antigin said:
-What happens when Putin is gone?
New president will happen. Too early to say who will be next, but most likely it will be his protege. Two, 1.5 years before the end of his fourth presidential term he will begin to promote some guy. His bodyguard, or defense minister, or someone else from his administration. CRAZY, but IF he will die, I think Shoigu immediately will become the president (temporarily, until reelections), less likely current vice-president. |
I think Lavrov would make a nice Russian president, but I think we will see President Medvedev again...
m0ney said:
Scisca said:
EU doesn't mean jack shit. NATO? The protection of the Baltic States is a very sensitive and difficult topic.
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Sorry but you don't get it, Russia will never attack a NATO country.
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Exactly...
derpysquirtle64 said:
Scisca said:
I think you don't get it, that it's common knowledge that NATO has absolutely no way to defend the Baltic Countries in case of an attack. If Russia attacked you, all NATO could do is impose sanctions. After all, do you even know the wording of art. 5 of the NATO Treaty? It's not as strickt as many believe and by no means does it tell other NATO members to join the war. If you were attacked by Russia, no European country (except for Poland) would give a shit. All they would care about would be securing a steady flow of oil, gas and other resources from the East and to secure their business' in the conquered areas. USA? That would be a bit tougher, they would have to calculate many variables. Is it worth it to start a war with Russia over some tiny countries that were part of Russia less than 25 year ago? What impact would it have for USA in the Pacific? In Korea and Japan? In the Middle East? How much would it cost? Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent? Can you imagine that? Helping you would depend solely on the result of a calculation of costs for America - and in my opinion, you'd be sacrificed just like Crimea and Donbas. Hopefully, at least Poland could secure a bit of Lithuania - the part that's historically Polish. Wouldn't want it falling to Russian hands.
Don't forget that Ukraine had American and British guarantees as well. I know these documents had different headlines, but the fact stands. You are at the mercy of Russia, you are the next target on their list and your allies have no means of helping you. I honestly have no idea how you can be this arrogantly confident. Russia does what it wants to do. It has always been this way.
Our legendary President Lech Kaczyński said years ago: "First it's Georgia, after that will come Ukraine, after Ukraine - the Baltics, and after the Baltics, possibly, Poland". And what happened? Russia subdued Georgia. Then it invaded Ukraine. Now everybody is eyeing the Baltics...
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The Baltics invasion is almost 100% not gonna happen if NATO will stop its expansion to the East. Otherwise, maybe
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Agreed... Bears don't attack if you don't poke their eyes...
m0ney said:
Scisca said:
Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent?
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We already have American (NATO) troops here for a while and currently a fully functional NATO base is being actively planned in Baltics. Russia is bear. NATO is Optimus Prime. You do the math :)
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More like Russia is bear and NATO is a wolf pack...
CaptainExplosion said:
d21lewis said:
He'll be replaced by the ruthless dictator, Phartin. Everyone knows Phartin is worse that Putin!
And after all of the Putin and Phartin, the real shit happens. God help us all. |
What, they get a new dictator who's crazy and stupid enough that he's gonna get them all blown up?
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I doubt Russians will pride themselves on bringing doomsday...
Ruler said:
Scisca said:
You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.
The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.
Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.
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And you think you have democracy in poland? These new media laws are heavily cutting freedom of speech.
Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.
The only democracies are japan and finland
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While it's true Poland has it's own flavor of repression, now you're stretching it...
Sharu said:
Guys, you're overestimating the power of one guy. Putin couldn't do anything if he was totally alone. He's a part of some team. And I sure, that that team has possible scenarios in the case of something bad happens to Putin.
Read Tolstoy. Single person means nothing. Masses and hystory is what decides. |
While true, he probably is at the helm anyways...
