Prediction: Trump Wins Popular Vote, but Clinton Wins Electoral Vote

[Veknoid_Outcast]

Mr.GameCrazy said:

Veknoid_Outcast said:

No it is statistically much more likely for Clinton to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college than the other way around.

Nationally she is polling about 4% ahead of Trump, but state polls in the so-called Rust Belt are tightening, meaning Trump could squeak by in Ohio and claim 270+ electoral votes but lose the popular vote by a few percentage points. According to polling aggregate site 538 there's about a 12 percent chance of this happening. The odds of your scenario coming to pass are less than 1 out of 100.

Thanks for letting me know. 

No problem! Lots of cool analyses on 538 if you ever want to read more about election trends and data.