VGChartz Hardware Sales Update (16th July 2016)

[DonFerrari]

Mummelmann said:

DonFerrari said:

Perhaps people berated you because from the beggining you were underestimating PS4 sales?

And from what I know Sony have beated all their shipments expectations so far. So there would be more reason to believe they will for 20M than not. How many of the previous expected shipments did you disagree from PS4 before?

It needs to be up over 20% yoy to beat 20 million for the CY, that's not happening at this rate, 20% is also more than normal growth for a third year for a home console so the growth itself might still be perfectly healthy.

I did underestimate the PS4 a little bit from the beginning, but I've been a lot closer than most and I was always very skeptical of the 20 million CY crowd, stating that it would take some actual effort to get there, 20 million and more is not something you coast into unless it's a phenomenon like the Wii and DS or a behemoth monopoly machine like the PS2. I think there are still people who believe it will beat the PS2 in lifetime sales, a notion that was utterly ridiculous from the very start.

We had the PS4 severely overtracked for Q1 this year, I think it was around 1 million overtracked over a period of only 3 months, so while the lifetime tracking was within acceptable margins, we have proven to be grossly inaccurate with the tracking so far in 2016, there's not much reason to think we've improved, especially seeing as how we already see that we have the PS4 1 million more in sellthrough around june 22 (or thereabouts) than they had actually officially shipped. Given that this is a slower time of the year; that means that the tracking is even less precise.

There's no sense in arguing whether or not our tracking has been out of whack lately; it has and has already been discussed for months.

Very little people keep on thinking it will top PS2 in the end (although it have been ahead so far).

And yes, Sony will have to do something for it to top 20M. But we expect PS4Neo, PS4Slim and PSVR this year and possibly a price cut, so it isn't totally impossible to see 20M CY.

Our PS4 tracking have been totally of since the beggining, we have seen cases of more than 1M undertracking in less than 3 months outside of Holidays during the launch.