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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft will launch the Xbox Two in 2017 or 2018

 

When will the Xbox Two launch?

this year 22 3.14%
 
in 2017 34 4.86%
 
in 2018 147 21.00%
 
in 2019 239 34.14%
 
in 2020 156 22.29%
 
after 2020 102 14.57%
 
Total:700
Swordmasterman said:
Mr Puggsly said:

More importantly, the X1 was up YOY. VR isn't a proven success at its price yet and NX another uncertain thing. The exclsives MS has announced for PC are exclusives to WIndows Store and won't have a significant if any impact on X1. I know this because many best selling X1 and PS4 games are on PC.

I'm gonna be conservative and say X1 might do 8 million again this year. Especially if they are competitive with price and its exclusives are good.

Already Doom the console? No, Doom is out later this year.

But hey, we can end this conversation. I get it, you think everything is going wrong for Xbox and its on a downward spiral. Understood...

VR, is something that will eat sales of someone that have a PS4, and was thinking of geting a second Machine, it can be sucessful like Wii, but no one knows, NX, of course will be a Strong competitor, of course more than Wii U, Nintendo, will not do the same mistakes twice.

And About Nintendo 64, Nintendo 64, had Tons of Third Party Support, Had Tony Hawk Pro Skater, the best of genre, and maybe one of the best games of all times, had Resident Evil, one of the biggest revelations of the Generation, and had a good ammount of Exclusives, on 2000, still release Perfect Dark, Majora's Mask, and Kirby 64.

The Playstation 1, Had Exclusives, because of that the Console sold so well, Sony, was not binding the Developers for the PS1, just like Nintendo, did with Sega, they only wanted to make the game Exclusive for Playstation, but Nintendo 64, had a lot of games.

What games did Nintendo 64, did not got ?, Final Fantasy 7 ?, Xbox One, also is not geting this tittle, Dragon Quest ?, Xbox One, also is not geting those tittles, Ace Combat ?, Xbox One, also will not get those tittle, You say that Exclusives does not move Sales, but now they move ?, and Nintendo 64, had over 80 Game launchs on the year of 2000, so the game indeed had Third Party Support.

The Wii U, have over 688 Titles, most Re-releases of games from previous consoles.

Xbox One, have 499 games acording to Wikipedia, and 355 is Multiplataform, 71/31 Timed, or Console Exclusive, Microsoft Exclusive 7, Exclusive 37.

Playstation 4, have 956 Games acording to Wikipedia, and 527 is Multiplataform, 200 Console Exclusive, 32 Timed, 98 Sony Exclusive, 99 Exclusive.

So Exclusives is what sell consoles, People know that Multiplataform, will still be Multiplataform, because of That, Exclusives are what Matters.

And how do you know that Xbox One, will have much more Support Than Nintendo 64 ?, Nintendo, had 4 Years of Supports with Big Releases, here we are at Xbox One's Second year, Microsoft, is sending everything from their studios for PC, and  even if all were exclusives, would still have less exclusives than Playstation, and Microsoft, abandoned the Xbox 360, late on the Life-cicle, only releasing Halo, and Forza, now they can Release Halo, Forza, and Gears, but seems that they will support the PC, over the Console.

Hey, lets just wait and see.

I stand by what I said, I feel X1 support is much better and it will last longer. I'm not gonna bother with a list war.



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Mr Puggsly said:
zorg1000 said:

3rd party support does not guarantee strong legs, as the PS4:XB1 ratio increases so does the ratio between multiplat titles making it easier for Sony to secure exclusive content & timed exclusives, we are already seeing this happen and its going to continue.

N64 & XB1 share a very similar audience, shooter/sports/racing/action are/were very strong on both devices. Also we have no idea if Microsoft is going to supply XB1 with strong 1st/2nd party support after 2017, they will have released pretty much all of their big hitters by the end of this year, 2017 and beyond will likely just be sequels and unproven franchises.

You say XB1 has many things going for it but you really don't list any substantial reasons why its going to have longer legs than N64.  Don't get me wrong, in not saying XB1 will have short legs, just that we shouldn't rule out the possibility.

3rd party support is crucial part of strong legs. Notable exclusives on top of having the big 3rd party games found on the competitor is important. I think you're ignoring X1's exclusives and timed exclusives. I assume X1 will get more as well. Some people just assume the market leader gets all the support.

Hypothetically, if 1st party support on X1 ends on 2017 the console will continue to get notable 3rd party games longer than N64 because X1 can easily share games with PS4 and X1 does a great job moving 3rd party games.

I've give you substantial reasons. Most importantly, X1 gets better 3rd party support.

No you haven't given reasons, you gave a single reason, 3rd party support, which in and of itself does not guarantee legs.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Mr Puggsly said:

3rd party support is crucial part of strong legs. Notable exclusives on top of having the big 3rd party games found on the competitor is important. I think you're ignoring X1's exclusives and timed exclusives. I assume X1 will get more as well. Some people just assume the market leader gets all the support.

Hypothetically, if 1st party support on X1 ends on 2017 the console will continue to get notable 3rd party games longer than N64 because X1 can easily share games with PS4 and X1 does a great job moving 3rd party games.

I've give you substantial reasons. Most importantly, X1 gets better 3rd party support.

No you haven't given reasons, you gave a single reason, 3rd party support, which in and of itself does not guarantee legs.

Okay, strong software doesn't move hardware. That makes sense.



Recently Completed
River City: Rival Showdown
for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

Mr Puggsly said:
zorg1000 said:

No you haven't given reasons, you gave a single reason, 3rd party support, which in and of itself does not guarantee legs.

Okay, strong software doesn't move hardware. That makes sense.

Well for one, I never said that and even so there are many more factors than that which determine legs.

You could easily make a case that XB1 has had the better holiday lineup all 3 years yet it didn't stop PS4 from outselling it each of those 3 holiday seasons.

PS4 is the console of choice for the majority of multiplat games and as the gap between PS4 & XB1 increases so will the sales of multiplat titles. For the most part, PS4 & XB1 are directly competing for the same audience/demographics so as PS4 momentum increases, XB1 momentum potentially decreases.

You mentioned 1st party games earlier but Microsoft doesn't really have a whole lot of big system selling 1st party franchises. Halo is their biggest and that is already out along with showing a rather large decline from previous entries, Forza has multiple entries and again has declined from its peak on 360. Games like Quantum Break & Crackdown look like quality titles but will they be big system sellers? Based on Alan Wake & the first 2 Crackdowns, I would say not likely. Scalebound looks good but pretty niche and games by Platinum typically don't sell extremely well despite being quality titles. Gears is the last of their proven, big franchises to release and it could very well see a decline like Halo/Forza did.

Again, in not saying XB1 wont have legs just that its not a guarantee that it will.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mr Puggsly said:
Swordmasterman said:

VR, is something that will eat sales of someone that have a PS4, and was thinking of geting a second Machine, it can be sucessful like Wii, but no one knows, NX, of course will be a Strong competitor, of course more than Wii U, Nintendo, will not do the same mistakes twice.

And About Nintendo 64, Nintendo 64, had Tons of Third Party Support, Had Tony Hawk Pro Skater, the best of genre, and maybe one of the best games of all times, had Resident Evil, one of the biggest revelations of the Generation, and had a good ammount of Exclusives, on 2000, still release Perfect Dark, Majora's Mask, and Kirby 64.

The Playstation 1, Had Exclusives, because of that the Console sold so well, Sony, was not binding the Developers for the PS1, just like Nintendo, did with Sega, they only wanted to make the game Exclusive for Playstation, but Nintendo 64, had a lot of games.

What games did Nintendo 64, did not got ?, Final Fantasy 7 ?, Xbox One, also is not geting this tittle, Dragon Quest ?, Xbox One, also is not geting those tittles, Ace Combat ?, Xbox One, also will not get those tittle, You say that Exclusives does not move Sales, but now they move ?, and Nintendo 64, had over 80 Game launchs on the year of 2000, so the game indeed had Third Party Support.

The Wii U, have over 688 Titles, most Re-releases of games from previous consoles.

Xbox One, have 499 games acording to Wikipedia, and 355 is Multiplataform, 71/31 Timed, or Console Exclusive, Microsoft Exclusive 7, Exclusive 37.

Playstation 4, have 956 Games acording to Wikipedia, and 527 is Multiplataform, 200 Console Exclusive, 32 Timed, 98 Sony Exclusive, 99 Exclusive.

So Exclusives is what sell consoles, People know that Multiplataform, will still be Multiplataform, because of That, Exclusives are what Matters.

And how do you know that Xbox One, will have much more Support Than Nintendo 64 ?, Nintendo, had 4 Years of Supports with Big Releases, here we are at Xbox One's Second year, Microsoft, is sending everything from their studios for PC, and  even if all were exclusives, would still have less exclusives than Playstation, and Microsoft, abandoned the Xbox 360, late on the Life-cicle, only releasing Halo, and Forza, now they can Release Halo, Forza, and Gears, but seems that they will support the PC, over the Console.

Hey, lets just wait and see.

I stand by what I said, I feel X1 support is much better and it will last longer. I'm not gonna bother with a list war.

So, if Xbox One, Struggle on  less than 30 Millions units sold, and PS4, surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that both will have the same support ?, and if Nintendo NX, also Surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that they will support, you cannot predict if Xbox One, will have more support, even with Microsoft, don't giving exclusives for it, and the Sales Dropping even on USA.

 

Nintendo 64, was a failure for you isn't ?, the console sold over 20 Millions on USA, and other 12 Millions Worldwide, i think that is unlikely to Xbox One, sell this much Worldwide, the Xbox, will have to rely only on USA.



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zorg1000 said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Okay, strong software doesn't move hardware. That makes sense.

Well for one, I never said that and even so there are many more factors than that which determine legs.

You could easily make a case that XB1 has had the better holiday lineup all 3 years yet it didn't stop PS4 from outselling it each of those 3 holiday seasons.

PS4 is the console of choice for the majority of multiplat games and as the gap between PS4 & XB1 increases so will the sales of multiplat titles. For the most part, PS4 & XB1 are directly competing for the same audience/demographics so as PS4 momentum increases, XB1 momentum potentially decreases.

You mentioned 1st party games earlier but Microsoft doesn't really have a whole lot of big system selling 1st party franchises. Halo is their biggest and that is already out along with showing a rather large decline from previous entries, Forza has multiple entries and again has declined from its peak on 360. Games like Quantum Break & Crackdown look like quality titles but will they be big system sellers? Based on Alan Wake & the first 2 Crackdowns, I would say not likely. Scalebound looks good but pretty niche and games by Platinum typically don't sell extremely well despite being quality titles. Gears is the last of their proven, big franchises to release and it could very well see a decline like Halo/Forza did.

Again, in not saying XB1 wont have legs just that its not a guarantee that it will.

I expect steady sales. Because continued support from MS, 3rd parties, and eventual price cuts.

Their exclusives and 3rd party support combined will move hardware.

You have low expectations and downplay any success. Decline isnt inherently doomed.



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Swordmasterman said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Hey, lets just wait and see.

I stand by what I said, I feel X1 support is much better and it will last longer. I'm not gonna bother with a list war.

So, if Xbox One, Struggle on  less than 30 Millions units sold, and PS4, surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that both will have the same support ?, and if Nintendo NX, also Surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that they will support, you cannot predict if Xbox One, will have more support, even with Microsoft, don't giving exclusives for it, and the Sales Dropping even on USA.

 

Nintendo 64, was a failure for you isn't ?, the console sold over 20 Millions on USA, and other 12 Millions Worldwide, i think that is unlikely to Xbox One, sell this much Worldwide, the Xbox, will have to rely only on USA.

Hypothetically, if X1 only sold 30 million, support would depend on how much software it could move. Think about it, OG Xbox got a lot of support, many exclusives and console exclusives as well with a userbase smaller than 30 million.

X1 will sell more units than N64 in the US and outside the US.

I dont consider N64 a failure. But 3rd party  support was an issue and its support didnt last long. I think OG Xbox was supported longer because 3rd parties.



Recently Completed
River City: Rival Showdown
for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

Mr Puggsly said:
Swordmasterman said:

So, if Xbox One, Struggle on  less than 30 Millions units sold, and PS4, surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that both will have the same support ?, and if Nintendo NX, also Surpass 100 Millions, do you really think that they will support, you cannot predict if Xbox One, will have more support, even with Microsoft, don't giving exclusives for it, and the Sales Dropping even on USA.

 

Nintendo 64, was a failure for you isn't ?, the console sold over 20 Millions on USA, and other 12 Millions Worldwide, i think that is unlikely to Xbox One, sell this much Worldwide, the Xbox, will have to rely only on USA.

Hypothetically, if X1 only sold 30 million, support would depend on how much software it could move. Think about it, OG Xbox got a lot of support, many exclusives and console exclusives as well with a userbase smaller than 30 million.

X1 will sell more units than N64 in the US and outside the US.

I dont consider N64 a failure. But 3rd party  support was an issue and its support didnt last long. I think OG Xbox was supported longer because 3rd parties.

OG Xbox, got games until 2006, is 5 Years of Support, the Nintendo 64, had games until 2001, also is 5 years of Support, Having more support than other Machine, does not means that will last longer.

The Xbox One, can have heavy support on the early-middle of the gen, but if Microsoft, drop it, maybe it will lose support, we will know more about this on the Windows Event.



Swordmasterman said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Hypothetically, if X1 only sold 30 million, support would depend on how much software it could move. Think about it, OG Xbox got a lot of support, many exclusives and console exclusives as well with a userbase smaller than 30 million.

X1 will sell more units than N64 in the US and outside the US.

I dont consider N64 a failure. But 3rd party  support was an issue and its support didnt last long. I think OG Xbox was supported longer because 3rd parties.

OG Xbox, got games until 2006, is 5 Years of Support, the Nintendo 64, had games until 2001, also is 5 years of Support, Having more support than other Machine, does not means that will last longer.

The Xbox One, can have heavy support on the early-middle of the gen, but if Microsoft, drop it, maybe it will lose support, we will know more about this on the Windows Event.

No, you got it wrong. 2006 was the last year of OG Xbox's strong 3rd party support. In 2007 it got annual sports titles and casual stuff. The final game appears to be a Madden game in 2008. So technically 8 years of support.

The N64 had poor 3rd party support in 1996 and support began to dry up in 2001 with Gamecube launching. In 2002 N64 had a pretty crappy version of Tony Hawk 3, that appears to be the final game. So technically 7 years of support.

Both had a good six years of support. N64 relied more on 1st party while Xbox managed to do well with 3rd parties.

People criticized MS for pulling OG Xbox support too soon. But 3rd parties kept some good stuff coming. Hence, 3rd parties would likely support Xbox One as well even if MS pulls 1st party support.

A few things to consider as well. OG Xbox had significantly more games than N64 in spite of selling less units. A major reason for that was OG Xbox was easy to support. It basically used PC hardware, it received a lot of PS2 ports, it received PC ports PS2 couldnt handle, MS aquired a lot of exclusive support from 3rd parties, it had games Sony rejected like 2D games, and its dirt cheap to manufacture DVD discs compared to N64 carts.

If MS continues to give X1 strong support until 2019 maybe it will sell 50 million units. Frankly, as long as the userbase north of 30 million, with its ability to handle PS4 games and strong sales of major releases, support for X1 will continue from 3rd parties for a good while.



Recently Completed
River City: Rival Showdown
for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

Mr Puggsly said:
Swordmasterman said:

OG Xbox, got games until 2006, is 5 Years of Support, the Nintendo 64, had games until 2001, also is 5 years of Support, Having more support than other Machine, does not means that will last longer.

The Xbox One, can have heavy support on the early-middle of the gen, but if Microsoft, drop it, maybe it will lose support, we will know more about this on the Windows Event.

No, you got it wrong. 2006 was the last year of OG Xbox's strong 3rd party support. In 2007 it got annual sports titles and casual stuff. The final game appears to be a Madden game in 2008. So technically 8 years of support.

The N64 had poor 3rd party support in 1996 and support began to dry up in 2001 with Gamecube launching. In 2002 N64 had a pretty crappy version of Tony Hawk 3, that appears to be the final game. So technically 7 years of support.

Both had a good six years of support. N64 relied more on 1st party while Xbox managed to do well with 3rd parties.

People criticized MS for pulling OG Xbox support too soon. But 3rd kept some good stuff coming. Hence, 3rd would like support Xbox One as well even if MS pulls 1st support.

A few things to consider as well. OG Xbox had significantly more games than N64 in spite of selling less units. A major reason for that was OG Xbox was easy to support. It basically used PC hardware, it received a lot of PS2 ports, it received PC ports PS2 couldnt handle, it had games Sony rejected like 2D games, and its cheap to manufacture discs compared to N64 carts.

If MS continues to give X1 strong support until 2019 maybe it will sell 50 million units. Frankly, as long as the userbase north of 30 million, with its ability to handle PS4 games and strong sales of major releases, support for X1 will continue from 3rd parties for a good while.

You really expect that Xbox One, will sell 50 Millions ?, they are having a Hard time with Japan, Europe, and Worldwide, they only have USA, The Xbox One, i think that after 1 year, sold over the same that Xbox 360, sold on Launch, on Japan.

 

How  much do you think that it will sell ? 30 Millions on USA, and 20 Millions Worldwide ?.