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Forums - Sony Discussion - Pachter: Lame Games like TLG and Shenmue 3 Won't Sell Many Units

S.T.A.G.E. said:
Areaz32 said:
The Last Guardian might not sell GTAV sales but it will still sell at least 1 million i think. Shenmue 3 is harder to predict... i say maybe 500k Its just not as popular as The Last Guardian but the fanbase is at least as passionate.
But they will sell in Japan which i think Pachter completely forgot about. He doesn't think consoles do anything in Japan even though PS4 has been selling quite alright in Japan, and these games are going to bring in even more Japanese gamers. Just imagine FFXV and all these huge Japanese titles. Persona 5 etc. There is no way that PS4 isn't going to be pretty big in Japan and boost the sales of all of these games by a considerable margin.

See....this right here is why Pachter is right (at least this once). TLG is going to have to push more than a million to justify its lengthy development schedule.

But the previous two games from that creator sold more than a million each without being this famous. The industry has grown 10 fold since then.



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Areaz32 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

See....this right here is why Pachter is right (at least this once). TLG is going to have to push more than a million to justify its lengthy development schedule.

But the previous two games from that creator sold more than a million each without being this famous. The industry has grown 10 fold since then.

Half a million was considered breaking even for games in the PS2 era. Games cost much more to make these days. its probably going to have to sell 3 million copies or more. Much like Final Fantasy XV, TLG has proven to have been a task which demanded outrageous resources. The difference between the two is Final Fantasy is actually a big name and can commercially reach 10 million copies to justify its development time.



S.T.A.G.E. said:
Areaz32 said:

But the previous two games from that creator sold more than a million each without being this famous. The industry has grown 10 fold since then.

Half a million was considered breaking even for games in the PS2 era. Games cost much more to make these days. its probably going to have to sell 3 million copies or more. Much like Final Fantasy XV, TLG has proven to have been a task which demanded outrageous resources. The difference between the two is Final Fantasy is actually a big name and can commercially reach 10 million copies to justify its development time.

Care to explain in details what those "outrageous ressources" are comprised of when it comes to TLG?

The game has been in development for a while, but that doesn't mean the game's cost is as high as you make it to be. Higher than what was needed, sure. They had to pay employees to work on this single game for longer than expected. But that's not what raises the game to "outrageous levels" considering how much programmers are paid for their work. And of course, the marketing hasn't even started yet, so this cannot be it either.

So please, elaborate. 



S.T.A.G.E. said:
Areaz32 said:

But the previous two games from that creator sold more than a million each without being this famous. The industry has grown 10 fold since then.

Half a million was considered breaking even for games in the PS2 era. Games cost much more to make these days. its probably going to have to sell 3 million copies or more. Much like Final Fantasy XV, TLG has proven to have been a task which demanded outrageous resources. The difference between the two is Final Fantasy is actually a big name and can commercially reach 10 million copies to justify its development time.

No TLG didn't have outrageous resource demands. Sony is the publisher so that means approx $33 of the initial $60 is what they make on each sale (from retail) and development of the game is not even touching anything the likes of FFXV. FFXV has been excessive in its development budget.

The last guardian has a relatively small team working on it. I mean its almost 2 times Hellogames in size which is nothing. Sure they may have hired more after 2012 where they moved to PS4 but it is a low budget AAA title compared to games from the Uncharted series or the Killzone series.

FFXV is in the hundreds of millions to develop, i would be surprised if The Last Guardian is anywhere near the 30-35 million mark.



Hynad said:

Care to explain in details what those "outrageous ressources" are comprised of when it comes to TLG?

The game has been in development for a while, but that doesn't mean the game's cost is as high as you make it to be. Higher than what was needed, sure. They had to pay employees to work on this single game for longer than expected. But that's not what raises the game to "outrageous levels" considering how much programmers are paid for their work. And of course, the marketing hasn't even started yet, so this cannot be it either.

So please, elaborate. 

Almost a decade worth of resources and rehiring directors. It costs a certain amount of keep game development in motion (especially for a decade once again). Microsoft has shut down studios for less. Im glad Sony stuck with this one but it wil need to sell. Perhaps not Final Fantasy numbers but it will definitely from my estimation of time and resources have to make more than everyone expects. Im not saying ten millions, but instead of selling 1 million more like three to four million.



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He's right though.



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Areaz32 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Half a million was considered breaking even for games in the PS2 era. Games cost much more to make these days. its probably going to have to sell 3 million copies or more. Much like Final Fantasy XV, TLG has proven to have been a task which demanded outrageous resources. The difference between the two is Final Fantasy is actually a big name and can commercially reach 10 million copies to justify its development time.

No TLG didn't have outrageous resource demands. Sony is the publisher so that means approx $33 of the initial $60 is what they make on each sale (from retail) and development of the game is not even touching anything the likes of FFXV. FFXV has been excessive in its development budget.

The last guardian has a relatively small team working on it. I mean its almost 2 times Hellogames in size which is nothing. Sure they may have hired more after 2012 where they moved to PS4 but it is a low budget AAA title compared to games from the Uncharted series or the Killzone series.

FFXV is in the hundreds of millions to develop, i would be surprised if The Last Guardian is anywhere near the 30-35 million mark.

Im not saying the game will need anywhere near the sales of FFXV but rather it will need to make a profit to justify its similar timeframe. This seems to be Sony Japans largest venture to date and was outpaced by the likes of even knack and that made a profit. It says it reached 1.6 million copies sold over here, so it might be slightly more in reality. Much like Square with Final Fantasy, the ICO franchises seem to be Sony Japan's baby and it seemed worth it to keep it alive rather than trashing it. Regardless, everything has a price. 



Wow! He really has outdone himself this time!



I think Pachter actually manages to state that Shenmue will sell millions. The only question is: how many? Well, there is a niche game for you.



Was the "lame" part necessary though?



                
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