Switch is a very expensive portable with short battery life or a very underpowered home console both with very expensive games and not many to choose from. Sadly I really see it failing very badly once the Nintendo fans have got their's. I just can't see it finding a wider audience at all unless it gets a huge price drop.

I hope to be wrong though but for those people who just have one games system I honestly can't see any reason for them to move away from ps4, pc or xbone. They will deny themselves mainstream games, decent performance and pay through the nose for it. Who are those people?

For those who need a portable its too huge an investment in both hardware and games and has all that inconvenience of very short battery life. The existing 3DS range seems better as portable systems with greater portability, battery life and a greater range of cheaper games or alternatively android or ios devices. I think a clamshell design which you fold over to protect the screen is a far better portable format. The Switch screen is horribly exposed it needs its own dedicated case which adds more to the bulk and size especially with all the charging cables and adapters you might need to keep the Switch going. To be honest I always felt Nintendo moving away from the long battery life of the DS series was a mistake and the Switch goes even further with lower battery life. One of the great advantages of the DS over the PSP was a huge increase in the length of time you could play on it. On the DS you could play all day and then charge. I just don't see the Switch as a product people will want to use as a portable and just too expensive and over-complicated for parents to give to their young children. The most convenient portable gaming system is your mobile phone. It's always with you and charged and has a wide range of very low cost software ideal for quick gaming sessions.

What is the ratio of people playing on mobile phones vs portable game consoles. I can't remember the last time I saw someone with a games console while travelling be it bus, coach or train is always phones, tablets and laptops. Maybe its just children that would use them but again then you look at that price again and say no most of them won't have Switch's.

At the moment it feels more like another Wii U to me; an excessive price tag paired with an unattractive controller gimmick.

It had nothing of interest besides Twilight Princess. I still have no idea why people liked Wii Sports so much. It was a cheaply made tech demo. Wii Sports Resort was much better. 

Let's not pretend Wii Sports was a good game or something special. It was a barebones tech demo. 

By comparison 1,2 Switch makes Wii Sports look like Skyrim, lol. You go from actual visual tennis of some kind to *imagining* a fake ping pong table in front of you. 

Bowling, boxing, tennis, baseball, etc. are also things that are universal and easy to understand since most people have tried some variation of those in real life. 

But things like .... milking cows and catching samurai swords with your hands .... eh. I don't see it. The other problem I see with 1,2 Switch is it's a whole lot of waiting/stopping in between games. 

1, 2 Switch at least isn't a scam like Wii Sports was. You just waggled the wii mote. Wii Motion Plus is what they tried to market Wii Sports as in 2006. 

I don't know, none of your points make sense or are concrete reasons for its potential success. Regarding the pricing, Wii shipped with a pack-in game. The Switch doesn't ship with any game.

Wii was also relatively *a lot* cheaper at the time than Switch is now so it doesn't really matter. Back then the average consumer who was generally interested in entertainment of all mediums, and not just a video game enthusiast, looked at the $250 price tag and saw better value in it than Xbox 360 which sold for $500 or the PS3 which sold for a whopping FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS. There's an insane amount of difference in $250 and $500. Today, the average person will see better value in relatively lower priced PS4/XB1 than in Switch and will have less reasons to buy a Switch when the HD twins are already available.

I can never see the Switch selling like the Wii. But it is possible that it becomes successful if Nintendo drops the price by $100 like they did with the 3DS the same year as it's release, and also announce/release blockbuster titles such as Pokémon, Monster Hunter (for Japan), Mario or convince some major 3rd party developer to port their game over to the Switch... I specifically mean Rockstar and their RDR2.

Nintendo's fate isn't set in stone, yet. They could easily drop the price, release major first party title (alongside Mario), release major third party title this holiday and I could easily, easily see this thing fly off the shelves. Perfect opportunity for the holidays. And if they keep this up then perhaps it could sell as much as the PS4, even.

I think you might be missing a few genres on Wii launch.  Wii had Excite Truck at launch which is racing. 

NS has redout and mk8deluxe within a month.

I think it can get to 30 million if it gets Pokemon, and they do a more powerful and more portable version around 2019 or 2020, since that will get Nintendo fans to buy a second. Otherwise I just don't see major success from this device. I expect this to be Nintendos last platform, and I think we will see Nintendo as a 3rd party partener on PS5 and XB/Surface home consoles next gen.

With that said, this will be the first Nintendo console I have actually bought since N64. With the first true sucessor to Mario 64 I just can't resist. The same can not be said, for anyone else I know. So far all I hear is, "I would rather just have their games on my PS4/XBO or iOS/Android device.