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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Michael Pachter Prediction Tracker Thread

Tagging! This should be fun

Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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RolStoppable said:

Pachter's track record might come out to 50/50 in being right or wrong, but he got his reputation because the things he gets right tend to be as difficult to predict as another Cleveland Browns loss while he can be way off the mark when he is wrong despite visible signs that contradict his reasoning.

“It’s a really good exclusive title and I think it attaches at a pretty high rate to the install base so probably 3.5 to 4 million of the install base, and then I think it will probably attract another 1 to 2 million to buy a PlayStation 4 in the next few months. So I would imagine it would be 5 million through the year’s end and it’s great,” Pachter said in an interview with GamingBolt.

“I think it’s going to receive good reviews."

There's more at the link, but this was right before the game's release.

At times he also does a complete 180 within a few months. Whether that is about covering all bases or honestly changing his mind on a subject is anybody's guess. Sometimes he also just says things to piss people off and get more hits for his videos.

Wow that's epic.

Everybody on VGC knew beforehand that 1886 would at best be a moderate success (like 1 million), and only a few optimistic members predicted 2 million.


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Not sure if this counts as a "prediction", but added

Pachter has weighed in with his Nintendo Switch "Verdict".

Nintendo Switch faces an uphill battle because of its "problematic" $299 price point and an "underwhelming" slate of launch titles, Wedbush video games analyst Michael Pachter has said.

"Priced at $300, Switch is not a more affordable alternative to the PS4 and Xbox One. Initial pricing is likely to be problematic given an underwhelming slate at launch and the fact that the PS4 and Xbox One are consistently discounted at retail below their starting prices of $300 with a free software pack-in," believes Pachter.

"While Nintendo clearly relies upon the unique gameplay offered by the new device, it will need to convince a large audience that its newest device is more substance than gimmick in order to drive better long-term adoption than the Wii U saw."

Pachter says Switch hardware sales will reach one million in financial year 17, which ends March 31, although Nintendo has stated it will ship two million units in March. The following year Pachter forecasts Switch sales of five million units.

Beyond this, Pachter feels third-party support will be a key driver for continued Switch sales.

"Sales beyond the first year will be affected by third party software support; the underpowered Switch is unlikely to attract much," he explained.

"A solid first party release slate is promising, but limited third party support will likely limit hardware demand later in the year. Zelda , Mario, and Splatoon titles are expected in 2017, but only a handful of new games are expected at launch. The cost of accessories is surprisingly high, and Western third party support appears limited to ports of Xbox 360 and PS3 games. We think that hardware sales will be limited without substantially greater third party support.

"Should Switch start slowly, we expect third-party publisher support to begin to wane as it did with the Wii U previously. Among the notable games, EA announced that FIFA 17 will be launching later this year, and Bethesda Softworks' The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim will be available at some point. We expect many publishers to take a wait-and-see approach in terms of their financial commitment beyond the first one or two games, especially if porting costs are high."

Nintendo Switch launches March 3, with many retailers already selling out of their launch allocations.

Source: Wedbush Equity Research

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Good news for the Switch!

I updated this with a few new predictions. There are some hits and misses here.

Please post any other predictions that you see.

In 2007, he said that the PS3 will be the best selling console of the 7th generation.

Flilix said:

In 2007, he said that the PS3 will be the best selling console of the 7th generation.

Interesting.  There are actually a few predictions in there.

Honestly, Pachter isn't that bad. He does say some stupid things but most of the hate garnered towards him is his predictions that put down a certain console or put a certain console in a good light. Over time he's upset a lot of console fans even with reasonable predictions.