One million more than HD remakes feel alright. Skyward Sword, while not HD, was very beautiful and hyped and it only achieved 4m on a gigantic userbase.

Nope. The series has never hit 10 million. It's unlikely it'll start now. Zelda is more niche than people want to present it as.
I think it'll do about 5 million. Unless the NX ends up being as big as the Wii. In which case it'll maybe get up to about 8 million. Just don't think there are 10 million people who want to play a Zelda game though.

7-8 million sounds more reasonable assuming the game is cross gen and if the NX is a fairly more successful console than the Wii U.

I think the Wii U has insane attach rates compared to pretty much every, if not every, other console ever released for many of it's 1st party titles. WWHD was a remake, as was TPHD, and they both sold are selling millions. Don't even get me started on brand new games like MK8 and Splatoon attach rates. Less people are buying Nintendo devices now days, but of the people that are they are going crazy spending money on software for how small the install base is.

You forgot that GC also had smal instal base and then Wii hapen, PS2 had user base of 155m, than PS3 will end up around 85m. Most important is appeling of product for market not user base of previous product, Wii U was not appeling product at all for anybody exept hard core Nintendo fans.

Only way NX can fail like Wii U is Nintendo again to do all totally wrong, that means again: terrible unvile, terrible and misunderstood marketing, bad name of console, huge HD development problems, value of console and high price compared to competition, weak hardware, gamepad that nobody cared about, weak launch and 1st year games, software drought...all that lead to terrible sales that lead to 3rd party totally abandoned Wii U in first year...IMO Nintendo cant make such a bloody mess again even if they want it. People don't realise that Wii U is such a fail because Nintendo made so many mistakes with it.

And you can bet that after such a huge faile and worst selling Nintendo console ever, Nintendo will work hard to not repeat those mistakes and to have much more successful console. Basically now is totally opposite situation compared when they prepare and launch Wii U, back then after huge Wii success and their best selling console they were too relaxed and they thought Wii U will again sell great and by itself with Wii name on it, but after very painful reality they entered in some kind of panic mode and they know they need to work very hard and to have much better product if they want to have much successful console.

Just 1m more than HD port for brand new Zelda, first HD and true open world Zelda that looks beautiful and that is very hyped, that not only it will be on Wii U but it will be launch title on new platform, doesn't feel alright at all. Even if Zelda U would stay Wii U exclusive it would be 3m+, but dual release on which on one platform will be launch title means around 2m on Wii U and minimum 3m on NX, so that 5m+ minimum.

It make much more sense to assump sales based on what happened with Zelda sales this gen (WW HD and TP HD) than what happened with Zelda sales last gen. But If you already want to assumpta sale based on last gen Zelda sales, it has much better sens to make assumption based on TP sales, because same like Zelda TP, Zelda U will also be launch title on brand new platform and it will be released on old platform too. About Zelda SS sales, SS arrived at end of Wii life when huge part of user base already migrated to other platforms, also requires addon that you need to pay extra if you wanted to play Zelda SS.

First after initial disappointment with Wind Waker "kid" graphics, people wanted realistic Zelda and they were hyped when Nintendo delivered that, also some people ignoring fact that if some game is launch title that has huge impact on sales of that game.

Going by the facts, so no. The userbase on the Wii U is too small to accomplish 10 million. The Wii U as sold around 13 million consoles. And I guess the userbase would be around 30-40% on that console who will buy the new zelda.

NX is not considered for now.

Let's look at this logically. Wii U will still be around 13 million, Wii sold 10 and PS4 sold 12 million it's first year (which are some of the most successful console first year launches), so we can imagine even if it is a huge success and people are just busting down the gates to get it in it's first year when Zelda U will probably be its most successful it will only have an install base of 25 million. Out of that you expect 10 million copies of a game to be sold? While not impossible (literally every single person who owns a console COULD possibly buy it) you see how far of a shot this actually is.

That would be to expect 1 out of every 2.5 people to own this game.... It's not likely at all. With an install base 20 million users more and a game that was hyped to hell (which was the case with TP) it only sold around 8 million. You would be hard pressed to have me believe this game is more anticipated than TP too.

I'm actually thinking I was a bit to optimistic saying 7-8, and 4-6 million will probably be far closer.

Just some perspective.

No, I don't think it'll reach 10 mil units sold. As far as know no Zelda game, or only 1 Zelda game has done that. I don't see it happening in that case.