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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Opinion: As earlier NX releases, as bigger are the chances it wont be what your waiting for.

JNK said:

So many people are still believing in / hoping for an NX release Nov´16.

I think an NX release ´16 will be horrible for all of us.

What do you expect from NX? You want an real console, a competition for Ps4/xbox one with games like: F-Zero, Metroid Prime, Zelda and co right? Probl with good third party support?

Im sure this wont happen in 2016. It would ne stupid.

NOBODY would buy a competiter to ps4/xbox one in 2016.

Many of my friends just got an ps4, do you know why? Because many of their friends had an ps4 already so they could play online together. Thats the main reason many people are purchasing a console.

In 2016/2017 there will be the ps4 with an installed hw base of ~50mio units vs the NX with probl ~5 Mio Units. People wont get the NX because they dont know other people who got it. 

This was exactly the same sceanrio the wii u ran into in 2012. It was the strongest console in 2012/2013q3. But nobody bought it or bought the third party games for it. They got them on ps3/xbox 360 because that was were their friends at.

 

So the only possibility NX will release 2016 is: We will get another Wii. A console aimed heavily on the casual market. No Metroid Prime, No F-Zero, but Just Dance, Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

 

Do you still want NX to be released 2016?

Wow. I know it's your opinion, and I respect it, but you know all of that... how?

We now almost anything about the NX! As I see it, it could be the best Nintendo console ever, or the worst, or even an average console. Until we get some official information from Nintendo all we can do is speculate.

If they release the NX so "early" we're getting another wii? Well, that sucks, I bet Nintendo don't want that. Who would want to sell 100m of consoles? Crazy, right?

Also, how can you be so sure about all of those games missing at launch or missing at all? Have you seen Nintendo's output these past year? There have been some great games, but lots were cheap and quick games to fill the catalog. Are you seriously expecting Nintendo have been doing nothing for the NX all this time? Retro and ead 1 I think, have been working for two years on something, and some small games being filler indicate that they are indeed working on the NX. 

If I had to choose, I'll be the happiest man if they release NX platform in november 2016. If it's good and has good games and price people will buy it. Think about this, maybe people do the same as with the ps4, and 50m buy it "because my friend has bought it, so me too" xD

The only thing I agree with you is that maybe, just maybe, if they release it "too soon" it won't be what I'm expecting. I'd love it to have most of the leaked patents, specially that awesome free form controller, and it might be too soon for that (expensive, actually). But games? I'm sure they'll have plenty of games for the NX first year on the market.

At least that's what we should expect from them, to have learnt something from the wii u's failure.

But I'm optimistic. Merging handheld and console developing looks promising. I read somewhere that they release 18-24 games on average every year for both, now, if NX is really capable to play the same games in both, that would mean almost zero droughts. Everybody wins :P



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Miyamotoo said:
Darwinianevolution said:

Does anyone have that revenue table of Nintendo-PS-Microsoft? If I remember correctly, the losses of the PS3 and the 360 meant that their companies earned little to no profit during that era, but I can't find that comparaison anywhere.





 

Dear lord. Are those numbers right? Why is people not saying microsoft should go third party? Instead of the same old shit with Nintendo.

I know very little from xbox. Are they even profitable? I thought they were a beast as well, though not as big as sony.



I actually agree with you. But I think that's a good thing.

There is already a PS4 on the market. We don't need another one. If Nintendo is just going to have a PS4 like system with Nintendo games, I'd rather they just go third party.



JNK said:

NOBODY would buy a competiter to ps4/xbox one in 2016.

I would. I'll buy NX in 2016.





NX is a platform anyway, likely not just a "system". This is an important distinction to make, it means NX is not any singular device.

As such an earlier release is better IMO.

For all head starts are *not* bad. Having a headstart helped the Genesis eventually hang tough with the Super NES because Sega had several years to build up a library.

The headstart definitely helped the Playstation establish itself before the N64 came to market too and make brand inroads big time.

The headstart for the PS2 basically won them the generation.

XBox 360 was helped by its year headstart too.

It's just a matter of not being completely outdated with your tech, which is the problem with the Wii U, but lets be honest, that is hardly the best chip Nintendo could have had for 2012, they very easily could've had a 1 TFLOP GPU (in line with the XB1 at least).

It's Nintendo's own insistence on the stupid "underpowered" hardware that hasn't helped them of late (it's not even that cheap to boot).

They need to go back to the SNES-GameCube design philosophy of good, relatively modern hardware which can still be sold at a reasonable price.

And then in 2017/2018 IMO they could release a 4K home NX which matches up evenly with the PS5. Most of the PS5's visual "jump" over the PS4 will be eaten up by that need to run 4K games anyway.

So just have multiple hardware models. The key is to get people locked into the NX ecosystem, once you do that it's much easier for the consumer to stay within the NX ecosystem rather than buy a seperate PS5/XB2 ... if I can just keep my game library and upgrade the hardware when I feel the need to, that's fine.



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bdbdbd said:
JNK said:

 


"NOBODY would buy a competiter to ps4/xbox one in 2016.

Many of my friends just got an ps4, do you know why? Because many of their friends had an ps4 already so they could play online together. Thats the main reason many people are purchasing a console.

In 2016/2017 there will be the ps4 with an installed hw base of ~50mio units vs the NX with probl ~5 Mio Units. People wont get the NX because they dont know other people who got it. 

This was exactly the same sceanrio the wii u ran into in 2012. It was the strongest console in 2012/2013q3. But nobody bought it or bought the third party games for it. They got them on ps3/xbox 360 because that was were their friends at."

 

Why would they buy a competitor in 2017 or 2018? There are just more games available for the two and every reason you used to prove your point, just shouts for an early release before even more people have PS4's so that more of their friends could play online with other PS4 users.

 

because it wont be a direct competitor in 2018. it would be a new gen, a competition to ps5/xbox two. 



JNK said:
bdbdbd said:

 

Why would they buy a competitor in 2017 or 2018? There are just more games available for the two and every reason you used to prove your point, just shouts for an early release before even more people have PS4's so that more of their friends could play online with other PS4 users.

 

because it wont be a direct competitor in 2018. it would be a new gen, a competition to ps5/xbox two. 

 

Depends on what it is, if NX is a platform that can be upgraded, I'd probably rather just pay $200 for a "supplemental computing device" (Nintendo patented this) that beefs up my existing system rather than pay another $400 for a PS5. Plus I already have my existing library of games on my NX. 

I can see the appeal of such an approach. 

Most of the "next-gen" leap is honestly going to be eaten up by the need to support 4K resolution, which is 4x the pixels of 1080P, meaning graphically it may not even be that big of a leap as people think. For a next-gen "4K system" to match say a 3 TFLOP current gen system @1080p, it would have to be in the 12TFLOP+ range.

For Nintendo for the dedicated home console it could be quite smart just to make a really strong 1080P console, PS5/XB2 could have a lot of headaches significantly outperforming while having to render at 4K. 



LipeJJ said:
And when exactly do you suggest it should launch? Cause I see the PS4/XB1 going strong until 2019 or 2020, so to avoid competition they would need to hold on and support the Wii U for more 3 or 4 years? Yeah, that's really impossible/crazy.

I'll tell you something: the NX won't be a PS4², or else it would fail. It will probably be a moderately powerful console with some concept that's new and tries to get people's interest. If it's good, well marketed and has a good quantity of games... it will sell.

 

2018 would be perfect. It can (and needs to be) significant strogner then ps4 but still affordable (not possible in 2016).

Then people who already got an ps4 will consider nx as an alternative to ps5 (similar to what xbox360 did).

 

Just be able to play third party games at little higher settings, resolution or framerate as ps4 wont make much people to get an expensive nx. The would just stay to their ps4. And they wont buy the system for the exclusives, because atm they dont even buy the cheaper wii u for its exclusives.

Most normal console owners just want 1 console/gen, NX cant deliver that in 2016.



They should be able to make something considerably more powerful than a PS4 this year or next year though. You don't need to wait until 2018.

AMD has 14nm/16nm Arctic Islands GPUs coming this year that will blow the PS4's GPU out of the water.

I'd say release a 3TFLOP-range high end console this fall and start building that userbase quick (having Zelda, Splatoon 2, and Mario 3D in the first 6-8 months will be critical).

Then in 2018 release a 4K NX model. 

NX is a platform, it's no single console or portable. Nintendo games just scale up and down, third parties have the choice (games can work on specific models depending on hardware need or all them if they want). 

Why adhere to "rules" if they only benefit Sony/MS. Change the rules, it's 2016, you don't have to keep making hardware like it's 1989 forever. 



Luke888 said:
So you suggest to release the thing when the rival consoles install base is 70Mish instead of when it's 50Mish because everyone would say "All my friends own a PS4, so I'll buy one too" when the console has 50M install base ? don't you think the same could be applicated to 2017 and it would be even WORSE since the instal base is like 20M more ? Shure your argument is full of logic *irony*
AND do you realize that the last title released in the Metroid Prime series was on the Wii, right ? and not only that but we got even a collection with even the first two games along with that ?

The only reason to wait for 2017 over 2016 is for more Horsepower but honestly Nintendo couldn't care less, whatever other console comes from Sony/Microsoft next will launch in 4/5 years from now, it'll certainly be more powerful than the NX. with the current technology it's already possible to make a console that is way more powerful than PS4/X1(hardware from 2012) at almost the same price of those two consoles...
Also in 2017 both consoles will likely get another pricecut to 250 or maybe even 200$, that could be harder to top aiming for the same price if they want to do a more powerful console, even if they use 2016 tech...

nope, never said it should launch 2017. So its logical.

Nonetheless, in 2017 it could already be strong enough to compete against an probl ps5 and be a real 9th gen console.