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Forums - Sales - VGChartz Hardware Sales Update (16th July 2016)

spurgeonryan said:

No one ia posting, all the newbs have no idea what an update is.

What does ia mean? VGChartz update lingo? Ia it a typo?



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

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Farsala said:
Mummelmann said:
^So, 1 million overtracked again? That means probably about 5.5 million or so sold this year, making the 20 million CY even more unlikely. People have really been overestimating the PS4, I think many expect it to sell really great just because the competition is doing poorly, the fact that it isn't selling faster with said poor competition is actually cause for some worry, it would seem that consoles overall have lost some of their zest.
It was inevitable though, there were always quite a few fringe customers buying consoles, these are now situated in convenience gaming markets, for the most part.

?

Shipments are up yoy and that is all that matters when compared to the 17.7m shipments last year.

Even if they were down yoy so far, it hardly matters in the grand scheme due to how much the holidays contribute to the total.


Either way I think the 20m requires another price cut.

Yeah, something needs to happen for 20 million to become reality, but quite a few users berated me for not supporting the idea of 20 million sales in 2016, even in 2015. Again, the notion put forward seems to be that the competition is moving so slowly that the PS4 is bound to have amazing sales.
That said, even without a 20 million selling year in its entire cycle (an idea I've actually suggested a long time ago), it should still sell a good amount lifetime. I also still believe it won't catch the PS1 and that the PS3 is a much more realistic target to beat lifetime, especially given the PS3's long life, which the PS4 won't have, by all appearances, the 7th gen was very long and we likely won't see one as long as that again.



Gongrats to the one guy on Japan who bought the last xbox360 he deserve a metal great catch VG great catch. Confirm that was not a tourist there!

Congrats to America that no buy Vita so Sony get remember to price drop that thing on 100$ so i buy one and use it like a cheap tablet :)



 

 

Jranation said:
Oh wow! The 3DS is still topping up XONE.

And yet it's still considered dead while I'm being told the X1 is doing totally fine! xD



唯一無二のRolStoppableに認められた、VGCの任天堂ファミリーの正式メンバーです。光栄に思います。

How do you track one single 360 sold on a whole country? Also, the 3DS still sells great.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

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Mummelmann said:
^So, 1 million overtracked again? That means probably about 5.5 million or so sold this year, making the 20 million CY even more unlikely. People have really been overestimating the PS4, I think many expect it to sell really great just because the competition is doing poorly, the fact that it isn't selling faster with said poor competition is actually cause for some worry, it would seem that consoles overall have lost some of their zest.
It was inevitable though, there were always quite a few fringe customers buying consoles, these are now situated in convenience gaming markets, for the most part.

Perhaps people berated you because from the beggining you were underestimating PS4 sales?

And from what I know Sony have beated all their shipments expectations so far. So there would be more reason to believe they will for 20M than not. How many of the previous expected shipments did you disagree from PS4 before?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Mummelmann said:
^So, 1 million overtracked again? That means probably about 5.5 million or so sold this year, making the 20 million CY even more unlikely. People have really been overestimating the PS4, I think many expect it to sell really great just because the competition is doing poorly, the fact that it isn't selling faster with said poor competition is actually cause for some worry, it would seem that consoles overall have lost some of their zest.
It was inevitable though, there were always quite a few fringe customers buying consoles, these are now situated in convenience gaming markets, for the most part.

Perhaps people berated you because from the beggining you were underestimating PS4 sales?

And from what I know Sony have beated all their shipments expectations so far. So there would be more reason to believe they will for 20M than not. How many of the previous expected shipments did you disagree from PS4 before?

It needs to be up over 20% yoy to beat 20 million for the CY, that's not happening at this rate, 20% is also more than normal growth for a third year for a home console so the growth itself might still be perfectly healthy.

I did underestimate the PS4 a little bit from the beginning, but I've been a lot closer than most and I was always very skeptical of the 20 million CY crowd, stating that it would take some actual effort to get there, 20 million and more is not something you coast into unless it's a phenomenon like the Wii and DS or a behemoth monopoly machine like the PS2. I think there are still people who believe it will beat the PS2 in lifetime sales, a notion that was utterly ridiculous from the very start.

We had the PS4 severely overtracked for Q1 this year, I think it was around 1 million overtracked over a period of only 3 months, so while the lifetime tracking was within acceptable margins, we have proven to be grossly inaccurate with the tracking so far in 2016, there's not much reason to think we've improved, especially seeing as how we already see that we have the PS4 1 million more in sellthrough around june 22 (or thereabouts) than they had actually officially shipped. Given that this is a slower time of the year; that means that the tracking is even less precise.

There's no sense in arguing whether or not our tracking has been out of whack lately; it has and has already been discussed for months.



Mummelmann said:
DonFerrari said:

Perhaps people berated you because from the beggining you were underestimating PS4 sales?

And from what I know Sony have beated all their shipments expectations so far. So there would be more reason to believe they will for 20M than not. How many of the previous expected shipments did you disagree from PS4 before?

It needs to be up over 20% yoy to beat 20 million for the CY, that's not happening at this rate, 20% is also more than normal growth for a third year for a home console so the growth itself might still be perfectly healthy.

I did underestimate the PS4 a little bit from the beginning, but I've been a lot closer than most and I was always very skeptical of the 20 million CY crowd, stating that it would take some actual effort to get there, 20 million and more is not something you coast into unless it's a phenomenon like the Wii and DS or a behemoth monopoly machine like the PS2. I think there are still people who believe it will beat the PS2 in lifetime sales, a notion that was utterly ridiculous from the very start.

We had the PS4 severely overtracked for Q1 this year, I think it was around 1 million overtracked over a period of only 3 months, so while the lifetime tracking was within acceptable margins, we have proven to be grossly inaccurate with the tracking so far in 2016, there's not much reason to think we've improved, especially seeing as how we already see that we have the PS4 1 million more in sellthrough around june 22 (or thereabouts) than they had actually officially shipped. Given that this is a slower time of the year; that means that the tracking is even less precise.

There's no sense in arguing whether or not our tracking has been out of whack lately; it has and has already been discussed for months.

Very little people keep on thinking it will top PS2 in the end (although it have been ahead so far).

And yes, Sony will have to do something for it to top 20M. But we expect PS4Neo, PS4Slim and PSVR this year and possibly a price cut, so it isn't totally impossible to see 20M CY.

Our PS4 tracking have been totally of since the beggining, we have seen cases of more than 1M undertracking in less than 3 months outside of Holidays during the launch.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

This is a horrible gen in terms of sales, down significantly. PS4 will be up a bit over the PS3, but the XB1 and especially the Wii U will be seeing large declines. The XB1 will probably cap out at 40 million, with the Wii U at 15 million. That means this gen combined between all three platforms (PS4, XB1, Wii U) may not even pass the PS2. Also as many noted, the PS4 is overtracked by over a million sales.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Mummelmann said:
Farsala said:

?

Shipments are up yoy and that is all that matters when compared to the 17.7m shipments last year.

Even if they were down yoy so far, it hardly matters in the grand scheme due to how much the holidays contribute to the total.


Either way I think the 20m requires another price cut.

Yeah, something needs to happen for 20 million to become reality, but quite a few users berated me for not supporting the idea of 20 million sales in 2016, even in 2015. Again, the notion put forward seems to be that the competition is moving so slowly that the PS4 is bound to have amazing sales.
That said, even without a 20 million selling year in its entire cycle (an idea I've actually suggested a long time ago), it should still sell a good amount lifetime. I also still believe it won't catch the PS1 and that the PS3 is a much more realistic target to beat lifetime, especially given the PS3's long life, which the PS4 won't have, by all appearances, the 7th gen was very long and we likely won't see one as long as that again.

When do you expect the PS5 to launch? People like to talk about the PS3's long life, but it was only half a year longer than the PS2's life (1 year longer if you use NA launch as the basis.)

 

If you expect the PS5 to launch in 2018, you are predicting that the PS4 will have the shortest lifespan of any PS console to date. This just seems improbable to me, with the Neo essentially extending the length of this gen by two years if Sony wants to.