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Mummelmann on 22 July 2016
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DonFerrari said:
Mummelmann said:
^So, 1 million overtracked again? That means probably about 5.5 million or so sold this year, making the 20 million CY even more unlikely. People have really been overestimating the PS4, I think many expect it to sell really great just because the competition is doing poorly, the fact that it isn't selling faster with said poor competition is actually cause for some worry, it would seem that consoles overall have lost some of their zest.
It was inevitable though, there were always quite a few fringe customers buying consoles, these are now situated in convenience gaming markets, for the most part.

Perhaps people berated you because from the beggining you were underestimating PS4 sales?

And from what I know Sony have beated all their shipments expectations so far. So there would be more reason to believe they will for 20M than not. How many of the previous expected shipments did you disagree from PS4 before?

It needs to be up over 20% yoy to beat 20 million for the CY, that's not happening at this rate, 20% is also more than normal growth for a third year for a home console so the growth itself might still be perfectly healthy.

I did underestimate the PS4 a little bit from the beginning, but I've been a lot closer than most and I was always very skeptical of the 20 million CY crowd, stating that it would take some actual effort to get there, 20 million and more is not something you coast into unless it's a phenomenon like the Wii and DS or a behemoth monopoly machine like the PS2. I think there are still people who believe it will beat the PS2 in lifetime sales, a notion that was utterly ridiculous from the very start.

We had the PS4 severely overtracked for Q1 this year, I think it was around 1 million overtracked over a period of only 3 months, so while the lifetime tracking was within acceptable margins, we have proven to be grossly inaccurate with the tracking so far in 2016, there's not much reason to think we've improved, especially seeing as how we already see that we have the PS4 1 million more in sellthrough around june 22 (or thereabouts) than they had actually officially shipped. Given that this is a slower time of the year; that means that the tracking is even less precise.

There's no sense in arguing whether or not our tracking has been out of whack lately; it has and has already been discussed for months.