I'm gonna say worse than 3DS 1st year but better than Wii U 1st year. This could change depending on what else gets announced, but price is a huge barrier right now.

Depends on when the next pokemon releases.If it releases within the next 2 years it's a sure thing that it's also gonna be on 3DS. Also it's not like a Pokemon game is a very hard thing to port.

Thats what I also think Nintendo is trying to do. Have something every month rather than exploding it at launch and have nothing for the other months. And maybe they will continue to do this low stock strategy very month. 

They freaking ruined it with the pricing. Come on. The thing costs as much as a PS4 + UC4. It's starting to look like Wii U 2. As expensive as PS4/X1, weaker and with way less 3rd party support.

Is this supposed to be also a 3DS successor? They are alienating 60M+ consumers by launching a successor by 300 bucks. The 3DS only started selling well for 175. This also alienates the potential casual consumers that play Mario Run or PoGo. It's basically priced like a hardcore device but lacking most stuff hardcore gamers want.

PS4 will probably get a cut to 250 this year. X1 also. I could see both selling by 200 in the Holidays if both companies wanted to compete aggressively. PS4 also packs a huge lineup this year. I can see the Switch getting an early aggressive price cut like the 3DS did.

It's going to have a terrible launch. Zelda fans probably already have a wii u and there is not 1 worth while launch title other than that. I don't see many people paying $300 for a system less powerful than another system with the same price that's packed with a game. Holiday might be positive given the lineup by then, but even then one of the biggest games on the horizon is online and paying to play for 1 game doesn't seem worth it to me, so spla2n might be a pass.
On a side note, i'm not against paying for online play. That shit costs money and i understand that. I'm just saying a subscription is probably not worth playing the 1 title i'd use it for.

Going to struggle outside of Japan because of lineup and price. Going to struggle in Japan initially because of price.

I think it'll sell well the first year even if the casuals don't jump on board. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo took into consideration the games that will be releasing in the first year when they considered the Switch's price. If they truly are going to be coming out of the gate in the first year with a software lineup spearheaded by BotW, Mario: Odyssey, Pokemans Stars, Splatoon 2 and enhanced versions of Smash and Mario Kart, then they can get away with a $300 price tag before they drop the price before next year's E3.

We just had one, so a new one may be a way off but they'll do a update of a set at some point. It's Diamond and Pearl next so when they release Pokemon Sparkling Diamond and Shiny Pearl they could arrive on 3DS but the following one could be on the Switch after it establishes it's user base. Hmm, oh well.

It's the Wii U situation all over again... So what should we expect?
The only place I can see this console selling good is in Japan and only because it's portable...

Yeah, I hope that's what they're gonna try to do. It would make no sense to have a bunch at launch when they're only shipping 2 million for March anyway, and Zelda should easily be able to fulfill all of those shipments/sales just by itself.

They need at least one big game every month to keep momentum and sales going, so it would be better for them to try and do it that way and to also avoid having any droughts in 2017.