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MDMAlliance on 18 January 2017
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pcstation4 said:
sc94597 said:

So are you predicting sales on the order of 10 million for Horizon? It is clear that BoTW will likely sell more than 5 million lifetime at the very least, likely more. The lowest selling 3D Zelda sold - Majora's Mask sold ~ 3.36 million. The last three 3D Zelda's sold 4 million (Skyward Sword), 8.66 million (Twilight Princess), and 4.6 million respectively (Windwaker.) Breath of the Wild has more hype than Skyward Sword had, and userbase is not an issue for Nintendo platforms because Nintendo fans saturate them, and it is hard to find a NIntendo fan who doesn't love The Legend of Zelda. Attach ratios for the game should be high.

So are you seriously telling us that the new IP that is Horizon: Zero Dawn is going to sell on the order of ten million?

I expect Breath of the Wild to sell ~3 million and Horizon(good reviews) ~6 million. Breath of the Wild will have a better attach rate but PS4 larger install base will lead to double sales for Horizon. Just my prediction. I'm new to this btw.

Just wondering where you're getting this idea from?  

3m is the lowest possible sales number I expect from Breath of the Wild.  If you look at view counts of trailers for each game, Breath of the Wild has Horizon easily beat.  

11m views for Breath of the Wild's 2016 E3 trailer
7.5m views for Horizon Zero Dawn's 2016 E3 trailer

Both of these are the respective games' most viewed trailers on YouTube.

I know views don't translate to sales, but from a sheer recognition point of view, I don't see how you are getting your numbers.  
Another thing to point out is that Horizon is PS4 exclusive, and Breath of the Wild will have a Switch and Wii U release (this increases the effective install base by a considerable amount over time and gives Breath of the Wild better legs than Horizon for launching on a new system).  There's also something else you might need to know, though.  Install base means very little for games like The Legend of Zelda.  See: Windwaker (over 4m on a system with about 20m) and Ocarina of Time (over 7m on a system with a little over 30m).