Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

[zorg1000]

tak13 said:

zorg1000 said:

Take a look at 3DS lineup in 2011 for comparison, it did 4.3 million that year. Here are the big sellers for 3DS in Japan in 2011 and the amount they sold that year.

Professor Layton Miracle Mask-355,000 (February)

Nintendogs+Cats-455,000 (February)

Ocarina of Time 3D-490,000 (June)

Monster Hunter 3G-987,000 (December)

Super Mario 3D Land-1,092,000 (November)

Mario Kart 7-1,190,000 (December)

So you had a couple of big launch titles in February and a few huge holiday titles with a 13 year old remaster as the only major title in between. Switch has a much better lineup of big games and they are spread out through the year.

What are you comparing?

You have been obsessed with the game library and ignoring the significance of price...

Mario kart 7 4.600 yen, 3DS 19.000 yen vs Mario kart 8 deluxe 6.800 yen, switch 29.000 yen!

Switch should sell like 3DS in the first year, if some of the wii audience returns!

The Game library much as attractive it is, people won't buy they product that it's on, if they find it overpriced/expensive! Switch for the 3ds owners who only want a portable console is overpriced/expensive.   Even ps4 having all that vast game library wouldn't sell so much if it was overpriced/expensive for its audience ( 499$). As I aforesaid, the 499$ xbox one was selling like wii u despite the huge third party support, they had to ditch kinect for xb1 to reach the regular 399$  price point for a robust console ( early at its lifetime )  in order its sales to skyrocket.

Hence, they will wait for a cheaper switch mini/lite or a low priced handheld only device that takes the same games.

Im comparing it to the Switch lineup, the big games for 3DS in 2011 either appeared at launch in February or during the holidays in Nov/Dec with only one big game in the middle of that 9 month stretch while Switch has a pretty steady flow of big games throughout the year.

Because people buy gaming devices to play games. A price cut only causes a temporary boost and without those big games that 3DS got in late 2011 than sales would have went back to pre-price cut levels.

Im not claiming price isnt a factor, it definitely is but using 3DS sales at $250 to support the argument that Switch wont sell well to handheld gamers at $300 is illogical. Switch has a compelling special feature, strong marketing & a steady flow of big games. This cannot be said for 3DS when it was priced at $250.