Prediction: Microsoft will launch the Xbox Two in 2017 or 2018

[Mr Puggsly]

zorg1000 said:

Mr Puggsly said:

Okay, strong software doesn't move hardware. That makes sense.

Well for one, I never said that and even so there are many more factors than that which determine legs.

You could easily make a case that XB1 has had the better holiday lineup all 3 years yet it didn't stop PS4 from outselling it each of those 3 holiday seasons.

PS4 is the console of choice for the majority of multiplat games and as the gap between PS4 & XB1 increases so will the sales of multiplat titles. For the most part, PS4 & XB1 are directly competing for the same audience/demographics so as PS4 momentum increases, XB1 momentum potentially decreases.

You mentioned 1st party games earlier but Microsoft doesn't really have a whole lot of big system selling 1st party franchises. Halo is their biggest and that is already out along with showing a rather large decline from previous entries, Forza has multiple entries and again has declined from its peak on 360. Games like Quantum Break & Crackdown look like quality titles but will they be big system sellers? Based on Alan Wake & the first 2 Crackdowns, I would say not likely. Scalebound looks good but pretty niche and games by Platinum typically don't sell extremely well despite being quality titles. Gears is the last of their proven, big franchises to release and it could very well see a decline like Halo/Forza did.

Again, in not saying XB1 wont have legs just that its not a guarantee that it will.

I expect steady sales. Because continued support from MS, 3rd parties, and eventual price cuts.

Their exclusives and 3rd party support combined will move hardware.

You have low expectations and downplay any success. Decline isnt inherently doomed.