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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Michael Pachter Prediction Tracker Thread

SWORDF1SH said:
Honestly, Pachter isn't that bad. He does say some stupid things but most of the hate garnered towards him is his predictions that put down a certain console or put a certain console in a good light. Over time he's upset a lot of console fans even with reasonable predictions.

Relatively seen he is quite bad.

Our predictions wouldn't be better than his, but nobody writes articles about us. I don't get why his predictions are news-worthy, since he's wrong quite often.



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Miguel_Zorro said:

Pachter has weighed in with his Nintendo Switch "Verdict".

https://www.videogamer.com/news/pachter-gives-his-nintendo-switch-verdict

Nintendo Switch faces an uphill battle because of its "problematic" $299 price point and an "underwhelming" slate of launch titles, Wedbush video games analyst Michael Pachter has said.

"Priced at $300, Switch is not a more affordable alternative to the PS4 and Xbox One. Initial pricing is likely to be problematic given an underwhelming slate at launch and the fact that the PS4 and Xbox One are consistently discounted at retail below their starting prices of $300 with a free software pack-in," believes Pachter.

"While Nintendo clearly relies upon the unique gameplay offered by the new device, it will need to convince a large audience that its newest device is more substance than gimmick in order to drive better long-term adoption than the Wii U saw."

Pachter says Switch hardware sales will reach one million in financial year 17, which ends March 31, although Nintendo has stated it will ship two million units in March. The following year Pachter forecasts Switch sales of five million units.

Beyond this, Pachter feels third-party support will be a key driver for continued Switch sales.

"Sales beyond the first year will be affected by third party software support; the underpowered Switch is unlikely to attract much," he explained.

"A solid first party release slate is promising, but limited third party support will likely limit hardware demand later in the year. Zelda , Mario, and Splatoon titles are expected in 2017, but only a handful of new games are expected at launch. The cost of accessories is surprisingly high, and Western third party support appears limited to ports of Xbox 360 and PS3 games. We think that hardware sales will be limited without substantially greater third party support.

"Should Switch start slowly, we expect third-party publisher support to begin to wane as it did with the Wii U previously. Among the notable games, EA announced that FIFA 17 will be launching later this year, and Bethesda Softworks' The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim will be available at some point. We expect many publishers to take a wait-and-see approach in terms of their financial commitment beyond the first one or two games, especially if porting costs are high."

Nintendo Switch launches March 3, with many retailers already selling out of their launch allocations.

Source: Wedbush Equity Research

This is a fine example of what Pachter does. Revised verdict from one week later with no new Switch information being made available.

http://www.nintendo-insider.com/2017/01/pachter-nintendo-switch-will-be-successful/

“I think that Switch is priced ok. There is a lot there for the $299. It’s slightly less expensive than the Wii U was at launch. I think that the control scheme, the tablet, the docking station and the ability to play on [the] television is more intuitive, more kind of normal gaming controls than we had with the Wii U,”

“I think a lot of people didn’t understand the GamePad with Wii U. Pricing is ok, game control scheme makes sense. I think the software line-up is better. I’d have to go back and look, and count the number of first-party titles that were launched with the Wii U, but it seems to me like there’s more first-party titles and a lot more third-party titles, it sounds like, that are interesting in the launch window. I think that Switch will probably start out better.

“Wii U sold 3.9 million units in its first year. I think Switch does about double that. I’d say around 7 million, possibly 8 million units. I think the launch in March is smart. So yes, I think better than Wii U. Time will tell if we get enough third-party support to keep the momentum going. But I think early momentum will be strong, and I think Switch will be successful. ”

“Look, nobody has a Wii U. So, I think you’re going to get everybody who never bought a Wii U, plus… I think it’s the second console in the household.”



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Here's some blasts from the past.

Prediction, May 2005: Seventh-gen market share by end of 2010 to be "Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left."

Verdict: Incorrect.
Based on VGC numbers, global market share was at about 46% for the Wii, 28% for the 360, and 26% for the PS3.

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/features/wms-ps3-to-win-console-war-because-of-blu-ray/70379/?biz=1">Two Predictions, May 2007: PS3 to 'win' seventh generation by slim margin (excluding Japan sales) because of Blu-ray. Blu-ray to win format war over HD-DVD.

Verdicts: First prediction incorrect. Even excluding Japan, the Wii was the #1 console of last generation. Second prediction correct. Blu-ray won the HD format war. HD-DVD has been dead since 2008.

Prediction, June 2009: Wii to get price cut before holidays.

Verdict: Correct. The Wii was reduced $50 to $200 in the U.S. in September.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

How did I not stumble across this thread before? Great work at compiling his predictions!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

New Elder Scrolls in 2017? I can definitely see that with the remastered version of Skyrim coming out last year, please be correct!



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Seems like he's been right more times than not.

Edit: I think all his 2017 predictions will be right. 

Edit 2: Except the PS4 being 199 and Switch being sold out until September. 



About time we had an official thread to idolatrize the greatest *cough* in being wrong *cough* analyst of the industry!Tagging



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

I don't know about the guy the only thing i think i heard about him is how he said Console gaming is dead forever or something like that.

This guy makes sometimes makes some really bad prediction from what i read.



NobleTeam360 said:

Seems like he's been right more times than not.

Edit: I think all his 2017 predictions will be right. 

Edit 2: Except the PS4 being 199 and Switch being sold out until September. 

There are a few that I have to add.  My feeling is that when my list is bigger, he'll be about 50/50.



Miguel_Zorro said:

Gaming Analyst Michael Pachter has been around for 10 years now.  He makes a lot of predictions.  They generate a lot of controversy here, often because he says things that we don't want to hear.

He also has a reputation for being wrong a lot.  So I asked myself - is he actually wrong more often, or do we just selectively remember the times that he was wrong?  Or do we just choose to believe he is wrong because we don't like his predictions?

In this thread, I'll make a list of his predictions, and track which ones were correct.  Feel free to help.  I ask that any predictions and results come with cited sources.

I believe he's more often wrong if you don't count as a prediction when he's captain obvious, when he contradict himself, or when he have a wide mergin of error (for xbox, he could have predicted 20, 25 or 30, that's a whole difference but it would still be "close"). Most of his predictions are stupidities or mistakes, he does not have a better understanding of the market than the average joe here.