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Forums - Sales - The Nintendo Switch will sell less than the Wii U...

 

Will it sell less than the Wii U?

Yes. This thing is looking to be a flop 133 17.85%
 
No, but it'll still sell like shit 229 30.74%
 
No, it'll sell very well... 323 43.36%
 
It'll outsell the PS4 an... 60 8.05%
 
Total:745
Nem on 13 January 2017

Doesn't have Miiverse either. One of the good things about the Wii U. The communities were pretty good. Especially during E3.



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thismeintiel on 13 January 2017
barneystinson69 said:
Nautilus said:
Good lord, people are going into a tantrum just because the online is now paid and the acessories are expensive.Yes those things sucks, big time, but it wont hold the console down, especially since the competition has been doing that for a decade now(cant be certain about the acessories part).

The Switch is weaker, but it will offset that by having more functionalities and be more versatile.The 300 dollars price point is good.Just because is 50 dollars more expensive than most people thought(blame the "leakers"), its not going to fail because of that.300 is still a good price.Not to mention that the holidays is 9 months away and its enough time to do a price cut or/and an attractive bundle.

The launch lineup may be smaller in quantity(at the very least there is 12 games confirmed for launch, even though a decent number of those are only confirmed for launch at Japan.we dont know about rest of the world yet), but the quality is superior.I mean, personally Zelda alone is much better than the launch games of PS4 and XOne combined, so thats says alot.And the first year is also much better in terms of quality(again, personal opinion).

So dont worry.I mean, it is very likely that Japan alone will sell more than Wii U lifetime, thanks to Zelda Mario and Splatoon 2 first year.

Wgat about the Wii U? It had lots of new features, and the hype surrounding it was insane.

Yea, I don't think Nintendo fans remember how much hype was put into the Wii U pre-launch.  Even suggesting it would flop would bring BIG laughs and the fallback argument of "this is the successor of the successful Wii, but also appeals to tablet gamers, and has 3rd party support."  Hell, even those who thought the Wii U would perform poorly overestimated it.  I think I predicted somwhere between 40 and 60 million for the thing.  Of course, even those numbers were scoffed at.  Turns out it was MUCH worse.  And before the PS4/XBO launched, they were saying console gaming was dead because "if this is how the Wii successor performs, the PS4/XBO don't have a prayer. "

Now, they are using similar style of arguments.  "It's protable."  "It has a new Zelda."  First of all, Zelda has never been a huge franchise.  It sells well, but nowhere near Mario well.  Nor does it push a lot of HW.  And 2nd, portability didn't save the 3DS, which launched at $50 less than the Switch is.  Nintendo had to do a $80 price cut to save it.  Basically the real argument truly is "because its Nintendo."

Having said that, I don't expect it to sell less than the Wii U.  It should at least double it.  Of course, if that's all it does, it's still a VERY bad result for Nintendo, considering this is getting their full attention.  At that point, they might as well start thinking about going either 3rd party or mobile.



 

zorg1000 on 13 January 2017
barneystinson69 said:

The XB1 and PS4 are in the same price range, have far more games, are far more known to the public, and have better online services and better specs. Very uphill batttle for the Switch.

When DS launched in late 2004, PS2 & Xbox cost the same, had far more games, were more known to the public, had better online services and better specs. It was a very uphill battle for the DS.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

NintendoPie on 13 January 2017
barneystinson69 said:

And was cut to $170 within 6 months because it was dying. I mean if thats the case, it shouldn't have a problem at all...

Aiming for the 3DS' worst period will still put it ahead of the Wii U in the end, so why not?



KLXVER on 13 January 2017

They might have priced their way out of success. Its hard to say. They might lower the prices and it will do well like they did with the 3DS. Plus this is their next handheld as well. Pokémon alone will make sure it does WiiU numbers I think.



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Pyro as Bill on 13 January 2017
ICStats said:
No, but it'll still sell like shit.

It may sell more than Wii U while cannibalizing the 3DS business. Overall Nintendo's revenues will be in ruins.

Handheld tie ratios are ~half of home console's.

Handheld games are ~66% cost of home console's.

$60 x 10m = $600M

$40 x 5m = $200M

Nintendo could have the same software revenues as 3DS+WiiU with only 40-50m Switch consoles sold (25-35m replace 3DS, 15m to replace WiiU). Hardware prices look like they could be cut without making a loss. 3DS and WiiU don't have subscription revenue.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

barneystinson69 on 13 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
barneystinson69 said:

It would be better if the switch was simply a portable console without a dock. They could sell it for $199 easily, and add the dock as an accessory. The XB1 and PS4 are in the same price range, have far more games, are far more known to the public, and have better online services and better specs. Very uphill batttle for the Switch. Thats why I said if Nintendo drops the price early on (and maybe their online thing as well), they'll do far better. You can ever read the OP yourself.

It looks like a big uphill battle because you apply symmetrical thinking to competition that is asymmetrical.

Switch is the only console that plays Nintendo games. (Important because Nintendo is always among the publishers who sell the most games.)
Switch offers different ways to play games.
Switch is a home console that is also portable (read: hybrid).
Switch emphasizes local multiplayer in multiple forms.
Switch offers higher value to collectors because games come on cards AND are complete. (No GBs of patches.)

The catch with asymmetrical competition is that the value evaluation that is made by any given consumer can completely turn upside down to what you think is the only correct way. You highlighted strengths of the PS4 and XB1, but they can't compete with what I have listed. They stand absolutely no chance. This is how the Wii beat the PS3 and 360 despite the gaming industry clearly favoring the HD consoles.

When I say price is an issue for Switch, then it's not in relation to what the PS4 and XB1 cost. The price is an issue because the consumer that is attracted by Nintendo generally does not put a value on specs and sees the console merely as a tool that plays games. Even if the Switch was a 10 teraflop machine, I would still call the launch price too high.

The Wii U also could play Nintendo games. This has a poor launch lineup, and is $300. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

GProgrammer on 13 January 2017

It should sell more than wii U, mainly because of Japan & being handheld, it will bomb everywhere else though.
I'm guessing about 20 million sold when all is said and done.

I'm expecting a pricecut very early on, like 6 months after release due to the low sales.

I notice nintendo's shares took a dive today



VAMatt on 13 January 2017

If they get it down to $250 with a bundled game by holiday 2017, then I think it will be fine. If they keep it at $300 with no game for very long, it will be their last console.



barneystinson69 on 14 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
barneystinson69 said:

The Wii U also could play Nintendo games. This has a poor launch lineup, and is $300. 

The Wii U was also symmetrical competition. The Gamepad didn't change that, just like Kinect 2.0 didn't make Xbox One something different.

I will try to give you an example. Let's assume that Skyrim came to the Wii U. It would have featured inventory and map on the Gamepad screen. Who the hell cares. - Skyrim on Switch, however, can be played anywhere you want. That's more interesting.

Something as basic as a multiplatform game can have some actual value on Switch while PS and Xbox can't do anything about it. Competing with Wii U was easy, but Switch doesn't bend to the same rules. Sure, price is going to be an issue for Switch in year 1, but neither Sony or Microsoft will match the things that Switch offers, so Nintendo has the time to fix the pricing.

Do you know what you're saying? Nintendo is trying to be "different" again, and that's not helping them. Mark my words Rol, either the price drops like a rock, or the thing flops.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).