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Forums - Politics - Prediction: Trump Wins Popular Vote, but Clinton Wins Electoral Vote

Veknoid_Outcast on 06 November 2016
Mr.GameCrazy said:
Veknoid_Outcast said:

No it is statistically much more likely for Clinton to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college than the other way around.

Nationally she is polling about 4% ahead of Trump, but state polls in the so-called Rust Belt are tightening, meaning Trump could squeak by in Ohio and claim 270+ electoral votes but lose the popular vote by a few percentage points. According to polling aggregate site 538 there's about a 12 percent chance of this happening. The odds of your scenario coming to pass are less than 1 out of 100.

Thanks for letting me know. 

No problem! Lots of cool analyses on 538 if you ever want to read more about election trends and data.



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Mr.GameCrazy on 06 November 2016

To be honest, I hope I'm wrong about my prediction and that Hillary Clinton wins both (even though I'm not a fan of both candidates), but no matter what happens, I don't even want to think about the election anymore when it's over.



Normchacho on 06 November 2016
Mr.GameCrazy said:
To be honest, I hope I'm wrong about my prediction and that Hillary Clinton wins both (even though I'm not a fan of both candidates), but no matter what happens, I don't even want to think about the election anymore when it's over.

I do honestly think she'll win both. What really makes things interesting is the new news from the FBI. It should help Clintons chances, but we're so close to the election we probably won't get any polls that will reflect how much of a change it causes. So I think there's a chance Clinton outperforms the polls we have now.



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SegataSanshiro on 06 November 2016

I'm not a fan of either but I do know if Trump wins we will be watering our crops with Gatorade because it has what plants crave. Idioacracy will become a full documentary by that point. If I had to pick and I don't want to,I'd rather see the she devil win and willing to bet she sneaks in in popular vote as well as electoral.



Azuren on 06 November 2016
Soundwave said:
PwerlvlAmy said:

Its just a systel to determine who the elites want into power really.  They determine who the next president is,not the people

People determine who gets into power. If Republicans lose this year, it will be because their candidate was a moron who insulted Hispanics the first day of his candidacy and has consistently alienated women (the no.1 voting block) throughout his campaign. 

It's not a "conspiracy", its basic demographics and math, something that eludes people on the right for whatever reason. 

No they don't, the Electoral College does. That's why Gore lost in 2000.



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Azuren on 06 November 2016

After reading what Trump wants to do with Healthcare, I will at least not be as devastated as if Hillary were to rise to power. Breaking down state border restrictions on healthcare and removing the "You have to have healthcare or we will fine you" Obamacare bullshit is enough to sate me.



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SanAndreasX on 06 November 2016
Normchacho said:
I think it's actually more likely to go the other way if Clinton doesn't win both. She is doing well in States she's still probably going to lose like Texas.

Though realistically she's probably going to win both.

If HRC did manage to win Texas, that would be a massive "OH SHIT" moment for the GOP. Texas is the only large state that is reliably Republican. They would be finished as far as the White House is concerned unless they did some serious introspection.



NobleTeam360 on 06 November 2016

Prediction: He won't win neither.



bunchanumbers on 06 November 2016

Nah. won't happen. And even if it did, GOP can't do squat about it. Al Gore lost because of the electoral college. People wanted to keep state governments to keep their power so this is the effect.



AsGryffynn on 06 November 2016
vivster said:
spurgeonryan said:
Electoral vote.. Never understood how most of the country could vote yes, but you still lose to this mysterious electoral vote.

It's the greatest democracy on earth.

Said no one ever...