Take a look at 3DS lineup in 2011 for comparison, it did 4.3 million that year. Here are the big sellers for 3DS in Japan in 2011 and the amount they sold that year.

Professor Layton Miracle Mask-355,000 (February)

Nintendogs+Cats-455,000 (February)

Ocarina of Time 3D-490,000 (June)

Monster Hunter 3G-987,000 (December)

Super Mario 3D Land-1,092,000 (November)

Mario Kart 7-1,190,000 (December)

So you had a couple of big launch titles in February and a few huge holiday titles with a 13 year old remaster as the only major title in between. Switch has a much better lineup of big games and they are spread out through the year.

What are you comparing?

You have been obsessed with the game library and ignoring the significance of price...

Mario kart 7 4.600 yen, 3DS 19.000 yen vs Mario kart 8 deluxe 6.800 yen, switch 29.000 yen!

Switch should sell like 3DS in the first year, if some of the wii audience returns!

The Game library much as attractive it is, people won't buy they product that it's on, if they find it overpriced/expensive! Switch for the 3ds owners who only want a portable console is overpriced/expensive.   Even ps4 having all that vast game library wouldn't sell so much if it was overpriced/expensive for its audience ( 499$). As I aforesaid, the 499$ xbox one was selling like wii u despite the huge third party support, they had to ditch kinect for xb1 to reach the regular 399$  price point for a robust console ( early at its lifetime )  in order its sales to skyrocket.

Hence, they will wait for a cheaper switch mini/lite or a low priced handheld only device that takes the same games.

3DS also had a 40% price cut in late summer that year, though, which really helped to bolster sales from then on. There are a number of variables at play here, though and you're right that Switch has some big marquee titles this year. Zelda and MK8 Deluxe could get things going, with Spla2oon bridging the gap in the summer until Mario arrives in the holidays. But to compare sales of the two consoles without knowing whether Switch will get a massive price cut isn't a very fair comparison. To me, it just sounds unlikely that Switch will move almost as many units as 3DS did without a price cut. 

But I could be way off base, too. Looking at your numbers, you make a compelling argument. I'm torn. lol

What are you comparing?

You have been obsessed with the game library and ignoring the significance of price...

Mario kart 7 4.600 yen, 3DS 19.000 yen vs Mario kart 8 deluxe 6.800 yen, switch 29.000 yen!

Switch should sell like 3DS in the first year, if some of the wii audience returns!

The Game library much as attractive it is, people won't buy they product that it's on, if they find it overpriced/expensive! Switch for the 3ds owners who only want a portable console is overpriced/expensive.   Even ps4 having all that vast game library wouldn't sell so much if it was overpriced/expensive for its audience ( 499$). As I aforesaid, the 499$ xbox one was selling like wii u despite the huge third party support, they had to ditch kinect for xb1 to reach the regular 399$  price point for a robust console ( early at its lifetime )  in order its sales to skyrocket.

Hence, they will wait for a cheaper switch mini/lite or a low priced handheld only device that takes the same games.

Agreed, iPhone and Android have simply pushed too far into the mobile space for dedicated handhelds to be massively successful any more. Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

Nintendo is in a tough spot with the thing, because 3DS is still selling, the only handheld to do much of anything, so they're effectively competing against themselves despite the 'unified' production idea.

This all could have been fixed with a dedicated handheld version for $199 or so, 4" screen with non-removable controller integration and no included dock.

In fact, two SKUs would have been probably far more successful than the gimmicky thing they're putting out.

Model 1 : The 4" dedicated handheld listed above : $199.

Model 2 : A dedicated home model, no screen or mobile aspect whatsoever : $149

Play the exact same games, unify their development/etc, but with models specific to purpose instead of the expensive, chunky not-quite-convenient thing they've come up with. Hugely less expensive to the consumer, and for the superfans like those that have both 3DS and WiiU, those people would probably buy both models anyway.

The decision to go with touchscreen probably makes this impossible now though, even as a later SKU growth. At best a smaller handheld variant may come out, but an affordable screenless home model for people who don't care about traveling with it at all is out of the question.

I hate touchscreen gaming, so I don't bother with phone/tablet games either, but those that don't mind it mostly play iOS/Android anyway.

Even withiout the awful accessory pricing, $299 is going to really stunt this thing out of the gate IMHO, once the superfans get through with the first shipment. It reminds me a lot of the XB1 annoucnement and plans, where they clearly expected to be the dominant console of the gen, thought that forcing Kinect and $499 USD was all just great. And sure enough, the hardcore Xbox fans almost universally agreed with all of that (check the forums back then, it was as you'd expect : XB fans saying 'yay, this is just fine', and literally everyone else saying 'wtf, really?'). The XB1 initial plans seemed to have been developed in an echo-chamber of yes-men with no critical big-picture analysis, and it really seems to me this NS launch plan is yet another thing that probably sounds great to many of the supercore Nintendo fans, but doesn't light up the regular consumer at all. As seen by the Dreamcast and WiiU, aiming square at your biggest fans is not a guarantee of success. And I really liked both of those systems (despite thinking the WiiU tablet was a mistake, and the pricing was terrible).

I'm sure all of that sounds incredibly harsh, but it's what I'm seeing. Despite all of that, I still think Nintendo has the best overall 1st party in the industry.

Im comparing it to the Switch lineup, the big games for 3DS in 2011 either appeared at launch in February or during the holidays in Nov/Dec with only one big game in the middle of that 9 month stretch while Switch has a pretty steady flow of big games throughout the year.

Because people buy gaming devices to play games. A price cut only causes a temporary boost and without those big games that 3DS got in late 2011 than sales would have went back to pre-price cut levels.

Im not claiming price isnt a factor, it definitely is but using 3DS sales at $250 to support the argument that Switch wont sell well to handheld gamers at $300 is illogical. Switch has a compelling special feature, strong marketing & a steady flow of big games. This cannot be said for 3DS when it was priced at $250.