If the S launched in September then maybe it could of done 500K. New hardware always have an initial rush of sales from excitement and WoM. But the S launched this month......A full month at that. So i expect it to be flat from August or a little bit up. I doubt it can sustain sales that long for it to sell 500K.

I believe MS launched the S this early to get it away from neo and get as much sales as possible before it released.

I just have a sneaking feeling that we may see an upturn in sales of PS4s when No Man's Sky releases. There's something about watching this game being played that's so captivating people will eventually feel they'll want a copy to play. This thing could go viral. Another Minecrafts? Probably not, but certainly something similar.

You mean upturn for August NPD or just in general? If the former, it won't change the out come XB1 has this month. 2 months worth of pre-orders, plus an entire month of sales, is damn near impossible to beat at this point. 

No, the XB1 has this month in the bag barring something extraordinary happening. I'm talking about a general upturn in sales overall. I think this game could he huge. Because some things are very rare, people go crazy when someone finds a ruin for instance and they'll be rarer things than that. It's already building a huge fanbase before it launches.

I don't think he's comparing to the XB1, just an increase in PS4 sales. 

Yeah, that's what I meant. NMS is special in a way I haven't seen for many years.

The 360 slim helped push July 2010's weekly average to 110,875 from June's 90,340, or an increase of 22.7% in a month where the average weekly drop is around 15%, and that was with the slim selling in its 4th to 8th week. September already see's an increase in the weekly average from August, and with the 500GB and 1TB's having a whole 5 weeks after their first week, I can see it selling 500k even if the XB1 sells a conservative 300k in August.

Well then I definitely agree with the sentiment.

I kinda knew this would be your answer, but there is a big difference.

When Microsoft launched the 360 Slim was an unexpect annunce, they literally annunced it the SAME DAY they launched the slim.

So make sense if people waited a bit for buy it, for the simple fact some people were not prepare for this.

With XBO is totally difference. First, even before the annunce, there were lot of rumors about a Slim version, or even because the "most expert" surely rememb what's happened in 2010, and they kinda expect a slim model.

Second, the most important, they annunced the slim two months ago... with all pre orders from June/July, or even people who don't pre ordered XBO S but still they gonna buy it in August.

That's why you can't expect the same increase in the second month as what's happen with the 360.

A PS3 comparation is way better:

492,000 (September 2009) -------> 321,000 (October 2009) = 35% MOM drop; or 19% weekly sales drop.

And PS3 slim released two weeks after the official annunce, while XBO will release two month after the official annunce... It is true, September is a better month than August in term of weekly sales, and has one more week, but forget XBO to be up in weekly sales.

It will probabily be about flat August to September.

The 360 S was out for 3 weeks in the June NPD. 3 weeks is plenty of time for news to spread and even then sales went up a crazy amount in the following 4 weeks after that.

The only model that has been prordered a bunch was the 2TB model, which is a limited launch. The mass market $299 and the less so $349 bundles only just recently got official release dates, and the type of consumers to buy a $299 console aren't going to preorder it, but see it in a store or be told by a friend about it and buy it. Which is kinda how it happened with the 360 S since sales for it picked up after word got out about it and it had a low price ($299 as well).

Actually, bringing up PS3 slim, it is technically closer to the XB1 S because the PS3 slim went on sale at some US stores in the last 5 days of the August NPD which caused a huge spike in sales for August that then carried into September with the official release. (First week of the "official" slim launch saw sales increase 300% week over week http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/94607-SCEA-PS3-Slim-Boosts-Hardware-Sales-300)

Looking at how the 360 S and PS3 slim performed, I would still say the XB1 S has a good chance at cracking 500k in September. Current XB1 owners "upgrading" and it being a cheap 4K media player should have a huge pull. 5 full weeks of the actual slim models being out and olny selling ~300k-350k would be bad. 350k in September is something the PS4 has already done twice so far.