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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Zelda: Breath of the Wild Sales Predictions

WagnerPaiva on 05 December 2016
TheGreatOther said:
WagnerPaiva said:

Lifetime 5 million if Switch is a ok console.
If Switch is a smash hit, 13 million

First week: 500k on WiiU, 1 million on Switch.

Twilight Princess only sold around 6 million on Wii's 100 million installbase, so I don't think it matters how much a console sells, it's going to stay in that 5-6 million range.

Dunno, I just have this good feeling this time around... 



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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Luke888 on 05 December 2016

I'm going high with this one : 3.7M FW, 11M LT



Trunkin on 05 December 2016

2m first week, and maybe between 7-9m LT.



Acevil on 05 December 2016

Only predicting lifetime, and that is 7.77 million.



 

Pavolink on 05 December 2016

At least 4M LT.



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Wyrdness on 05 December 2016

If NS does well 8m life time.



Slarvax on 05 December 2016
maxleresistant said:
many of you are way too high

Look at Twilight princess ans its 8millions unit sold, it was on gamecube, a console far more successful than the WiiU, and on Wii, a console far more successful than the Switch could ever be.

It will sell well though, but somewhere between 4 and 7 millions, my guess is 5.8

The industry has changed since then. It has grown a lot (excluding Japan), and it's much more mainstream. Games sell a lot more, so there's potential for every game. Heck, even if the Switch doesn't sell 50 million units, Nintendo fans buy a lot more games these days (see Splatoon, MK8 and Smash tie ratios).

But on the other hand, Nintendo didn't take advantage of this until the NX was first mentioned...



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maxleresistant on 05 December 2016
mZuzek said:
maxleresistant said:

it is, but some people on this thread are giving crazy numbers like 13 or 12 millions. That will never happen... I can predict the Zelda franchise will never sell that much in one episode. At least not without some really really big changes.

It's funny because Breath of the Wild is actually bringing some really really big changes.

Also, it's hard to defend your point about the install base. Twilight Princess sold 8 million on an install base of around 120m consoles... well Ocarina of Time sold 7 million on an install base 4 times smaller. Wind Waker was the most controversial Zelda at its time and on an even smaller install base, still sold 5 million.

Zelda games aren't largely influenced by install bases, that much is a fact and has always been. They don't sell to people who own the system, they sell the system to people.

That was implied, that's why I went for 5.8, and wrote that it will go somewhere from 4 to 7 millions. The install base is a factor, but it's not THE FACTOR.

That's also why I said that it will never sell 12 or 13 millions, because it will need to sell on a console with an install base of 200+ millions to do that.

As for Breath of the Wild changes, yes there are a lot of them, but to sell 13 millions you'll have to change a lot more. Games that are selling these kind of numbers are nothing like Zelda.

 



maxleresistant on 05 December 2016
Slarvax said:
maxleresistant said:
many of you are way too high

Look at Twilight princess ans its 8millions unit sold, it was on gamecube, a console far more successful than the WiiU, and on Wii, a console far more successful than the Switch could ever be.

It will sell well though, but somewhere between 4 and 7 millions, my guess is 5.8

The industry has changed since then. It has grown a lot (excluding Japan), and it's much more mainstream. Games sell a lot more, so there's potential for every game. Heck, even if the Switch doesn't sell 50 million units, Nintendo fans buy a lot more games these days (see Splatoon, MK8 and Smash tie ratios).

But on the other hand, Nintendo didn't take advantage of this until the NX was first mentioned...

Are you really a writer here? The console gaming industry has been declining dangerously, yes the PS4 started with reallly good numbers, but it's failing in japan (compared to their previous consoles) and Nintendo's market shares are the ones that took the biggest hit.

Yes if you include the mobile industry, gaming right now is hotter than ever. But let's be serious here, 12 millions Zelda, one on failed system and the other on a new console that could probably fail miserably ?



Swordmasterman on 05 December 2016
Mar1217 said:
LipeJJ said:

I know, I think it can/will do 1m+ FW combined, I'm just saying this isn't 100% guaranteed yet. It will need a great attach rate for the first week to do it.

Btw, can you do a breakdown between Switch/WiiU of your 3.5m prediction? I'm guessing you're expecting the Switch version to do at least 2m FW? In that case, the attach rate would need to be something like 50% FW. I believe that's unprecedented (or extremely rare) for a game not bundled.

I'll do better. I'll put my prediction for each worlwide section (N.A,Eur. and Japan)

N.America : 1,5M(Switch), 0,3M(WiiU)

Europe : 0,75M(Switch), 0,2M(WiiU)

Japan : 0,4M(Switch), 0,1M(WiiU)

P.S : After revising my numbers I'll put down my prediction to 3,25M copies sold in FW. And the game is probably gonna have a bundle with the switch. But later in it's lifetime.

Will Zelda sell that low on the Wii U(Japan) compared to the Switch ? The Wii U has almost 3.5 millions of installbase there.