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Forums - Gaming - Forbes - Is the death of consoles inevitable?

AlfredoTurkey on 08 March 2016
bunchanumbers said:
The last traditional console maker will be Nintendo. MS will be the first one gone followed by Sony. The last years will be pretty sad. The big yearly AAA franchises will be gone. Nintendo will be bravely moving forward with their first party IPs and some indies. The gaming industry will shrink back down to the pre AAA explosion days. Pretty much it will return to being a niche group again.

That actually doesn't sound like such a bad thing when you think about it lol



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Sixteenvolt420 on 08 March 2016

Yeah, obviously it won't be anytime soon. I mean how much faster they're selling this gen. proves that.



bunchanumbers on 08 March 2016
AlfredoTurkey said:
bunchanumbers said:
The last traditional console maker will be Nintendo. MS will be the first one gone followed by Sony. The last years will be pretty sad. The big yearly AAA franchises will be gone. Nintendo will be bravely moving forward with their first party IPs and some indies. The gaming industry will shrink back down to the pre AAA explosion days. Pretty much it will return to being a niche group again.

That actually doesn't sound like such a bad thing when you think about it lol

It won't be. At least for Nintendo. But the shrinking and the fallout of the AAA publishers will be really ugly. There will be massive layoffs and many shutdowns. Many will be trying to sell their wares on mobile. Some devs and publishers won't be recognizable. Nintendo is the only one who is self sustainable so they will end up being the last one standing. But the gaming market will be a shell of itself.



AlfredoTurkey on 08 March 2016
bunchanumbers said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

That actually doesn't sound like such a bad thing when you think about it lol

It won't be. At least for Nintendo. But the shrinking and the fallout of the AAA publishers will be really ugly. There will be massive layoffs and many shutdowns. Many will be trying to sell their wares on mobile. Some devs and publishers won't be recognizable. Nintendo is the only one who is self sustainable so they will end up being the last one standing. But the gaming market will be a shell of itself.

Sounds similar to 1983 imo and Nintendo brought it all back. Maybe a new player comes out of nowhere and does the same thing again? 



zorg1000 on 08 March 2016
bunchanumbers said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

That actually doesn't sound like such a bad thing when you think about it lol

It won't be. At least for Nintendo. But the shrinking and the fallout of the AAA publishers will be really ugly. There will be massive layoffs and many shutdowns. Many will be trying to sell their wares on mobile. Some devs and publishers won't be recognizable. Nintendo is the only one who is self sustainable so they will end up being the last one standing. But the gaming market will be a shell of itself.

What exactly makes you think all or most AAA publishers will shrink/fallout?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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bunchanumbers on 08 March 2016
zorg1000 said:
bunchanumbers said:

It won't be. At least for Nintendo. But the shrinking and the fallout of the AAA publishers will be really ugly. There will be massive layoffs and many shutdowns. Many will be trying to sell their wares on mobile. Some devs and publishers won't be recognizable. Nintendo is the only one who is self sustainable so they will end up being the last one standing. But the gaming market will be a shell of itself.

What exactly makes you think all or most AAA publishers will shrink/fallout?

console sales numbers. They are not what they were last gen. It means that AAA publishers are doing different things to try to get more money. $50 season passes. Deluxe Digital bundles. Early Access style launches etc. There's already backlash to these things. Look at SF5. Eventually these techniques won't keep them in the green and the AAA publishers will end up contracting because of it.

Plus the vast majority of the gaming revenue is dependent on yearly franchises like Madden, Fifa, and CoD. Eventually franchise fatigue will end up drying up this well and the balloon will burst.



Wagram on 08 March 2016

I feel like they rehash the same articles over and over.



AlfredoTurkey on 08 March 2016
BraLoD said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

Sounds similar to 1983 imo and Nintendo brought it all back. Maybe a new player comes out of nowhere and does the same thing again? 

So where does exactly PlayStation dies there to anyone even needs to bring anything back? PlayStation is stronger than ever, why would we need Nintendo and a 'new player' to bring something that won't be even close to dying while PlayStation is there? Pure wishing?

Calm down lol. In this particular scenario, major third parties have all but vanished. We all know the bulk of sales for Playstation is via third party. Take a look at the attatch ratio for their first party games. How many of them have really high attach rates? Not many. Nintendo's IP have some really ridiculous attach rates which is why he said they're self sustaining. They don't NEED third party support to turn a buck. Nintendo was more profitable than either Sony or Microsofts game divisions last quarter and it is all pretty much thanks to their own games. Sony and MS would collapse in those same situations... 



zorg1000 on 08 March 2016
Ka-pi96 said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

Calm down lol. In this particular scenario, major third parties have all but vanished. We all know the bulk of sales for Playstation is via third party. Take a look at the attatch ratio for their first party games. How many of them have really high attach rates? Not many. Nintendo's IP have some really ridiculous attach rates which is why he said they're self sustaining. They don't NEED third party support to turn a buck. Nintendo was more profitable than either Sony or Microsofts game divisions last quarter and it is all pretty much thanks to their own games. Sony and MS would collapse in those same situations... 

Last quarter would be FY2015 Q3 right?

Sony http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/15q3_sony.pdf
Revenue: ¥587.1B
Operating Income: ¥40.2B

Nintendo http://nintendoeverything.com/nintendo-reports-q3-fy15-financial-results/
Revenue: ¥271.521B
Operating Income: ¥31.4B

How were they more profitable?

So they had 3/4 the operating income with less than 1/2 the revenue?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

jigokutamago on 08 March 2016

Yes, it is inevitable.

So is the death of the sun but that is besides the point.