Bumping this thread up 6 years later, wanted to see the predictions for the Switch before it launched. Only 7% of people accurately predicted the Switch selling over 100M, and I'm sure even less than that expected a console that will likely sell around or above 150M by the end of its lifecycle. Pretty crazy.

The general consesus here seemed to be that the Switch wouldn't neccesarily be a failure, but definetly not a major success either, somewhere around 30-50M. I also predicted around this amount before launch. I thought around 3DS sales numbers could be a possibility too but never thought it could've reached Wii level numbers and I would've called you a troll if you were to tell me the Switch would sell close to PS2 numbers, but here we are.

OMG, I remember people on forums everywhere were saying "DOA" after the January 2017 presentation. I think that's why none of us is an analyst, the market has variables we are not able to visualize.

Congrats on being exactly right.

this thread was certainly full of pachters. embarrassing!

It was uncharted territory. Wii U was a failure that sold notably below even the GameCube and the 3DS couldn't even sell half the amount of the DS.

Keep in mind that with the exception of the Wii, every Nintendo home console sold less than the last.

As Switch was launching, I saw Wii as the ceiling and Wii U as the floor. Realistically, I figured it would sell between the NES and 3DS. With Nintendo's record, other game platforms, and mobile and PC gaming, it's no surprise so many thoughts matching or exceeding the Wii was not a viable prediction. 

Am I too late to say it won't outsell the Vita? xD

Titanfall and Destiny lol. Are they even a thing anymore?

Thanks but I wouldn't say 'exactly right'. I definitely made some faulty assumptions to get to DS/PS2 levels. I thought CoD and GTA would make an appearance even if they were gimped. I assumed the price would be a lot lower by now and unifying libraries would result in bigger software output and the Virtual Console would've reached Wii already. I thought on the go local multiplayer would have kids playing FIFA and CoD in the wild to the same extent as Mario Kart DS did.

Most predictions were abysmal because their starting point was 20m (GC/WiiU) instead of the 3DS's 70-80m or they took 3DS as baseline and subtracted 40m because "handhelds are dying". The price shocked some people because they saw it as an overpriced handheld OR a last gen Nintendo home console instead of a $180 console AND a $120 handheld like the core Nintendo gamers did.

The theory that cazualz abandoned the Wii Fit gimmick to get their fix from fitness apps on their touchscreen phone can finally be laid to rest now that Switch Fit is at 15m+. I didn't think RFA and Switch Sports would be outsold by 3D Mario, Zelda and Smash though. I said Switch would have more 10m and 20m sellers than Wii-DS combined but massively underestimated how well they'd sell (wtf Animal Crossing?) and overestimated 3rd party contributions.

Myths debunked: Motion control is a fad, permanent decline, Wii was a fluke, handhelds are dying, Nintendo consoles are for cazualz, it's too early to predict.