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Forums - Politics Discussion - What happens when Putin is gone?

Sharu said:
m0ney said:

I want to clarify something to the brainwashed people - there is no discrimination in Baltics. Any russian who was born here and learned our language can get citizenship if the want it. And many of them do and then they go and vote for their russian party in elections. Why do you think the mayor of our capital Riga is a russian who by the way regularly shows disrespect to Latvia/Latvians? Who do you think voted for his party? I will give you a hint - it wasnt Latvians who voted for his party. Now you see how disinformed and brainwashed you were about the 'poor non-citizens' and their 'discrimination' and 'problems'? Its the Latvians you should feel sorry for for having to put up with unloyal russians and their politicians in our own country.

On the so called 'discrimination' in Latvia - it was always sound fishy to me tbh. And now even more. 25 years without USSR. Russians in Latvia could leave a country or adapt to its conditions. Those who stayed there, but didn't want to adapt to the new situation... Just looks strange.

It's not practical for them. By not having a Latvian citizenship, it's easier for them to enter Russia and by being Russian, they are more tied to Russia then the rest of EU. It's a calculated choice that results in a weird situation.



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Scisca said:

You guys do have a crazy situation there. Russians opt not to have citizenship, cause this way they may enter Russia, Belarus and some other countries without a visa, while should they become Latvians, they'd need to apply and pay for a visa. And still, the Russian party wins all elections, just that they can never enter into a coalition Having over a quarter of your population be Russian is a huge problem if you ask me, that's why I'm so shocked you feel so secure. I'm happy there are next to no Russians in my country, one less problem. I don't envy you.

It is not nearly as bad as it seems on paper. Many russians have integrated, especially the younger generations, and speak our language and are loyal to Latvia. We had a referendum a few years ago on Russian becoming the second official language in Latvia, of course this referendum failed badly, there is no way in hell Russian will ever become second language here, but around 200k russians voted yes, it is around 10% of population, so as you see it is not nearly 30% of population that is somewhat against Latvia but just 10% which is still a lot though.



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Ruler said:
Scisca said:

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.

Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.

And you think you have democracy in poland? These new media laws are heavily cutting freedom of speech.

Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.

The only democracies are japan and finland


Just one this, more country have democracies like switzerland, norway, sweden, etc there is at least 10-15 democracy..

if interessed : http://www.jolpress.com/classement-pays-scandinaves-democratiques-yemen-democracy-ranking-article-823755.html



antigin said:
-What happens when Putin is gone?

New president will happen. Too early to say who will be next, but most likely it will be his protege. Two, 1.5 years before the end of his fourth presidential term he will begin to promote some guy. His bodyguard, or defense minister, or someone else from his administration. CRAZY, but IF he will die, I think Shoigu immediately will become the president (temporarily, until reelections), less likely current vice-president.

I think Lavrov would make a nice Russian president, but I think we will see President Medvedev again... 

m0ney said:
Scisca said:

EU doesn't mean jack shit. NATO? The protection of the Baltic States is a very sensitive and difficult topic.

Sorry but you don't get it, Russia will never attack a NATO country.

Exactly... 

derpysquirtle64 said:
Scisca said:

I think you don't get it, that it's common knowledge that NATO has absolutely no way to defend the Baltic Countries in case of an attack. If Russia attacked you, all NATO could do is impose sanctions. After all, do you even know the wording of art. 5 of the NATO Treaty? It's not as strickt as many believe and by no means does it tell other NATO members to join the war. If you were attacked by Russia, no European country (except for Poland) would give a shit. All they would care about would be securing a steady flow of oil, gas and other resources from the East and to secure their business' in the conquered areas. USA? That would be a bit tougher, they would have to calculate many variables. Is it worth it to start a war with Russia over some tiny countries that were part of Russia less than 25 year ago? What impact would it have for USA in the Pacific? In Korea and Japan? In the Middle East? How much would it cost? Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent? Can you imagine that? Helping you would depend solely on the result of a calculation of costs for America - and in my opinion, you'd be sacrificed just like Crimea and Donbas. Hopefully, at least Poland could secure a bit of Lithuania - the part that's historically Polish. Wouldn't want it falling to Russian hands.

Don't forget that Ukraine had American and British guarantees as well. I know these documents had different headlines, but the fact stands. You are at the mercy of Russia, you are the next target on their list and your allies have no means of helping you. I honestly have no idea how you can be this arrogantly confident. Russia does what it wants to do. It has always been this way.

Our legendary President Lech Kaczyński said years ago: "First it's Georgia, after that will come Ukraine, after Ukraine - the Baltics, and after the Baltics, possibly, Poland". And what happened? Russia subdued Georgia. Then it invaded Ukraine. Now everybody is eyeing the Baltics...

The Baltics invasion is almost 100% not gonna happen if NATO will stop its expansion to the East. Otherwise, maybe

Agreed... Bears don't attack if you don't poke their eyes... 

m0ney said:
Scisca said:

Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent?

We already have American (NATO) troops here for a while and currently a fully functional NATO base is being actively planned in Baltics. Russia is bear. NATO is Optimus Prime. You do the math :)

More like Russia is bear and NATO is a wolf pack... 

CaptainExplosion said:
d21lewis said:
He'll be replaced by the ruthless dictator, Phartin. Everyone knows Phartin is worse that Putin!

And after all of the Putin and Phartin, the real shit happens. God help us all.

What, they get a new dictator who's crazy and stupid enough that he's gonna get them all blown up?

I doubt Russians will pride themselves on bringing doomsday... 

Ruler said:
Scisca said:

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.

Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.

And you think you have democracy in poland? These new media laws are heavily cutting freedom of speech.

Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.

The only democracies are japan and finland

While it's true Poland has it's own flavor of repression, now you're stretching it... 

Sharu said:
Guys, you're overestimating the power of one guy. Putin couldn't do anything if he was totally alone. He's a part of some team. And I sure, that that team has possible scenarios in the case of something bad happens to Putin.

Read Tolstoy. Single person means nothing. Masses and hystory is what decides.

While true, he probably is at the helm anyways... 



Scisca said:

 

That was a nice wall of verbal mastur... (Can I say this word here? Won't risk it...)

Listen, if these delusions of grandeur help you sleep at night, go right on, my dear. I'll believe it when I see it. And I doubt I'll see it. Nobody's "flocking" to you



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Psychotic said:
Scisca said:

 

That was a nice wall of verbal mastur... (Can I say this word here? Won't risk it...)

Listen, if these delusions of grandeur help you sleep at night, go right on, my dear. I'll believe it when I see it. And I doubt I'll see it. Nobody's "flocking" to you

Keep on laughing, you'll see in 10 years, let alone 20. I'm just gonna give you a few more things to think about.

Poland has been the fastest developing country in the EU over the last decade (only Slovakia manages to keep our pace). We are still going strong with 3.8% this year. Do you honestly think, that this means nothing? That such a surge of one of the largest countries won't cause a switch in the power rank sooner or later? That would be very, very naive of you.

Acording to SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) in 2015 Poland's military spendings ranked us 20th in the World. Izrael is 15th, Turkey is 16th. We spend over 3 times more than Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia combined. We have joined the world's elite and that budget is still considered unacceptably low by us and it is being increased yearly, we are about to invest very heavily in our army in the upcoming years. Guess you never realised that?

You think the region isn't flocking to us? Well...

A week ago there was a meeting of V4 Ministers of Defence, where they worked out a unified stance for the upcoming NATO summit. Who do you think is the main force behind all of this? Who is interested the most in this sudden resurgence of the V4, which has been dead for years? And whose voice sounds the laudest there? If you refuse to accept that this increased cooperation is our doing and is an important part of our policy that we will try to develop even more, then you are lying to yourself.

Last week the first mechanised company of Polish troops left for the Baltic countries, where it will be stationing from now:
http://www.defence24.com/327709,polish-soldiers-will-be-deployed-to-baltic-republics

Today the Prime Minister of Estonia is in Poland talking about military and economical cooperation. We are cooperating in the contruction of Via Baltica and Rail Baltica - a highway and fast railway that are meant to finally integrate Poland and Baltic countries. This is similar to the Via Carpatia we're pushing for, going from Bulgaria, through Romania, Slovakia and Eastern Poland.

You know how Russia keeps influence in Central Europe using Gasprom to blackmail countries with steep gas prices or even halting gas transfer? Poland has purchased oil and gas rigs in Norway and we are starting the construction of the Baltic Pipe from Denmark to transport that gas to Poland, so that we're no longer dependant on the overpriced Russian gas. Moreover, our Gasport in Świnoujście will be operational any day now (it starts this month), allowing us to import gas in tankers from Middle East and USA. Soon we'll be able to import 20 billion cubic meters of gas from outside of Russia.  Our current import is 10 bil per year, so we will be 100% independent from Russia and we'll be able to export the extra gas. The pipes to Ukraine are pretty much a done deal at this point (see what we're doing here?), till 2020 we will have gaspipes built to Czech Rep, Slovakia, Lithuania all the way to Croatia as well, read for yourself:
http://www.energetyka24.com/372044,polska-gazowym-hubem-europy-srodkowej-irytacja-zwolennikow-nord-stream-2

Our oil terminal in Gdańsk started operations in April of this year - yet another step to become independent from Russian resources and to compete in the region. You are Czech, do you know that rafineries in your country belong to us? And that as we speak Poland is fighting with Russia over which oil you'll be tanking? From Russia or Saudi Arabia via Gdańsk? Just read:
http://www.energetyka24.com/374257,rosnieft-bedzie-walczyc-o-czeski-rynek-saudyjska-rozgrywka-orlenu

 

These are no dreams or verbal mastur... These are cold hard facts, this is all happening. We are building up our army. Our soldiers are already stationing in the Baltics. We want to be able to defend ourselves (and in the future - the region) from Russia on our own, we know USA wants to leave the region and concentrate on the Pacific, we want to be ready for that. We are becoming independent from Russian gas and oil and capable of supporting other countries in the region, thus making it impossible for Russia to influence countries in the region by their gas blackmail. We are investing in infrastructure meant to integrate the region. We are pushing for the V4 cooperation to develop.

You may laugh all you want sweetheart, it won't change a thing. This is our answer to the problems of the region, we want to be the leaders of Central Europe, we want to be able to be the answer to any turmoil that may happen should Putin die and Russia get even crazier, or should the new USA President be foolish enough to draw US troops from Central Europe. I see no reason why we shouldn't aspire to that role. We have always been the other main force in the region, it's only natural for us. When you look at history, the region was at its best when Poland was more powerful than Russia and could keep their influence away.

We are stepping up, we just need some more time...



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Scisca said:

...

Yeah, I'm certainly going to remember this in 10-20 years and come back to tell you how wrong you were... right....

Listen, I already told you: We're right next to you and I haven't heard anything about Poland in months. If you were a factor in anything important, something would've got into the news.

If Russia attacked Europe, the Baltic states would be overrun literally in days. There is no point for the OP to be concerned about it, it is beyond his control. The Czech Republic would be able to protect about 10% of its territory for about two weeks, the end. Currently, the Czech Republic is ranked on Global Firepower as the 32nd most powerful military in the world. Poland is 18th, being about twice as powerful, with more hardware, but lagging behind technologically.

Compared to Russia, you are absolutely outmatched in every category. 3 times less men fit for service is fine, but... 5x less trained soldiers, 10x less military aircraft (and that's counting your light transport helicopters against their heavily armed Hinds) and absolutelly technologically outclassed at that (all your fighters are from the 70s), 15 times (!!!) less tanks and 10 times less armored land vehicles, and again, how many of your Leopard 2 tanks would be needed to take out one Russian T-90? You would last a month, maybe? Two months? And that's if you wouldn't surrender immediately.

Face it, home boy, you would have difficuly beating even us, for Christ's sake, if you think you have anything on Russia, you are seriously misguided. You remind me of how the North Korean public actually believes that they could challenge the United States.

I hate Russia as much as the next guy, but let's be reasonable, okay? There is no point in pretending.



Psychotic said:
Scisca said:

...

Yeah, I'm certainly going to remember this in 10-20 years and come back to tell you how wrong you were... right....

Listen, I already told you: We're right next to you and I haven't heard anything about Poland in months. If you were a factor in anything important, something would've got into the news.

If Russia attacked Europe, the Baltic states would be overrun literally in days. There is no point for the OP to be concerned about it, it is beyond his control. The Czech Republic would be able to protect about 10% of its territory for about two weeks, the end. Currently, the Czech Republic is ranked on Global Firepower as the 32nd most powerful military in the world. Poland is 18th, being about twice as powerful, with more hardware, but lagging behind technologically.

Compared to Russia, you are absolutely outmatched in every category. 3 times less men fit for service is fine, but... 5x less trained soldiers, 10x less military aircraft (and that's counting your light transport helicopters against their heavily armed Hinds) and absolutelly technologically outclassed at that (all your fighters are from the 70s), 15 times (!!!) less tanks and 10 times less armored land vehicles, and again, how many of your Leopard 2 tanks would be needed to take out one Russian T-90? You would last a month, maybe? Two months? And that's if you wouldn't surrender immediately.

Face it, home boy, you would have difficuly beating even us, for Christ's sake, if you think you have anything on Russia, you are seriously misguided. You remind me of how the North Korean public actually believes that they could challenge the United States.

I hate Russia as much as the next guy, but let's be reasonable, okay? There is no point in pretending.

It's a pity you ignore all of my arguments, I'd actually love to hear what Czechs think about these moves other than pure denial.

Let me repeat - your ignorance changes nothing. Did you know your refineries were Polish? No. Does it change the fact that they are ours? No! Did you know about the game we're playing with Russia over your whole oil market? No. Does it change the fact that we are doing it? No! Did you know we've deployed our first company of troops in the Baltics? No. Does it change the fact that they are there? No! This stuff is happening, doesn't matter if you hear about it (though it's a pity the Czechs don't take notice of this) or not. But now that I've told you about it, I'd like to hear what you think about this new knowledge you've gained.

Baltic States would be overrun in 60 hours - NATO estimates That's why we've sent troops there That's why the NATO summit in Warsaw in a couple of day will most probably decide to send US troops there as well. We need to act.

I'm affraid you have some outdated info on Polish army. All our fighters come from the 70s? Dayum, these squadrons of state-of-the-art F16s (more modern than those used by Israel) sure got outdated fast! On top of that our Special Forces GROM are second to none - Delta Force, Sayeret Matkal, SAS, SEALs, you name them, GROM is right there on par with them (they were even included in Medal of Honour: Warfighter ). We are investing big money in our army now. We're buying new squadrons of helicopters (worth over 3 bil euro - almost as much as Czech Rep, Slovakia and Hungary spend on their whole military per year combined - we're getting between 50 to 80 new Hind class choppers), we're buying new anti-rocket systems, getting new tanks (including our own design of a stealth tank - check out the PL-01, will enter production in 2018) increasing the army size, we're creating the Territorial Defence... I think we're doing quite a lot.

Look. I know we are outmatched. They have the second army in the world - only USA can bully them around on a global scale (that's why we're trying to get as many Americans here as we can). The thing is, absolute numbers are meaningless! It doesn't matter how big army Russia has in total, look on the map - they need it to guard half of the bloody globe! They can't throw everything they have at us. They still need to guard Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine and God only know what else. Tanks sitting behind Ural aren't scary. That is a big equaliser, cause we can throw everything we've got at them. Moreover, there is always the defenders advantage and the fact that Russian troops proved to be surprisingly inefficient in Ukraine... To defend you don't need to have as powerful an army as the attacker.

And most importantly - I'm NOT saying "WE'RE THERE", cause I know we're not there yet. I'm saying "WE'RE STEPPING UP". We are in the process, we are taking all the steps necessary to get there soon. Rome wasn't built in a day and if you read what I've provided you with - let me stress this, these are all facts, not wishes - I think that you can get a clear picture of what we're doing. And what the future of the region is shaping up to be. And there will be changes.

You think we'd have trouble conquering Czech Republic. Ok, trouble today - fine. How about in 8 years? Let me remind you, we are 20th in spendings in the World - with a buullet! Czech Rep is 63rd... We spend over 5 times more than you do every year and are hell bent on increasing it. As I've repeated - we need time, we are the underdog, but we are already playing the game. The big question is, how much time will Russia give us.



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Scisca said:

...

Then you let me repeat: The Czechs don't think anything about these moves because we don't *know* anything about these moves. Just for you, I went to the biggest internet news outlet in the Czech Republic - iDNES.cz and I searched for articles about Poland. Quick overview of the results of the first 100 newest articles:

The very 1st article: "EU horrified about the state of human rights in Poland" - that cracked me up.

Followed by: soccer, soccer, tennis, volleyball, Poland planning to demolish WW2 statues of Russian soldiers, Putin threatening Poland, Clinton condemning Poland for being as despotic as Russia, soccer, soccer... OH! There's something! V4 sending troops to the Baltic... ahem... hooray, the 4 countries will *maybe* send a combined total of whopping 600 soldiers! Soccer, soccer, tennis... yeah, nothing else of interest.

To be fair, your special forces are indeed very good. I've had the pleasure of competing against them in a military marksmanship tournament. We defeated the Navy SEALS without a problem, but the Polish... yeah, they whooped our a**es.

And i admit I may have underestimated your air force, I didn't know the F-16s were modernized...

But still, "we're getting there" is wishful thinking. Big words, but I do not see the deeds.

As far as I'm concerned, it would be great if you could challenge Russia, but... I'll really have to see it to believe it. Something like "Russia wanted X but it won't happen because Warsaw said Y".

But I'm sorry for having been too rash and dismissive. I see your case now.