Ups, double post!

Good point.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/276502/Nintendo_believed_Wii_U_sales_would_hit_100_million_says_Kimishima.php

It hurts them because now when it doesn't do those numbers it's seen as a faliure. It also makes Nintendo look really out of touch.

To who? The Wii sold to old people and kids on the back of a nearly dead gimmick, and the handheld market has collapsed.

It's doable if Nintendo keeps making smart decisions with the Switch.

Everything with the Switch thus far in terms of presentation and marketing has been perfect and on point. The system has a simple and easy message: a console that can become portable to take on the go. There's no confusion there like there was when the Wii U launched. The little *snap* they use with the Nintendo Switch logo is catchy and memorable. The TV ads, especially the super bowl ad, have all been great.

The system itself is a nice looking device too.

There is legit hype for the system right now and if they can keep that momentum up post launch with a new big game release or announcement almost every month that will keep hype going, and that's possible too since we know they have enough Switch games planned for 2017 to where they could have one release every month.

"In an internal sales representative meeting, someone projected that we would sell close to 100 million Wii U systems worldwide,"

Someone. Not him. This is what HE believe:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2015/09/15/new-president-of-nintendo-thought-the-wii-u-would-fail/#469872961167

And no. Expecting Wii sales and not reaching it is not failure if it comes short by a few amount. By a large amount of course. But this is only PR talk to investors. Not to forum dwellers, especially for those that laughed at the Wii, for example.

It sold to people on the back of the theory of disruptive technology, one of the most well-researched and scientifically backed up business theories of all time, with a sample size of 300,000 companies across thousands of industries. It's also the theory that made Apple successful under Steve Jobs and Jobs called "The Innovator's Dilemma" (the original  book on disruptive innovation) "the most influential book I have read in my life."

The Wii's success was not a fluke, not a surprise, not based on a gimmick. Nintendo talked nonstop about disruptive innovation before the Wii launched. They shoved it into our faces. But hardcore gamers chose to ignore all of this and, because they didn't understand what was going on, decided the Wii success was due to luck. 

People tend to dismiss the Wii success. It is normal that they believe it was because of luck.

To people who value convenience over fidelity and to people who like to be social.

Which is literally the entire mass market.

Also, not that it matters because the Switch is a tabletop console and not a handheld, but the handheld market has not collapsed. This gen was just a weak gen for handhelds because the offerings were not as revolutionary as the last ones. DS popularized touch gaming and PSP was the first portable multimedia machine. That's why they sold like they did. They were pioneers. 3DS and Vita were not pioneers for anything, so they both sold less, obviously.

The Switch, in turn, is a pioneer for a new kind of console hardware - the tabletop console. Analogus to what laptops did to the desktop computer, the Switch is doing the same thing for home consoles, but with the hindsight of what has come since, like tablets and smartphones. I'm sure I don't need to explain to you how laptops and tablets have vastly eclipsed desktop computers in usage. Maybe you'll be surprised if the Switch becomes a masssive success, but I sure won't be.

I think people like you overcomplicate the appeal of a device like this, or at least misunderstand how valuable it is to normal people. Normal people care about convenience and normal people care about flexibility, a lot. That's obvious from the response of the reveal trailer. That 30 second superbowl commercial is the entire appeal of the system in a nutshell.

You don't have to play just on your TV anymore. If your friends like playing Smash or Street Fighter or whatever, you don't have to plan a date at your house anymore and you don't have to buy a second controller. If you have a small TV, or your TV is in an other room, you don't have to get up anymore. If you're really into a game, but you have to go to work or to class, you don't have to leave it at home anymore. You can play on breaks now and then continue when you get home. We live in a universe of infinite possibilities. There isn't only one way to make a success, and "gimmicks" certainly wouldn't be the only way if there was.

Switch is the convenience console, and convenience dominates the mass market. Innovation comes in all shapes and sizes. Switch is a different kind of innovation than the Wii, but it can bring in the exact same kind of success. Especially since it's portable and social. That's absolutely huge for it.

Wii Sports didn't take over the world because motion controls were cool - it did because the novelty of motion gave people an excuse to get together and have a good time together. As more people got together, tried it, and had fun with each other, word of mouth spread. That's what made Wii succeed. Switch will have the same exact social thing exept you won't need a house party to do it. All of those social experiences that propelled word of mouth for the Wii can be had anytime, anywhere.

When Switch drops with Zelda on launch day and reviews rave, your friends won't just tell you how awesome it is - they'll show you and let you try it yourself because they can now. Switch launches with only 5 (major) games. Breath of the Wild, 1-2 Switch, Super Bomberman R, Just Dance 2017, and Skylanders. None of them are bundled in. You know why that line up is good for Nintendo? Because Nintendo has surgical control of what experiences people are having and talking about at launch. All 5 of those games will sell well at launch because that's really all people will have as a choice to play. 3 (4?) of those games are social games, which again are literal vehicles for spreading word of mouth. Just Dance, contrary to any bad rep that game has among the core gaming comminity, continues to sell well, and the Switch is a platform made for games like that. I really don't know how people are going to take 1-2 Switch, but I couldn't have predicted people would like Wii Sports either. I can at least say that it looks like a good drinking game like Wii Sports was, and it actually benefits from not using a screen because the Switch's screen is so small anyway.

I totally get if the Switch doesn't appeal to you personally, but I don't see how you can look at mass market trends objectively and not see the potential of something like this. It's like being a desktop computer enthusiast, and not understanding why most people prefer using laptops, tablets, and even smartphones. It doesn't matter that desktops are more powerful. People prefer the convenience of untethered devices.

Pretty much.