the only game to sell more copies than consoles at launch. Its why many consider it the game of the gen.



JRPGfan said:
Azzanation said:
And to think that Zelda has sold so well with barely if not any price drops, forced bundling and giveaways. Sony and Xbox should take note.

I dont think Sony or MS can do such.

Halo and gears, wouldnt sell Zelda numbers at full price.
The only PS4 game that *might* would be god of war, even at full price it would still sell insanely well because its basically a system seller.
(ei. if you own a PS4 you need that game, type deal, which is what BoTW is to switch)

Also Microsoft is trying to go the Freemium type mobil way, with getting the games into users hands as a cheap service, and then selling micro transactions to make profits. So their basically going the otherway around.

Also as a end consumer, I dont think we should be praiseing them for makeing more money off of us.
I rather get a good deal, and a cheaper sold game, if possible.

I'm all for a good deal, but I'm also aware of the importance of the concept of intrinsic value when it comes to market stability.  So while I do want to see Nintendo lower their prices faster, I'm not comfortable with MS's strategy of fire sales, ridiculous bundles, and Game Pass because it just erodes the concept of games having intrinsic value.  We saw a similar battle between premium and service/freemium business models in the mobile space and the latter won out and look where that market is now:  the concept of intrinsic value is all but lost with premium games struggling to maintain any kind of presence at a descent price point, freemium service based games are more predatory and shallow than ever, and it's the trenches of the Somme for anyone trying to do anything innovative in that space.  



Jumpin said:

I’m going to make BOLD prediction myself.

one MILLION copies!

Well, I was totally off... How about this one?

one hundred BILLION copies!

Edit! Never mind! I literally made that same prediction 1 year and 5 days ago.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

tbone51 said:

 

 

Thoughts? I mean why not? Btw im talking ship+digital for wiiu/switch combined.

 

Post....

 

Im going for it! 10mil+ 

Bro your NSW software predictions are all ending up MILD (I'm kidding - this one is a crazy over-performance lol).

This one will get 4x-ed IMO.  You saw that chart I sent you earlier, non-JP sales are still trending up.

With one more quarter to go, current FY will get real close to 5M outside of JP, and this year even JP is up (at retail at least).

2019 9 weeks 71K

2020 9 weeks 49K

2021 9 weeks 57K