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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nikkei: Nintendo ceasing Wii U production at the end of the year

ps4tw on 27 March 2016
RolStoppable said:
CGI-Quality said:
^ ^ Whoa! Easy there, guys!

The discussion is going nowhere anyway. If we don't have the right jobs or don't want to reveal them, then nothing we say has any sort of value.

The problem is there is nothing I can say that would change your mind - I've experience in product management and have shown you how VR is selling extremely well and has positive feedback. Apparently, that's just not enough, whereas you have not once shown why VR is simply a passing trend, while having also demonstrated that you don't understand either product management or market placement. But I'm still wrong and you're right. *sigh*

So ask yourself, what would it take for you to change your view?



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zorg1000 on 27 March 2016
ps4tw said:
zorg1000 said:

Nobody is asking you to put hours of research into this, just give an explanation as to why VR is Nintendo's only viable option.

So VR is growing and has positive feedback, that means that its Nintendo's only option?

Facebook, HTC, Sony, Samsung, LG, Microsoft, Apple, Google, and more have VR/AR headsets that recently released or soon to be released ranging from low-end Mobile devices all the way up to high-end PCs. How will Nintendo VR stand out among a dozen or so competitors?

 

Edit: just to be clear, im not necessarily saying Nintendo should release release their own VR headset, just that its extreme hyperbole to say they are doomed without it.

Well the only other option available to Nintendo is to make a console that falls into the trap of being similar to the existing ones, or run the risk of making a product and trying to find the market after it's creation, something it did with the Wii U. It doesn't make sense not to ride the tide, plus why does Nintendo have to make a headset? As I said, all they have to do is make a competent VR ready console. 

Also, it's very telling that neither you or Rol mentioned your day job. Pair of armchair experts I see...

Bolded: isnt that exactly what you are suggesting by saying Nintendo should follow in the footsteps of a dozen other tech companies?

But ya you are right, it makes no sense for Nintendo not to ride the tide, i mean look at how successful Sony was when they rode the motion control wave, Move was a smash hit!!! Or how about when Sony/Microsoft decided to hop on the smartphone wave? Thats doing wonders for both of them. Microsoft also had a big hit with their Zune mp3 players. Copying a successful product does not mean your product will succeed.

But fair point about them not needing to make a headset and just be VR ready, i mistook what you said earlier and thought u were saying they need to make one themselves, thats my bad.

By the way, im a construction worker, not sure what my day job has to do with anything but hope your happy now.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 27 March 2016
ps4tw said:
RolStoppable said:

The discussion is going nowhere anyway. If we don't have the right jobs or don't want to reveal them, then nothing we say has any sort of value.

The problem is there is nothing I can say that would change your mind - I've experience in product management and have shown you how VR is selling extremely well and has positive feedback. Apparently, that's just not enough, whereas you have not once shown why VR is simply a passing trend, while having also demonstrated that you don't understand either product management or market placement. But I'm still wrong and you're right. *sigh*

So ask yourself, what would it take for you to change your view?

You keep talking about your proficiency in these fields yet havent actually backed anything up other than pre-order numbers and guess what? People who pre-order a $400 piece of tech 7 months before it releases are not the typical consumer, they are the diehard enthusiasts and do not accurately reflect how well the product will do in the long run.

Can PSVR be a smash hit that sells well for years to come and become an industry standard? Sure, im open-minded enough to see that scenario playing out but at the same time i can see it being something that is popular for a few years among people who just want to try it out because its something new but ultimately go back to playing in front of a TV. Then i can see a third scenario where it never takes off beyond being a niche product for extreme enthusiasts and tech geeks.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 28 March 2016
ps4tw said:
curl-6 said:

The "different markets" argument is just an excuse used by those don't like that fact that Playstation lost a generation. Let me ask you this: do you consider it "different markets" when Sony wins a console race, or do you just make this one special exception to try to discount the time they lost?

And in the first 3 years of the PS3, Sony's Playstation division lost $4.7 billion. Again, there's a good reason nobody, even Sony, is trying to replicate their PS3 strategy. Nobody wants that kind of "success".

You should be thankful really; if you really do love your PS4 that much, as your username suggests, then you owe its mid-range price and accessibility to developers in part to the lessons learned from PS3's failings. 

All you have demonstrated is you have never actuall professionally worked with releasing products into the open market. If you were to make that "different markets" comment in a marketing department, you'd be laughed out of the building. Some basic proof is the sales of games like Battlefield, Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty between the PS360 and Wii. Come back to reality and stop living in a bubble world created by zealotus Nintendo fans. As a PC gamer I don't care which console sells the most, so don't try to claim bias.

Don't go off topic and talk about the PS3 strategy - if you want to have that conversation, make a thread about it. 

Actually I like the PS4 because it's a last ditch attempt to bring gaming out of the stinking void that was the last generation, as you said due to it's accessbility, but it's utter lack of power is very disappointing.

No offense, but your screen name is 'ps4tw', and your entire posting history is one of bashing Nintendo and praising Sony, to the point of pulling the old "PS3 won the 7th gen because the Wii magically doesn't count" card in 2016, so you really can't blame people for considering you biased.



ps4tw on 28 March 2016
RolStoppable said:
ps4tw said:

The problem is there is nothing I can say that would change your mind - I've experience in product management and have shown you how VR is selling extremely well and has positive feedback. Apparently, that's just not enough, whereas you have not once shown why VR is simply a passing trend, while having also demonstrated that you don't understand either product management or market placement. But I'm still wrong and you're right. *sigh*

So ask yourself, what would it take for you to change your view?

What it would take is that VR turns out to be a really big thing right out of the gate. I just don't see the market being all over peripherals that cost several hundred dollars, and that still excludes the price of a PC or PS4 to use VR.

Since you like experience in the field so much, here are some opinions of analysts:

http://gameranx.com/updates/id/45196/article/ps-vr-to-sell-8-million-in-2-years-sony-to-dominate-rest-of-console-cycle/

8m in two years, that's 4m per year. PS VR is going to be the most popular headset for obvious reasons, so the others won't come close to it. Do you know what else sells about 4m per year? The Wii U.

Analysts don't see VR as something that will be widely successful in the near future. However, Nintendo's NX is going to launch this year. I don't put much stock in what analysts say, but you should, considering how highly you think of job experience. So are the analysts correct that VR still has a long way to go? Or do they just not understand that preorders have been exceeding expectations and maybe that's why they aren't predicting high sales?

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Looks like analysts are joint in their opinion that VR is a big thing. Also, if you bothered to quote the entire article, you'd see that expected sales range from 8 million to 4 million in the first two years - a 100% difference in sales is a large range so realistically the number could be anywhere from 3 million upwards with what we currently know of it. I don't get the relevance of the Wii U comment...All it shows is how laughably little the WIi U sells. 

Analysts in the same article expect:
- PSVR to sell 1.6 million by the end of the year
- Sieze a 64% market share of VR
- Have a potential market of 53 million customers by 2017

That is incredibly successful, and has brought the Move controller back from the dead. Please enlighten me to what you arbitrarily count "successful" as, because it seems once again to be completely different to what the actual market considers success to be...



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ps4tw on 28 March 2016
curl-6 said:
ps4tw said:

All you have demonstrated is you have never actuall professionally worked with releasing products into the open market. If you were to make that "different markets" comment in a marketing department, you'd be laughed out of the building. Some basic proof is the sales of games like Battlefield, Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty between the PS360 and Wii. Come back to reality and stop living in a bubble world created by zealotus Nintendo fans. As a PC gamer I don't care which console sells the most, so don't try to claim bias.

Don't go off topic and talk about the PS3 strategy - if you want to have that conversation, make a thread about it. 

Actually I like the PS4 because it's a last ditch attempt to bring gaming out of the stinking void that was the last generation, as you said due to it's accessbility, but it's utter lack of power is very disappointing.

No offense, but your screen name is 'ps4tw', and your entire posting history is one of bashing Nintendo and praising Sony, to the point of pulling the old "PS3 won the 7th gen because the Wii magically doesn't count" card in 2016, so you really can't blame people for considering you biased.

The fact you go and say "pulling the old "PS3 won the 7th gen because the Wii magically doesn't count" card in 2016,"  shows your understanding of markets is no greater than console forum bashing. What's your day job? It seems to be painfully apparent a lot of people here are armchair experts in market positioning, but have not once actually either studied or worked in an actual business that deals with such things... 



Conina on 28 March 2016
ps4tw said:

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Playstation TV, Wii U, PS Vita and almost any hyped product had great pre-orders: http://wololo.net/2014/06/11/playstation-tv-now-available-for-preorder-already-a-bestseller/

These "better than expected" announcements seem to be in the PR rule books for every product launch.

And of course they always climb to the top of amazon-bestseller lists at first: Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft each have a big enough fan base that their die-hard-fans preorder anything from their favorite brand, just in case... they have enough time to cancel that preorder after they thought it through. And then there are also the scalpers... there is a high probability for every console/handheld/peripheral/iPhone launch that the supply can't meet the demand so the reselling prices go way up for a while. If these prices don't go up, they can just cancel their preorders with no money invested.



zorg1000 on 28 March 2016
ps4tw said:
RolStoppable said:

What it would take is that VR turns out to be a really big thing right out of the gate. I just don't see the market being all over peripherals that cost several hundred dollars, and that still excludes the price of a PC or PS4 to use VR.

Since you like experience in the field so much, here are some opinions of analysts:

http://gameranx.com/updates/id/45196/article/ps-vr-to-sell-8-million-in-2-years-sony-to-dominate-rest-of-console-cycle/

8m in two years, that's 4m per year. PS VR is going to be the most popular headset for obvious reasons, so the others won't come close to it. Do you know what else sells about 4m per year? The Wii U.

Analysts don't see VR as something that will be widely successful in the near future. However, Nintendo's NX is going to launch this year. I don't put much stock in what analysts say, but you should, considering how highly you think of job experience. So are the analysts correct that VR still has a long way to go? Or do they just not understand that preorders have been exceeding expectations and maybe that's why they aren't predicting high sales?

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Looks like analysts are joint in their opinion that VR is a big thing. Also, if you bothered to quote the entire article, you'd see that expected sales range from 8 million to 4 million in the first two years - a 100% difference in sales is a large range so realistically the number could be anywhere from 3 million upwards with what we currently know of it. I don't get the relevance of the Wii U comment...All it shows is how laughably little the WIi U sells. 

Analysts in the same article expect:
- PSVR to sell 1.6 million by the end of the year
- Sieze a 64% market share of VR
- Have a potential market of 53 million customers by 2017

That is incredibly successful, and has brought the Move controller back from the dead. Please enlighten me to what you arbitrarily count "successful" as, because it seems once again to be completely different to what the actual market considers success to be...

8 million in 2 years doesnt really seem like a lot when u consider that Kinect sold 8 million in 2 months and about 20 million in 2 years.

Like i have said before and you keep ignoring, preorders for these type of products do not necessarily translate to long term sales, all it shows is that they will sell well at launch.

But im not an expert in product management or market positioning so what i say is invalid, right?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JRPGfan on 28 March 2016
oniyide said:
Soundwave said:

 

VR is already being used in some buisness settings. I know a guy who uses it to give tours of houses. Its bigger than people here know and most here really dont know what they are saying anyway

I can actually imagine that being pretty good.

Instead of driveing around from 1 house to the next, you take a virtual tour first (at the office), then if you like the house, you drive out there and see if its in decent condition.

You ll save a bunch of time. Its something that ll attract customers for the experiance/ease of it too, and Im sure the guy giveing the house tours will love it aswell (makes his job alot easier).



ps4tw on 28 March 2016
Conina said:
ps4tw said:

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Playstation TV, Wii U, PS Vita and almost any hyped product had great pre-orders: http://wololo.net/2014/06/11/playstation-tv-now-available-for-preorder-already-a-bestseller/

These "better than expected" announcements seem to be in the PR rule books for every product launch.

And of course they always climb to the top of amazon-bestseller lists at first: Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft each have a big enough fan base that their die-hard-fans preorder anything from their favorite brand, just in case... they have enough time to cancel that preorder after they thought it through. And then there are also the scalpers... there is a high probability for every console/handheld/peripheral/iPhone launch that the supply can't meet the demand so the reselling prices go way up for a while. If these prices don't go up, they can just cancel their preorders with no money invested.

It's not just hype pushed by the parent company though is it, and the preorders are far higher than any of those listed items, making the comparison void. 

Your point about an existing fanbase is irrelevant - what fan base does Vive and Oculus have?

zorg1000 said:
ps4tw said:

So:
- Selling 15,000 units in 10 minutes (Vive)
- "more pre orders than [Palmer Lucky] could have ever expected" (Oculus)
-  Over $2 billion invested into VR
- In Amazom best selling lists across the world

isn't "a really big thing right out of the gate"?! The proof is in front of you, but you refuse to see it for some bizarre reason. 

Looks like analysts are joint in their opinion that VR is a big thing. Also, if you bothered to quote the entire article, you'd see that expected sales range from 8 million to 4 million in the first two years - a 100% difference in sales is a large range so realistically the number could be anywhere from 3 million upwards with what we currently know of it. I don't get the relevance of the Wii U comment...All it shows is how laughably little the WIi U sells. 

Analysts in the same article expect:
- PSVR to sell 1.6 million by the end of the year
- Sieze a 64% market share of VR
- Have a potential market of 53 million customers by 2017

That is incredibly successful, and has brought the Move controller back from the dead. Please enlighten me to what you arbitrarilycount "successful" as, because it seems once again to be completely different to what the actual market considers success to be...

8 million in 2 years doesnt really seem like a lot when u consider that Kinect sold 8 million in 2 months and about 20 million in 2 years.

Like i have said before and you keep ignoring, preorders for these type of products do not necessarily translate to long term sales, all it shows is that they will sell well at launch.

But im not an expert in product management or market positioning so what i say is invalid, right?

VR and Kinect are very different products  - comapring them 1:1 makes no sense, plus you are overlooking the major fact that they are expected to sieze 64% of the market, which is staggering. 

You are ignoring more than the preorders which is a problem - look at:
 a) the success of the preorders
 b) market investment

Well what you say, as shown above, is missing some major points. It's not invalid, but it is flawed. I'm not sure why people here expect to accurately predict the market and have compelling arguments when they have no experience or knowledge in what is a large industry sector.