Miyamotoo said:
Switch, dock and controller that includes Joy Grip and Joy Cons will be part of every SKU, most likly more expansive SKU ($299) will come with game and more storage. Screen today isnt expansive at all, but Switch is packed with lotsa techs and functions (look at that Switch patent thread), and ofcourse dock and controller that includes Joy Grip and Joy Cons. 3DS has 240p screen. :D Actually XL version is best selling version of 3DS from moment appeared on market, despite there are cheaper version of 3DS and 2DS, and actualy 2DS is worst selling version.
Thats a point, Switch isn't just a handheld, it's also home console, its basicly 2 in 1, home console and handheld out of box and out of box ready for local multiplayer without any need to pay for another controller.
Definitely can run evre PS4 ports at 720p with maybe some other smaller downgrades, XB1 has games at 1080p and 900p, and actualy smallest number of 720p games. Point that Switch CPU is ARM doesn't mean it's weak, modern ARM CPU can easily outperform mobile AMD CPU from 2012 (PS4/XB1 CPU is notebook CPU and actualy bottlneck for XB1/PS4), and actually sources saying that Switch CPU will be with power close to XB1/PS4 CPU. I agree that is most for 3rd parties platforms most important is actually popularity of platform, but its also important that Switch tech/hardware is very modern and easy to work with it.
What made Wii U 3rd party are terrible sales of Wii U after launch and fact that was very early clear that Wii U is fail and don't have future, that's why 3rd party totally abandoned Wii U in its 1st year.
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The problems with your analysis is that you're trying to use the 3DS as a price comparison, while I'm using a Shield tablet, that's way closer in cost. 3DS is 5-year old tech (being generous, it's actually way more than that), so ir ends up being a bit overpriced because components are made exclusively for it. Who else uses a 240p glass-free 3D screen? Nobody. And a 720p 6.5' multitouch screen? Millions of tablets.
You are considering that the techs packed on the Switch are expensive, when they indeed are not. Basically, it just has a port to output video (tablets usually have HDMIs) and ports to slide the controllers. It's not like those costed 100 bucks.
The Tegra X1 is indeed close in performance to an Athlon 5150, that is a quad core version of the Jaguar used on PS4, so we are probably still dealing with a decent gap in the single components that is more bottlenecked on the PS4.
You pixel count still doesn't match. Tegra X1 is weaker than you think. It packs around 40% of the punch of a GTX 750, the weaker desktop Maxwell GPU (https://www.quora.com/How-do-modern-mobile-GPU-compare-to-desktop-ones). A GTX 750ti, that's a good equivalent for the GPU on the PS4 is 10% more powerful, so PS4 probably is 2.75X stronger while X1 is around 1.8X. The pixel increase from 720p to 900p is roughly 50%. In a very, very approximated math, we can assume that this isn't matching plain and simple: 80% more power pushing 50% more pixels, so it is closer to running a 900p game with X1 settings at 540p or less. We dould have to turn quite a bit of settings down to reach 720p. These benchmarks were made using the Tegra X1 on ARM boards or Shield console, so they can be more similar to "docked" performance than mobile one. My main worry is that it can end up being to weak to receive ports without some reengineering, instead of the current PC/X1/PS4 situation where you just tune some settings or the resolution and call it a day.
Regarding the Wii U, maybe if 3rd party games were successful, it would keep receving all games and the console would sell. Software sells hardware. You install base argument doesn't work when you consider that PS4 in its first few months had a smaller install base than the Wii U and 3rd parties still sold several times more copies than on the Wii U. The kind of consumer that buys Nintendo home consoles is the one that has other console or a PC os simply doesn't care about 3rd parties. Those are a minority, specially the first case that is for consumers with more cash. The single console owner are the majority and they gravitated towards Sony and MS to get 3rd party games.
This leaves Nintendo with two options:
- Create a 3rd party friendly console: risky, since it would have to match PS4/X1 in power and they would still have to assure that 3rd parties would support it instead of consoles with 25 or 50M units on the wild. They would have to basically pay for support and it could still backfire.
- Create a cheaper console, to be used by casuals or as second console to play Nintendo games: it has to be cheap. Less than 200 bucks. As the Switch is significantly weaker, they are going this route. If they combine it with a high price, it won't work.