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Forums - Nintendo - Nikkei: Nintendo ceasing Wii U production at the end of the year

RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Looks like analysts are joint in their opinion that VR is a big thing. Also, if you bothered to quote the entire article, you'd see that expected sales range from 8 million to 4 million in the first two years - a 100% difference in sales is a large range so realistically the number could be anywhere from 3 million upwards with what we currently know of it. I don't get the relevance of the Wii U comment...All it shows is how laughably little the WIi U sells. 

Analysts in the same article expect:
- PSVR to sell 1.6 million by the end of the year
- Sieze a 64% market share of VR
- Have a potential market of 53 million customers by 2017

That is incredibly successful, and has brought the Move controller back from the dead. Please enlighten me to what you arbitrarily count "successful" as, because it seems once again to be completely different to what the actual market considers success to be...

I have good reasons to dismiss your reasoning.

1. 15,000 units simply isn't much when you predict the VR market to become a major force.
2. "More preorders than expected" is marketing speech and doesn't tell us anything substantial without knowing what the expectations were. You claim to have vast job experience, yet you fall for some of the most basic PR.
3. You assume that big investments of several companies will automatically result in successfully establishing a new range of products. An easy counterexample to this are electric cars. They had billions upon billions invested in them, but even after decades electric cars hardly sell.
4. I am pretty sure that the Wii U was also in those bestselling lists before it launched.

I mention the Wii U because VR is predicted to sell at a similar rate. From there you should be able to connect the dots: If the Wii U is a failure and VR isn't predicted to sell much better, then VR is not going to be the resounding success you expect it to be.

Now for the analysts' points:

1. 1.6m pales in comparison to Kinect which sold through around four times (shipments were 8m) as much in a shorter timeframe (October launch for PS VR, November for Kinect). 1.6m is also a lower number than what the Wii U achieved in its launch period from November to December 2012. Yes, I've mentioned once again how much the Wii U has sold. Every time the Wii U is brought up, you laugh at how little it has sold, yet at the same time you want to pass off lower numbers as a sign of success.

2. 64% of a small pie.

3. "Potential market" is a fluff statement that is no indication for success. Every PS4 game that gets released will have a potential market of 53 million customers by the end of 2016, but that doesn't mean that they will be successful.

In case you haven't noticed, nobody here agrees with your reasoning. That could either be because we all are wrong or because you are wrong. Every time you fail to formulate a proper argument, you start to talk about your job as if it would add more credibility to the things you say. If you want to continue to do that, verify your credentials to the mod team who can then tell the community that you haven't made it all up. If you can't or don't want to verify your job, stop bringing it up.

I'm not sure what's going on but you seem not to be reading what I've said numerous times:

15,000 units in 10 minutes. 
15,000 units in 10 minutes. 
15,000 units in 10 minutes. 

The fact that you are purposefully ignoring that makes me think you are going to argue this until the end of time for personal reasons rather than anything to do with the industry. 

Here's a nice example: In the same paragraph you compare VR to both Kinect and electric cars. That's rediculous. VR sits in an entirely different market to both products and, to date, VR's situation is entirely different. 

You don't work in the correct industry to know what marketing speech is, and that comment by Palmer Lucky is not marketing speech - that's just a unfounded pessimistic view which ties into you wanting to argue this for personal reasons rather than the evidence infront of you.

VR IS predicted to sell a lot. The fact you are thinking the opposite from the figures you read shows you do not have the knowledge to discuss this.

Nobody here has any experience in marketing or product management so forgive me if I raise issues with what are inexperienced, and sometimes flat out wrong, opinions with a sack full of salt. It's funny that you now want me to verify my credentials, yet you're unwilling to state what experience you have. Do you really think it's unreasonable to imagine someone in the world has more experience on a topic than people who don't work in that industry...?



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RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

I'm not sure what's going on but you seem not to be reading what I've said numerous times:

15,000 units in 10 minutes. 
15,000 units in 10 minutes. 
15,000 units in 10 minutes. 

The fact that you are purposefully ignoring that makes me think you are going to argue this until the end of time for personal reasons rather than anything to do with the industry. 

Here's a nice example: In the same paragraph you compare VR to both Kinect and electric cars. That's rediculous. VR sits in an entirely different market to both products and, to date, VR's situation is entirely different. 

You don't work in the correct industry to know what marketing speech is, and that comment by Palmer Lucky is not marketing speech - that's just a unfounded pessimistic view which ties into you wanting to argue this for personal reasons rather than the evidence infront of you.

VR IS predicted to sell a lot. The fact you are thinking the opposite from the figures you read shows you do not have the knowledge to discuss this.

Nobody here has any experience in marketing or product management so forgive me if I raise issues with what are inexperienced, and sometimes flat out wrong, opinions with a sack full of salt. It's funny that you now want me to verify my credentials, yet you're unwilling to state what experience you have. Do you really think it's unreasonable to imagine someone in the world has more experience on a topic than people who don't work in that industry...?

Do you think that the points you are making become more valid when you bold and underline them?

You don't know in which industry I work, and I am shocked that you believe someone has to work in a specific field in order to be able to identify marketing speech and PR spin.

I'd like to read a sales prediction from you. How much will PS VR have sold by the end of 2016? By the end of 2017? End of 2018? 2019? Give us numbers for the first three years and three months of its availability.

Why am I having to tell you that TIME is a very important figure to consider when looking at sales? Why are you ignoring the speed at which it sold? If the Wii U sold 15 million units in 10 seconds rather than 10 years, wouldn't that be a bit of a game changer? *sigh*

Well I'm going to presume it's the services industry because that seems to be a sensible conclusion from what you've been saying as the only reason you labelled something as marketing is due to pessimism, which, unsurprisingly, wouldn't hold up if you were doing a competitor analyis:

Jim: "How is product A performing? We need to know for end of year financials!"
Rol: "Well they say good, but it's actually bad"
Jim: "...."
Rol: "Y'know, marketing fluff innit"
Jim: "You're fired"

My expertise isn't in predicting sales numbers. Just go with what the paid professionals said in the article you linked (wtf)...



RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

Why am I having to tell you that TIME is a very important figure to consider when looking at sales? Why are you ignoring the speed at which it sold? If the Wii U sold 15 million units in 10 seconds rather than 10 years, wouldn't that be a bit of a game changer? *sigh*

Well I'm going to presume it's the services industry because that seems to be a sensible conclusion from what you've been saying as the only reason you labelled something as marketing is due to pessimism, which, unsurprisingly, wouldn't hold up if you were doing a competitor analyis:

Jim: "How is product A performing? We need to know for end of year financials!"
Rol: "Well they say good, but it's actually bad"
Jim: "...."
Rol: "Y'know, marketing fluff innit"
Jim: "You're fired"

My expertise isn't in predicting sales numbers. Just go with what the paid professionals said in the article you linked (wtf)...

The paid professionals are predicting a sales rate similar to the Wii U.

Your point is? The Wii U is a console that failed in capturing a market. PS VR is expected to capture 64% of the market. Sounds like we have a winner and a loser.

SpokenTruth said:
15,000 in 10 minutes means absolutely nothing to the general market. Those 15,000 went to enthusiasts, not your mom.

Unless you madly think sales will flatline after those 10 minutes, your comment is again more unfounded pessimism rather than anything with substance. 

When we consider the predicted size of the market, looks like they are on the way to fulfilling that prediction.



 

zorg1000 said:

8 million in 2 years doesnt really seem like a lot when u consider that Kinect sold 8 million in 2 months and about 20 million in 2 years.

Like i have said before and you keep ignoring, preorders for these type of products do not necessarily translate to long term sales, all it shows is that they will sell well at launch.

But im not an expert in product management or market positioning so what i say is invalid, right?

VR and Kinect are very different products  - comapring them 1:1 makes no sense, plus you are overlooking the major fact that they are expected to sieze 64% of the market, which is staggering. 

You are ignoring more than the preorders which is a problem - look at:
 a) the success of the preorders
 b) market investment

Well what you say, as shown above, is missing some major points. It's not invalid, but it is flawed. I'm not sure why people here expect to accurately predict the market and have compelling arguments when they have no experience or knowledge in what is a large industry sector.

Preorder numbers really mean nothing other than it will have a strong launch, the people who are preordering PSVR a whopping 7 months before release are not the aversge consumer. Awesome, a bunch of enthusiasts and tech geeks want a PSVR day 1, that however does not gaurantee it will be successful in the long run.

Market investment really doesnt mean anything either, so what if companies have invested billions, are you going to claim that every product with a large investment has been successful?

I would think an expert like yourself would know the preorders and market investment do not gaurantee that a product will be a massive and long term success.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

Your point is? The Wii U is a console that failed in capturing a market. PS VR is expected to capture 64% of the market. Sounds like we have a winner and a loser.

The Wii U captured 100% of its market, so VR is the loser.

No, the Wii U captured a tiny segment of the console market (basic math and far less than what Nintendo expected), whereas PSVR is expected to capture 64% of the VR market.

SpokenTruth said:
ps4tw said:

Unless you madly think sales will flatline after those 10 minutes, your comment is again more unfounded pessimism rather than anything with substance. 

When we consider the predicted size of the market, looks like they are on the way to fulfilling that prediction.

Overinflated hype.

I have a feeling you've invested hence your adamancy.

Overinflated hype based on what exactly? Pessimism isn't an argument. 

zorg1000 said:

Preorder numbers really mean nothing other than it will have a strong launch, the people who are preordering PSVR a whopping 7 months before release are not the aversge consumer. Awesome, a bunch of enthusiasts and tech geeks want a PSVR day 1, that however does not gaurantee it will be successful in the long run.

Market investment really doesnt mean anything either, so what if companies have invested billions, are you going to claim that every product with a large investment has been successful?

I would think an expert like yourself would know the preorders and market investment do not gaurantee that a product will be a massive and long term success.

Ha. Tech companies don't invest billions of dollars with little thought...

Every single possible marker at this moment in time is showing VR is doing well, from presales, to customer feedback. Remember, pessimism isn't an arugment. So, ask yourself this: 

What figures/facts are you looking for? 



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ps4tw said:

PS VR is expected to capture 64% of the market.

When we consider the predicted size of the market, looks like they are on the way to fulfilling that prediction.

Yeah, because these predictions always come close to reality. ;) Microsoft also invested billions in Windows Phone while IDC and Gartner predicted a market share of at least 20% for WindowsPhone and at least 10% for BlackBerry until 2015.

Or this glorious 7th gen console sales prediction:

 

 



RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

No, the Wii U captured a tiny segment of the console market (basic math and far less than what Nintendo expected), whereas PSVR is expected to capture 64% of the VR market.

Look at the games that sell on the PS4+X1 vs. the Wii U. How much did Grand Theft Auto, Battlefield, CoD, Destiny etc. sell on the Wii U? Those three consoles aren't all in the same market. The Wii U has 100% market share.

Look at the original predicitions by Nintendo for Wii U sales. Also you're confusing sales and market positioning.

Conina said:
ps4tw said:

PS VR is expected to capture 64% of the market.

When we consider the predicted size of the market, looks like they are on the way to fulfilling that prediction.

Yeah, because these predictions always come close to reality. ;) Microsoft also invested billions in Windows Phone while IDC and Gartner predicted a market share of at least 20% for WindowsPhone and at least 10% for BlackBerry until 2015.

[snip]

As far as I'm aware, Gartner haven't made any VR predictions, and none that I've quoted. Just because a single analyst made a mistake doesn't mean all analysts are likely to be wrong...



Its weird how split people are on the topic of VR.
Some seem to hate it with a passion, others are really optimistic about it.

Im amoung those optimistic for it...

My reason is the Marketing research, the intrest in owning VR is very high.

"According to the company’s recent survey, 74% of U.S. respondents under 18 years of age indicated that they were “very interested” in virtual reality." - quote SuperData Stephanie Llamas.

The only problem is the price.

I think once it gets down to 300$ (scale of production), the sales will sky rocket.

So far:
Sales & preorder for VR headsets look promissing.

I dont think VR is a fad, that ll just pass at some point, its here to stay (imo) and it ll only grow and grow over time.



We can't really know all that much until a product is readily available (or suffering from shortages) and has actually hit stores. I'm sure those of us who were gaming in the early 2000's still remember when Nokia shipped about 400k million n-gage's in the first two weeks and sold through about 6k combined in the two biggest markets (US and UK).

My point is that company expectation and actual performance are often quite different. I'm not saying VR will crash and burn like n-gage but initial interest and pre-orders are not a surefire way of measuring future success, even the OUYA had a lot of backers from the start.
At the current suggested price points and likely fairly low level of implementation to begin with, there isn't much reason to believe that VR will become a mainstream hit for a few years still, on the PC side there is also the issue of hardware requirements to further complicate matters.
Kinect was less than half the price of the cheapest VR goggles that will be available at first.

 

Edit; isn't this grossly off-topic?!




zorg1000 said:

Preorder numbers really mean nothing other than it will have a strong launch, the people who are preordering PSVR a whopping 7 months before release are not the aversge consumer. Awesome, a bunch of enthusiasts and tech geeks want a PSVR day 1, that however does not gaurantee it will be successful in the long run.

Market investment really doesnt mean anything either, so what if companies have invested billions, are you going to claim that every product with a large investment has been successful?

I would think an expert like yourself would know the preorders and market investment do not gaurantee that a product will be a massive and long term success.

Ha. Tech companies don't invest billions of dollars with little thought...

Every single possible marker at this moment in time is showing VR is doing well, from presales, to customer feedback. Remember, pessimism isn't an arugment. So, ask yourself this: 

What figures/facts are you looking for? 

Ya its quite obvious that they put thought into it, that has nothing to do with what i said.

Pessimism isnt my argument, im actually pretty open-minded about VR, i even said a few posts back that i can imagine it being anywhere from a niche enthusiast product to a casual driven fad to a revolutionary industry standard. The point is that its way too early to to tell how it will do in the long term.

Im not looking for any figures/facts, i simply think you are wrong that VR is the only viable option for Nintendo to take.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.