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Forums - Sales Discussion - Horizon Zero Dawn Predicted To Sell 8 Million Units, Close To Uncharted 4

"In its report, SuperData CEO Joost van Dreunen cited Horizon Zero Dawn's strong review scores from critics as an element that could help boost sales"

But, but reviews don't matter!

At an individual level they don't matter. But reviews do affect the overall sales of a game.



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I think everyone agrees that 8 million is a bit too ambitious. 3.5-4 million seems more plausible for a new and unproven IP. Hopefully it does hit those numbers. That would be fantastic.



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Rafie said:
I think everyone agrees that 8 million is a bit too ambitious. 3.5-4 million seems more plausible for a new and unproven IP. Hopefully it does hit those numbers. That would be fantastic.

That's much more reasonable and would still make the it GGs best selling game of all time.



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pitzy272 said:
Mbolibombo said:

TLOU was also hailed as one of the best games of all time and while Horizon has been awarded with absolute stellar reviews they're not as fantastic as for the other games mentioned.

Yes of course, but my point is that horizon also has some things going for it that TLoU didn't. So I'm just saying I could believe it if horizon sold close to 8 million. It's not likely, but it's possible. 

Me and a few others said Uncharted 4 selling 10million was in the realm of possibility, and most people scoffed at that prospect. Now U4 will end up selling well beyond 10million. All I'm saying is that with PS4, I've learned to not rule anything out for sales, especially for a game with broad appeal. 

Uncharted 4 was also an existing supersuccesful IP. It had everything going for it, full marketing (something I havnt seen for Horizon at all), a studio widely acclaimed which is something Guerilla really isnt. Not to say, Zelda is launching almost at the same time which is really taking all eyes from the game. Sadly, but true.

Horizon is THE game I bought my PS4 for, but since it's launching next to Zelda.. It will just have to wait.. and I do think that is how many people will feel.

 

For every thing that Horizon has going for it, I could think more things going against it sadly. With that said, I hope it sells extremely well since it looks to be flat out amazing. 



That's Supadata and I don't really trust them. Having said that, I can see it selling very well.



 

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Mbolibombo said:
pitzy272 said:

Yes of course, but my point is that horizon also has some things going for it that TLoU didn't. So I'm just saying I could believe it if horizon sold close to 8 million. It's not likely, but it's possible. 

Me and a few others said Uncharted 4 selling 10million was in the realm of possibility, and most people scoffed at that prospect. Now U4 will end up selling well beyond 10million. All I'm saying is that with PS4, I've learned to not rule anything out for sales, especially for a game with broad appeal. 

Uncharted 4 was also an existing supersuccesful IP. It had everything going for it, full marketing (something I havnt seen for Horizon at all), a studio widely acclaimed which is something Guerilla really isnt. Not to say, Zelda is launching almost at the same time which is really taking all eyes from the game. Sadly, but true.

Horizon is THE game I bought my PS4 for, but since it's launching next to Zelda.. It will just have to wait.. and I do think that is how many people will feel.

 

For every thing that Horizon has going for it, I could think more things going against it sadly. With that said, I hope it sells extremely well since it looks to be flat out amazing. 

Of course, but that's kind of beside my point. I wasn't saying it was surprising that Uncharted 4 sold well--of course it sold well. I was saying it was surprising just how much it sold. I mean, Uncharted 4 will end up selling nearly double what any of its predecessors sold. That's not typical growth from sequel to sequel. There are likely many reasons for its growth, including marketing and Naughty Dog's even higher acclaim since TLoU; however, I think the primary reason for the growth is the system U4 was sold on. 

Ps4 consistently puts out exclusives that succeed, financially. The Order was one of Sonys biggest exclusive mistakes, and I think that even went on to do okay. I mean, look at Nioh. Did you see the announcement that, <17 days after release, it already sold 1 million? That's damn impressive, considering the type of game it is and it's lack of AAA status.

Again, I think HZD will sell, more realistically, closer to 5 million. All I'm saying is that if Sony announced a year or 2 from now that it sold 7-8 million, I wouldn't be too surprised.

(Link to Nioh sales announcement:  http://m.ign.com/articles/2017/02/24/nioh-passes-1-million-sales-free-dlc-released)



SpokenTruth said:
GG's best selling title is Killzone 2 at ~3 million. FPSs tend to sell better than open world action/RPGs. Far Cry: Primal sits at 2.5 million.

8 million would put it in leagues of Fallout 4, CoD, Uncharted and Star Wars: Battlefront. That's just asking way too much.

What? Those games are 15~ million sellers (at minimum for some). UC4 is an easy 10 million seller. 

 

This is an open world RPG, and those can sell really well, look at The Witcher 3 for example (10m+) 

 

Open world action games this gen can sell, a lot too. Far Cry Primal is a spin off, and it's marketing and quality are no match for Horizon. 



Mbolibombo said:

For every thing that Horizon has going for it, I could think more things going against it sadly. 

I'm curious, what's going against it?



                                                                                                             

CGI-Quality said:
Mbolibombo said:

For every thing that Horizon has going for it, I could think more things going against it sadly. 

I'm curious, what's going against it?

it is launching at the same time as zelda and seeing how the switch will sell 50 million units in it's first day horizon is getting his/ her ass kicked



Splatoon sold 4.5 million on a console that is way less popular, so it's not impossible.
It's still rather unlikely though.

 

Nirvana_Nut85 said:
Not unless it's bundled as heavily as Uncharted 4 was, I cannot see it selling that much. 3.5-4 million sounds about right.

Indeed. Uncharted kept on selling because of the bundle. By the end of August, it only sold 4 million, now it's over 8 million.