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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Horizon and Zelda... a week apart? Will BOTW be overshadowed by the new Sony IP.

 

I will be playing...

Both Horizon: ZD and BOTW. 114 10.18%
 
Just Horizon. 290 25.89%
 
Just BOTW. 520 46.43%
 
I'm going to wait to see... 33 2.95%
 
BOTW first then Horizon. 120 10.71%
 
Horizon first then BOTW. 43 3.84%
 
Total:1,120

if anything Horizon may be overshadowed by Zelda. rough game to launch near



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recent story trailers for both games

Horizon Zero dawn - 1.1m views

Zelda breath of the wild - 5.6m views



Lmao, I'm sure Zelda will be just fine.



katakpisang said:

 

recent story trailers for both games

Horizon Zero dawn - 1.1m views

Zelda breath of the wild - 5.6m views

Not sure any of these comparisons mean all that much. For starters Horizon was revealed at E3 in 2015, Zelda was revealed at E3 2016. So only natural that being the year it was revealed Zelda would be discussed more than a game on the minds of consumers for over a year.

And the trailer reviews is pretty much meaningless. One is a trailer just released by playstations own youtube account with very little marketing and push behind it. The Zelda trailer was revealed during a console launch event streamed across the globe with millions of people watching.



pcstation4 said:
sc94597 said:

So are you predicting sales on the order of 10 million for Horizon? It is clear that BoTW will likely sell more than 5 million lifetime at the very least, likely more. The lowest selling 3D Zelda sold - Majora's Mask sold ~ 3.36 million. The last three 3D Zelda's sold 4 million (Skyward Sword), 8.66 million (Twilight Princess), and 4.6 million respectively (Windwaker.) Breath of the Wild has more hype than Skyward Sword had, and userbase is not an issue for Nintendo platforms because Nintendo fans saturate them, and it is hard to find a NIntendo fan who doesn't love The Legend of Zelda. Attach ratios for the game should be high.

So are you seriously telling us that the new IP that is Horizon: Zero Dawn is going to sell on the order of ten million?

I expect Breath of the Wild to sell ~3 million and Horizon(good reviews) ~6 million. Breath of the Wild will have a better attach rate but PS4 larger install base will lead to double sales for Horizon. Just my prediction. I'm new to this btw.

Just wondering where you're getting this idea from?  

3m is the lowest possible sales number I expect from Breath of the Wild.  If you look at view counts of trailers for each game, Breath of the Wild has Horizon easily beat.  

11m views for Breath of the Wild's 2016 E3 trailer
7.5m views for Horizon Zero Dawn's 2016 E3 trailer

Both of these are the respective games' most viewed trailers on YouTube.

I know views don't translate to sales, but from a sheer recognition point of view, I don't see how you are getting your numbers.  
Another thing to point out is that Horizon is PS4 exclusive, and Breath of the Wild will have a Switch and Wii U release (this increases the effective install base by a considerable amount over time and gives Breath of the Wild better legs than Horizon for launching on a new system).  There's also something else you might need to know, though.  Install base means very little for games like The Legend of Zelda.  See: Windwaker (over 4m on a system with about 20m) and Ocarina of Time (over 7m on a system with a little over 30m).  



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BeatdownBrigade said:

Not sure any of these comparisons mean all that much. For starters Horizon was revealed at E3 in 2015, Zelda was revealed at E3 2016. So only natural that being the year it was revealed Zelda would be discussed more than a game on the minds of consumers for over a year.

And the trailer reviews is pretty much meaningless. One is a trailer just released by playstations own youtube account with very little marketing and push behind it. The Zelda trailer was revealed during a console launch event streamed across the globe with millions of people watching.

Except you're wrong.  Zelda for the Wii U was revealed way before E3 2016.



Zelda botw was revealed at e3 2014



MDMAlliance said:
pcstation4 said:

I expect Breath of the Wild to sell ~3 million and Horizon(good reviews) ~6 million. Breath of the Wild will have a better attach rate but PS4 larger install base will lead to double sales for Horizon. Just my prediction. I'm new to this btw.

Just wondering where you're getting this idea from?  

3m is the lowest possible sales number I expect from Breath of the Wild.  If you look at view counts of trailers for each game, Breath of the Wild has Horizon easily beat.  

11m views for Breath of the Wild's 2016 E3 trailer
7.5m views for Horizon Zero Dawn's 2016 E3 trailer

Both of these are the respective games' most viewed trailers on YouTube.

I know views don't translate to sales, but from a sheer recognition point of view, I don't see how you are getting your numbers.  
Another thing to point out is that Horizon is PS4 exclusive, and Breath of the Wild will have a Switch and Wii U release (this increases the effective install base by a considerable amount over time and gives Breath of the Wild better legs than Horizon for launching on a new system).  There's also something else you might need to know, though.  Install base means very little for games like The Legend of Zelda.  See: Windwaker (over 4m on a system with about 20m) and Ocarina of Time (over 7m on a system with a little over 30m).  

To be fair, something like Skyward Sword also sold like 3.6 million on a console with an install base of 100m. In fact most Zelda titles only sell in the 3-4 million range outside of like 3 of them. I'm not gonna take guesses as to what is going to sell how many or who will sell more. Futile argument right now without knowing how good either game is being reviewed and how popular the Switch ends up being. Horizon is a new IP so historically that typically changes sales expectation, and on the flip side most people seem to over-estimate truly how much of a unit pusher Zelda has been historically just cause of its name and nostolgia.



katakpisang said:

Zelda botw was revealed at e3 2014

Alright re-revealed. It was shown in 2014 and then in the dark and delayed multiple times until being showcased once again in 2016. It was not shown at all at E3 2015, nor new footage of it at all shown in 2015 at any event.



BeatdownBrigade said:
MDMAlliance said:

Just wondering where you're getting this idea from?  

3m is the lowest possible sales number I expect from Breath of the Wild.  If you look at view counts of trailers for each game, Breath of the Wild has Horizon easily beat.  

11m views for Breath of the Wild's 2016 E3 trailer
7.5m views for Horizon Zero Dawn's 2016 E3 trailer

Both of these are the respective games' most viewed trailers on YouTube.

I know views don't translate to sales, but from a sheer recognition point of view, I don't see how you are getting your numbers.  
Another thing to point out is that Horizon is PS4 exclusive, and Breath of the Wild will have a Switch and Wii U release (this increases the effective install base by a considerable amount over time and gives Breath of the Wild better legs than Horizon for launching on a new system).  There's also something else you might need to know, though.  Install base means very little for games like The Legend of Zelda.  See: Windwaker (over 4m on a system with about 20m) and Ocarina of Time (over 7m on a system with a little over 30m).  

To be fair, something like Skyward Sword also sold like 3.6 million on a console with an install base of 100m. In fact most Zelda titles only sell in the 3-4 million range outside of like 3 of them. I'm not gonna take guesses as to what is going to sell how many or who will sell more. Futile argument right now without knowing how good either game is being reviewed and how popular the Switch ends up being. Horizon is a new IP so historically that typically changes sales expectation, and on the flip side most people seem to over-estimate truly how much of a unit pusher Zelda has been historically just cause of its name and nostolgia.

You're kind of proving my point that install base means little to the Zelda franchise.  Skyward Sword was also released near the end of the Wii's life time, and that DOES matter.  Twilight Princess, on the other hand, sold really well (and is more comparable to Breath of the Wild, being at the end of Gamecube and start of Wii).  

I don't think it's an over-estimation to say 3m is the absolute minimum for Breath of the Wild, given the huge hype behind it.  It can turn out to be a crap game, but that doesn't change the fact that 3m is probably going to be sold through near the launch of the game.  However, I highly doubt it'll be a crap game given how much it's been demoed already and how much people have liked it so far.  At worst it'll be mediocre.