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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Horizon Zero Dawn > Zelda BoTW

palou on 14 April 2017
celador said:
daredevil.shark said:
1. Meta critic wise Zelda is leagues ahead of horizon.

it's only 8 points difference

Scores should not be compared linearly, especially considering that the system is bounded.

 

Another perspective (not necessarily more accurate, you probably need to look at both, make a bell curve of scores) is that Horizon is almost 4 times as far from a perfect score.



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palou on 14 April 2017
Johnw1104 said:
celador said:

it's only 8 points difference

To be fair, those points matter a heck of a lot more in context. The difference between reaching 97 and 89 is far more meaningful than, say, 89 and 81. It's damn near impossible to top 96.

Either way, the OP's predictions seemed rather reasonable. I really didn't know what to expect from Zelda and, even being cautiously optimistic, I was also blown away by the game we got; they far outperformed what I thought they were capable of in their first true open world 3D adventure game.

Seriously, you only need to watch this video where other devs are interviewed to see how crazy impressive it is that Nintendo stuck the landing so perfectly on their first go of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk-EnbS42dM

Likewise, Horizon looked beautiful from the start and were far less secretive than Nintendo was, so at the time the only game we could be rather confident would be excellent was Horizon. Otherwise, the sales predcitions make perfect sense given the context. He wasn't right, but he had the courage to post his reasoned prediction, something I never feel confident to do myself lol

In the end, both were excellent, and that's the only thing I would have been willing to predict. Trying to ">" which will be more excellent than the other is little more than a blind guess.

Could someone make a score bellcurve at some point? That would visualize the situation much more objectively.



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Johnw1104 on 14 April 2017
palou said:
Johnw1104 said:

To be fair, those points matter a heck of a lot more in context. The difference between reaching 97 and 89 is far more meaningful than, say, 89 and 81. It's damn near impossible to top 96.

Either way, the OP's predictions seemed rather reasonable. I really didn't know what to expect from Zelda and, even being cautiously optimistic, I was also blown away by the game we got; they far outperformed what I thought they were capable of in their first true open world 3D adventure game.

Seriously, you only need to watch this video where other devs are interviewed to see how crazy impressive it is that Nintendo stuck the landing so perfectly on their first go of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk-EnbS42dM

Likewise, Horizon looked beautiful from the start and were far less secretive than Nintendo was, so at the time the only game we could be rather confident would be excellent was Horizon. Otherwise, the sales predcitions make perfect sense given the context. He wasn't right, but he had the courage to post his reasoned prediction, something I never feel confident to do myself lol

In the end, both were excellent, and that's the only thing I would have been willing to predict. Trying to ">" which will be more excellent than the other is little more than a blind guess.

Could someone make a score bellcurve at some point? That would visualize the situation much more objectively.

Yeah, it's definitely harder to describe verbally than it is to illustrate on a graph.

It'd likely take a few hours, but I imagine we could get it done if limiting ourselves to, say, the last few gens (perhaps beginning with the Xbox360/PS3/Wii when modern online reviewing really took hold). For a quick illustration, if you look through all games since that gen and only count multiplats once, there's only been five titles that reached 97 or higher on metacritic. In that span, only one (GTA IV for Xbox360) reached 98, and Zelda was very much at the high end of 97 (only dropping from 98 a couple weeks after release).

It's certainly at the extreme end of the bell curve.



wolflink on 14 April 2017

ZELDA > HORIZON
As today

There is no guarantee that Horizon brand will continue to exist.



palou on 14 April 2017
Johnw1104 said:
palou said:

Could someone make a score bellcurve at some point? That would visualize the situation much more objectively.

Yeah, it's definitely harder to describe verbally than it is to illustrate on a graph.

It'd likely take a few hours, but I imagine we could get it done if limiting ourselves to, say, the last few gens (perhaps beginning with the Xbox360/PS3/Wii when modern online reviewing really took hold). For a quick illustration, if you look through all games since that gen and only count multiplats once, there's only been five titles that reached 97 or higher on metacritic. In that span, only one (GTA IV for Xbox360) reached 98, and Zelda was very much at the high end of 97 (only dropping from 98 a couple weeks after release).

It's certainly at the extreme end of the bell curve.

Don't ask me why, I checked the standard deviation on metacritic for the last 90 days...

That would put Zelda at 2.25 standard deviations above average, and HZD at 1.544.

 

Again, the data is bounded, so the bell curve isn't ideal, either, but it's better than a direct comparision.

 

Could of course force it into the model, but don't want to right now...



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leo-j on 14 April 2017

Horizon sold more than zelda did month 1



 

mM
StreaK on 14 April 2017
leo-j said:
Horizon sold more than zelda did month 1

Yep!

And I believe both games will actually sell in the range of 7-8+ million copies lifetime. For Zelda it's a given as on average, all Zelda games fall within the 6-7 million range. But for Horizon, that would be HUGE because it has no fan following. Only now it is earning fans. People are in love with Alloy after playing this game.



tbone51 on 14 April 2017
CGI-Quality said:
wolflink said:
There is no guarantee that Horizon brand will continue to exist.

My reaction as well



Train wreck on 14 April 2017

*Checks sales charts from the world over*...yep, Horizon Zero Dawn is still one of the best (if not the best) selling playstation game in the world right now. When are people expecting this slowdown honestly?



tbone51 on 14 April 2017
leo-j said:
Horizon sold more than zelda did month 1

HDZ sold more in 14 days vs zelda in 30 days to be more accurate (you didnt stamp a time) and actually that might not be true. (For that time frame)

 

HDZ sold 2.6mil in 2 weeks.

Zelda sold 1.8mil+ Minimum in US/Japan. At least another 500k to add to that, so zelda could be at 2.3mil-2.8mil sold. Just depends. And its a marathon not a sprint. Read below for more info

StreaK said:
leo-j said:
Horizon sold more than zelda did month 1

Yep!

And I believe both games will actually sell in the range of 7-8+ million copies lifetime. For Zelda it's a given as on average, all Zelda games fall within the 6-7 million range. But for Horizon, that would be HUGE because it has no fan following. Only now it is earning fans. People are in love with Alloy after playing this game.

HDZ sold extremely fast. It has potienal to get around 9mil-10mil. Its guaranteed minimum of 6mil at this rate. Ill go with 8.5mil+

 

As for LoZ, it is in a similar situation as Twilight Princess. That game sold 8.5mil lifetime and currently BotW is ahead of it launch aligned. Let that sink in for potienal sales.

 

Its going to be pver 6mil too but it can sell between 7mil-11mil imo. Time will tell